Earlier today, I went to Youtube for some office background music, and Youtube suggested a video, called "Tim Lincecum".
It doesn't happen a lot, but in this instance, Youtube was right. In a couple of minutes, I shared it on our tumblr, and got a nice response. So, I figured it's worth a click here.
As our caption on tumblr stated, this video was Tim Lincecum warming up as a member of the Fresno Grizzlies on April 23, 2007. His Major League debut would be exactly two weeks later, and the rest is living history.
Older Posts
Our Return to Dontrelle's Bandwagon
Dontrelle Willis is four games into his comeback. Carrying a 3.52 ERA and 0-1 record into his start in Houston on Wednesday night, D-Train fans have reason for optimism.
According to Fangraphs, Dontrelle Willis has been throwing his changeup better than any starter in baseball, min 20 ip.
Runs Saved per 100 Change Ups
Dontrelle Willis, Reds 8.85
Mike Minor, Braves 4.39
Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies 4.32
Kyle McClellan, Cardinals 4.10
Felix Hernandez, Mariners 3.83
In his limited action since being recalled from Louisville, Dontrelle's walks per 9 innings, BB/9, have returned to passable levels.
Dontrelle Willis BB/9 by Team
Marlins: 3.0
Tigers: 8.2
Diamondbacks: 10.9
Reds: 3.9
Similarly, Dontrelle's SIERA numbers are much improved, even if nowhere near Zack Greinke's level.
Dontrelle Willis SIERA by Season
2003: 3.95
2004: 4.37
2005: 3.86
2006: 4.59
2007: 4.74
2008: 8.31
2009: 6.42
2010: 5.86
2011: 4.15
Facing the Quadruple-A Astros should improve his overall numbers even more. With all due respect to Astros' rookie sensation, Jordan Lyles, I wholeheartedly expect Dontrelle Willis to earn his first Major League win since June 5, 2010.
The Reds are still under .500 and in 4th place, at the moment, but Dusty Baker knows something about getting his competitive teams to finish strong.
Dusty may have difficulty grasping certain nuances of this ever-evolving sport, but he knows hot to get his guys to battle and win playoff births.
The Brewers are still our choice to win the Central, but we feel the Reds have a better chance than St. Louis or Pittsburgh.
Ugh, I can't wait for the Cubs to be relevant again.
According to Fangraphs, Dontrelle Willis has been throwing his changeup better than any starter in baseball, min 20 ip.
Runs Saved per 100 Change Ups
Dontrelle Willis, Reds 8.85
Mike Minor, Braves 4.39
 |
| We're on the bandwagon! |
Kyle McClellan, Cardinals 4.10
Felix Hernandez, Mariners 3.83
In his limited action since being recalled from Louisville, Dontrelle's walks per 9 innings, BB/9, have returned to passable levels.
Dontrelle Willis BB/9 by Team
Marlins: 3.0
Tigers: 8.2
Diamondbacks: 10.9
Reds: 3.9
Similarly, Dontrelle's SIERA numbers are much improved, even if nowhere near Zack Greinke's level.
 |
| Come to the Cubs! |
2003: 3.95
2004: 4.37
2005: 3.86
2006: 4.59
2007: 4.74
2008: 8.31
2009: 6.42
2010: 5.86
2011: 4.15
Facing the Quadruple-A Astros should improve his overall numbers even more. With all due respect to Astros' rookie sensation, Jordan Lyles, I wholeheartedly expect Dontrelle Willis to earn his first Major League win since June 5, 2010.
 |
| Let him bat 1st, daddy |
Dusty may have difficulty grasping certain nuances of this ever-evolving sport, but he knows hot to get his guys to battle and win playoff births.
The Brewers are still our choice to win the Central, but we feel the Reds have a better chance than St. Louis or Pittsburgh.
Ugh, I can't wait for the Cubs to be relevant again.
Player of the Fortnight
The last time we checked player rankings for the past two weeks, on July 10th, our Players of the Fortnight were Jose Bautista, CC Sabathia, Aramis Ramirez, and Madison Bumgarner. Let's take another look now; on the Fangraphs...
NL Batter of the Fortnight
Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
If you've been paying attention to National League ball the past two weeks, this shouldn't be a surprise.
J-Upt's wOBA was over 80 points higher than the next best hitter.
NL wOBA Past 2 Weeks
Justin Upton .603
Ryan Braun .521
Troy Tulowitzki .502
Chase Utley .497
Much of Justin Upton's dominance this season may be attributed to his lower strikeout percentage.
Justin Upton K% by Season
2007: 24.3%
2008: 29.0%
2009: 23.3%
2010: 26.6%
2011: 17.6%
Because of his combination of speed and ability to make solid contact, Justin Upton has always had a very high Batting Average on Balls in Play. His BABIP this season is .333 and .342 over his entire career. So, cutting down on strikeouts will positively affect his production even more than many guys who hit lost of popups and flyballs, or aren't fast enough to beat out infield hits.
Honorable mention: Braun, Tulowitzki, Utley, Dexter Fowler, Cameron Maybin, Freddie Freeman, and Dan Uggla
NL Pitcher of the Fortnight
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
This was another easy selection. Kershaw went 2 - 0 in 2 starts, leading the league in FIP, xFIP, tERA, and SIERA, while finishing 4th in ERA and 5th in K/9.
If you're leading in those four defense independant pitching stats, striking out over 11 per 9ip and walking less than 2 per 9ip, you're going to win this award every time.
Honorable mention: Yovani Gallardo, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke, Ian Kennedy, and Johnny Cueto
AL Batter of the Fortnight
Hideki Matsui, Athletics
Getting hot at the right time could have done more for the A's chances at trading Matsui, yet he didn't go anywhere. In fact, the last I heard about Matsui about 10 days ago was that no-one had called Oakland's front office about him. Perhaps, he'll make it through to a contender in a waiver deal this month.
Stranger things have happened.
Over the past fortnight, Hideki Matsui has crushed American League pitching to the tune of a .511/.547/.809 triple-slash line. It's a small sample size, of course, but 24 hits in 47 at bats is impressive at any level, let alone the Major Leagues.
Honorable mention: Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, Ben Zobrist, Cliff Pennington, Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, and Billy Butler
AL Pitcher of the Fortnight
Justin Verlander, Tigers
Of the four awards handed out here today, this is the one that is most open to interpretation. Advanced stats say that other guys may have pitched better, as Verlander is ranked 13th in FIP, 9th in xFIP, and 4th in tERA and SIERA. I'm a little sad to say it, but for once it looks like Win-Loss record is making a difference. The most effective pitching performance may have been by on of the players listed in honorable mention.*
Verlander went 3-0 in 3 starts, including a match-up with Cy Young Award competitor Jered Weaver on Sunday that he thoroughly dominated, taking a no-hitter into the 8th inning, and constantly lighting up the radar gone late in the games.
*Special apologies to Ervin Santana!
Honorable mention: Ervin Santana, Justin Masterson, and CC Sabathia
NL Batter of the Fortnight
Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
 |
| There's been excitement around Justin Upton since before the draft. |
J-Upt's wOBA was over 80 points higher than the next best hitter.
NL wOBA Past 2 Weeks
Justin Upton .603
Ryan Braun .521
Troy Tulowitzki .502
Chase Utley .497
Much of Justin Upton's dominance this season may be attributed to his lower strikeout percentage.
Justin Upton K% by Season
2007: 24.3%
2008: 29.0%
2009: 23.3%
2010: 26.6%
2011: 17.6%
Because of his combination of speed and ability to make solid contact, Justin Upton has always had a very high Batting Average on Balls in Play. His BABIP this season is .333 and .342 over his entire career. So, cutting down on strikeouts will positively affect his production even more than many guys who hit lost of popups and flyballs, or aren't fast enough to beat out infield hits.
Honorable mention: Braun, Tulowitzki, Utley, Dexter Fowler, Cameron Maybin, Freddie Freeman, and Dan Uggla
NL Pitcher of the Fortnight
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
 |
| We xpect multiple Cy Young awards for Clayton Kershaw. |
If you're leading in those four defense independant pitching stats, striking out over 11 per 9ip and walking less than 2 per 9ip, you're going to win this award every time.
Honorable mention: Yovani Gallardo, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke, Ian Kennedy, and Johnny Cueto
AL Batter of the Fortnight
Hideki Matsui, Athletics
 |
| Crouching Matsui Hidden Godzilla |
Stranger things have happened.
Over the past fortnight, Hideki Matsui has crushed American League pitching to the tune of a .511/.547/.809 triple-slash line. It's a small sample size, of course, but 24 hits in 47 at bats is impressive at any level, let alone the Major Leagues.
Honorable mention: Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, Ben Zobrist, Cliff Pennington, Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, and Billy Butler
AL Pitcher of the Fortnight
Justin Verlander, Tigers
 |
| Veterans seeing Verlander on the schedule may choose to call in sick. |
Verlander went 3-0 in 3 starts, including a match-up with Cy Young Award competitor Jered Weaver on Sunday that he thoroughly dominated, taking a no-hitter into the 8th inning, and constantly lighting up the radar gone late in the games.
*Special apologies to Ervin Santana!
Honorable mention: Ervin Santana, Justin Masterson, and CC Sabathia
Corey Patterson and the Damage Done
In essence, this is a Corey Patterson post, but I'm really just throwing together a bunch of memories, emotions, and feelings, to see if it gets us anywhere. Going back to the 2nd of June 1998, Corey Patterson came to the Cubs with tremendous promise and pressure, as the #3 overall pick in baseball's June draft.
This was the second J.D. Drew Draft, after he eschewed the opportunity to play in Philadelphia, resigning himself to a 44-game stint with the St. Paul Saints*, where he rocked a .341/.443/.706 triple-slash line. Pat Burrell was drafted first, Mark Mulder second, and Drew fifth. The Indians made the best pick, selecting CC Sabathia at 20th.
All this took place during the inception of Sammy Sosa's meteoric rise to the stratosphere of American sports, fantastic pharmaceuticals, Madison Avenue inspired Pepsi commercials, and all that follows.
*speaking of Independant League baseball, I'm pretty excited for Legends Day today at the Newark Bears game. It should be a beautiful afternoon, and at the risk of setting myself up for disappointment, I think I'm sitting front row on the duguout. Sometimes it feels like Setting Myself Up for Disappointment would be good as the title of a memoir. Whatever, it should be alright. Tim Raines is their manager, for crying out loud. Plus, I should at least recognize the name of one or two legends, right?
On the morning of the '98 June draft, Sammy had a career best .344/.414/.608 line, with 72 hits (15 HR's) in 53 games. In June he took off, hitting 20 HR's during the month, setting a 'roid record that still stands. The Cubs won the Wild Card in '98, then promptly lost two road playoff games to the Braves, while I sat and watched numbly in Turner Field.
Corey Patterson was a September callup in 2000. He was not good. He also wasn't good in 2001 or 2002. He was having a much improved, almost very good 2003 before he tore a knee ligament hitting first base, ending his season with 13 HR's and 16 SB's in 83 games, as well as career highs in all three triple-slash stats: .298/.329/.511. Which looks worse, a career .291 OBP, or a career high OBP of .329?
After injury, Patterson seemed to return to form. Unfortunately it became clear that his form would take a free-swinging approach to new levels of impatience. Associates of mine and I would sit in Wrigley, within earshot of Patterson and yell at him LOUDLY to NOT swing at the first pitch. More often than not, he would see a fastball at his eyes and couldn't resist. After hearing it, heck being a part of it, approximately 300 times, the sound of 30,000 fans groaning at Corey Patterson's inevitable swing and miss has a knack for staying with you.
Corey Patterson strikes out too much. He's fast. He should make contact and run, or at least he should have a few years ago when he was presumably even faster. Frustration builds.
It's sad. We've been here before, talking about the inhumanity of being a Cubs fan. Every generation of Cub fans, from the past 100 years, has been forced to face their mortality before celebrating a Cubs championship team.
What kind of histories and legacies do Cub fans have to retell? I'm too young to tell my kids about the playing days of Banks and Santo. Ryne Sandberg never did it for me. While he seemed to have excellent range as a second baseman, I thought he failed to dive after too many groundballs out of his reach. Am I nitpicking a Hall of Fame career? Maybe, but I remember feeling that way as a 12-year old fan. Please allow me to insincerely apologize that I don't celebrate his career like many of my peers.
Maddux. Ah, Greg Maddux. I'll certainly tell my grandkids, or anyone who'll listen for that matter, about Greg Maddux. He was a magician, a maestro, professor, and class clown. I thought he looked exactly like Matthew Broderick, which certainly added to the mystique.
Finer writers than I have used their superior vocabularies to paint the the picture of this artist on the mound, but I know I have a few unique anecdotes to share. They'll have to be part of their own post.
Like most stories of the Chicago Cubs since 1908, the story of Greg Maddux ends in disappointment. If you don't know, you're probably not reading this.
Over the past twenty-five years, or so, Cub fans have enjoyed rooting for guys like Ryno, Andre Dawson, Mark Grace, Shawon Dunston, Lee Smith, that pitching rotation of 2004, Derrek Lee, Aramis, and of course, Slammin' Sammy.
Sitting here, on this hazy Sunday morning, looking back at being a Cub fan over the past quarter century, I'll have to say the most prideful and enduring moments to pass on to our next generation must include the humor and passion of Harry Caray, the artistry of Greg Maddux, and without a doubt, Kerry Wood. Flawed as his own story became, Kerry Wood may have been the brightest beacon of hope and pride for Cubs fans of recent history.
Having met Kerry Wood through a mutual friend, when we were both 19 years old, and more than two run ins with Mark Grace, I think we may have something for a pretty cool exclusive look into my views and experiences of Maddux, Grace, and Wood.
For all you youngsters out there*, Corey Patterson is the warning. He's the public service announcement. Warning: being a Cubs fan may cause an entire lifetime of heartbreak and loss.
*Trademark: Steve Stone 1986
With apologies to Neil Young and poets everywhere:
I've seen Corey Patterson and the damage done
A little part of it in everyone
But every Cubs' fan is like a settin' sun.
Corey Patterson, K%, wOBA
2000: 29.8%, .247
2001: 22.8%, .269
2002: 22.6%, .297
2003: 22.2%, .359
2004: 24.5%, .333
2005: 24.4%, .263
2006: 18.8%, .334
2007: 12.9%, .310
2008: 14.5%, .250
2009: 43.3%, .092
2010: 22.0%, .325
2011: 19.3%, .285
Be careful, young Cubs fans. Don't give up hope, but watch where you lay your faith. There's a new Corey Patterson on the horizon, and his name is Tyler Colvin.
Tyler Colvin, K%, wOBA
2009: 25.0%, .205
2010: 25.3%, .352
2011: 23.2%, .169
This isn't the best time to be a Cubs fan, but we're still here. They will get better, and we can all just do the best we can. Go Cubs. As a fan, please allow me to request that you please, pretty please, stop letting everyone down. Please don't try to pass an inferior product for multiple seasons with excuses, apologies, or talk of improvement. We would much rather see change. If not in the front office or managerial posts, then certainly on the roster. There is still time before the non-waiver trade deadline this afternoon. Please move anyone besides Castro. Please. Trade Jeff Baker, Reed Johnson, Darwin Barney, John Grabow; anyone.
Larry Rothschild shouldn't have been allowed to go to the Yankees over money.
Before I get too upset...
Fin.
This was the second J.D. Drew Draft, after he eschewed the opportunity to play in Philadelphia, resigning himself to a 44-game stint with the St. Paul Saints*, where he rocked a .341/.443/.706 triple-slash line. Pat Burrell was drafted first, Mark Mulder second, and Drew fifth. The Indians made the best pick, selecting CC Sabathia at 20th.
All this took place during the inception of Sammy Sosa's meteoric rise to the stratosphere of American sports, fantastic pharmaceuticals, Madison Avenue inspired Pepsi commercials, and all that follows.
*speaking of Independant League baseball, I'm pretty excited for Legends Day today at the Newark Bears game. It should be a beautiful afternoon, and at the risk of setting myself up for disappointment, I think I'm sitting front row on the duguout. Sometimes it feels like Setting Myself Up for Disappointment would be good as the title of a memoir. Whatever, it should be alright. Tim Raines is their manager, for crying out loud. Plus, I should at least recognize the name of one or two legends, right?
 |
| Did you do steroids? Just a little bit. |
Corey Patterson was a September callup in 2000. He was not good. He also wasn't good in 2001 or 2002. He was having a much improved, almost very good 2003 before he tore a knee ligament hitting first base, ending his season with 13 HR's and 16 SB's in 83 games, as well as career highs in all three triple-slash stats: .298/.329/.511. Which looks worse, a career .291 OBP, or a career high OBP of .329?
After injury, Patterson seemed to return to form. Unfortunately it became clear that his form would take a free-swinging approach to new levels of impatience. Associates of mine and I would sit in Wrigley, within earshot of Patterson and yell at him LOUDLY to NOT swing at the first pitch. More often than not, he would see a fastball at his eyes and couldn't resist. After hearing it, heck being a part of it, approximately 300 times, the sound of 30,000 fans groaning at Corey Patterson's inevitable swing and miss has a knack for staying with you.
 |
| That breeze you feel is not coming off Lake Michigan. |
It's sad. We've been here before, talking about the inhumanity of being a Cubs fan. Every generation of Cub fans, from the past 100 years, has been forced to face their mortality before celebrating a Cubs championship team.
What kind of histories and legacies do Cub fans have to retell? I'm too young to tell my kids about the playing days of Banks and Santo. Ryne Sandberg never did it for me. While he seemed to have excellent range as a second baseman, I thought he failed to dive after too many groundballs out of his reach. Am I nitpicking a Hall of Fame career? Maybe, but I remember feeling that way as a 12-year old fan. Please allow me to insincerely apologize that I don't celebrate his career like many of my peers.
Finer writers than I have used their superior vocabularies to paint the the picture of this artist on the mound, but I know I have a few unique anecdotes to share. They'll have to be part of their own post.
Like most stories of the Chicago Cubs since 1908, the story of Greg Maddux ends in disappointment. If you don't know, you're probably not reading this.
Over the past twenty-five years, or so, Cub fans have enjoyed rooting for guys like Ryno, Andre Dawson, Mark Grace, Shawon Dunston, Lee Smith, that pitching rotation of 2004, Derrek Lee, Aramis, and of course, Slammin' Sammy.
Having met Kerry Wood through a mutual friend, when we were both 19 years old, and more than two run ins with Mark Grace, I think we may have something for a pretty cool exclusive look into my views and experiences of Maddux, Grace, and Wood.
For all you youngsters out there*, Corey Patterson is the warning. He's the public service announcement. Warning: being a Cubs fan may cause an entire lifetime of heartbreak and loss.
*Trademark: Steve Stone 1986
With apologies to Neil Young and poets everywhere:
I've seen Corey Patterson and the damage done
A little part of it in everyone
But every Cubs' fan is like a settin' sun.
Corey Patterson, K%, wOBA
2000: 29.8%, .247
2001: 22.8%, .269
2002: 22.6%, .297
2003: 22.2%, .359
2004: 24.5%, .333
2005: 24.4%, .263
2006: 18.8%, .334
2007: 12.9%, .310
2008: 14.5%, .250
2009: 43.3%, .092
2010: 22.0%, .325
2011: 19.3%, .285
 |
| Colvin needs a lesson in patience. |
Tyler Colvin, K%, wOBA
2009: 25.0%, .205
2010: 25.3%, .352
2011: 23.2%, .169
 |
| Images like this are upsetting. |
Larry Rothschild shouldn't have been allowed to go to the Yankees over money.
Before I get too upset...
Fin.
Change of Pace Update
About 12 weeks ago, the day after the Wedding of the Year, we did this study to see which pitchers have the largest difference in average velocity between their fastball and change-up. Today, we are increasing the Minimum Innings Pitched requirement to 80 ip, giving us a sample of 130 pitchers.
Please save your questions 'till the end, enjoy:
American League
Erik Bedard, Mariners 91 - 78 = 12.8
David Price, Rays 95 - 82 = 12.7
Clay Buchholz, Red Sox 93 - 80 = 12.3
Max Scherzer, Tigers 93 - 82 = 11.1
Luke Hochevar, Royals 93 - 82 = 10.9
Jered Weaver, Angels 90 - 79 = 10.7
Jeremy Hellickson, Rays 91 - 80 = 10.6
Phil Coke, Tigers 91 - 81 = 10.1
Rick Porcello, Tigers 90 - 80 = 9.9
Matt Harrison, Rangers 93 - 83 = 9.7
National League
Travis Wood, Reds 90 - 78 = 11.8
Josh Collmenter, Diamondbacks 87 - 76 = 11.6
James McDonald, Pirates 93 - 81 = 11.2
Jake Westbrook, Cardinals 90 - 79 = 10.7
Edinson Volquez, Reds 94 - 84 = 10.3
Mat Latos, Padres 93 - 82 = 10.1
Tim Stauffer, Padres 90 - 80 = 10.0
Johnny Cueto, Reds 93 - 83 = 9.9
Javy Vazquez, Marlins 90 - 80 = 9.8
Kyle Lohse, Cardinals 89 - 79 = 9.8
Once again, this study shows a few intriguing names. Erik Bedard leads the way, emphatically exhibiting one reason he's being looked at so intently by contending teams at this trade deadline. David Price continues to impress in various ways. Max Sherzer has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this year. Luke Hochevar is a surprise, but seems to be rounding out to form a little, especially after last night's win in Boston. Jered Weaver seems to be on every AL pitching leader board, as Jeremy Hellickson will one day.
In the NL, we find three Reds, two Cardinals, and two Padres taking up 7 of the top 10 spots. Josh Collmenter, meanwhile, has a Top 5 changeup in the senior circuit.
NL Best wCH/C (min 80 ip)
Kyle McClellan, Cardinals 4.28
Cole Hamels, Phillies 3.77
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers 3.09
Kyle Lohse, Cardinals 2.87
Josh Collmenter, Diamondbacks 2.72
Note: All stats from Fangraphs, and each player must throw their fastball and changeup more than 7% each.
Please save your questions 'till the end, enjoy:
American League
Erik Bedard, Mariners 91 - 78 = 12.8
David Price, Rays 95 - 82 = 12.7
Clay Buchholz, Red Sox 93 - 80 = 12.3
Max Scherzer, Tigers 93 - 82 = 11.1
Luke Hochevar, Royals 93 - 82 = 10.9
Jered Weaver, Angels 90 - 79 = 10.7
Jeremy Hellickson, Rays 91 - 80 = 10.6
Phil Coke, Tigers 91 - 81 = 10.1
Rick Porcello, Tigers 90 - 80 = 9.9
Matt Harrison, Rangers 93 - 83 = 9.7
 |
| Erik Bedard is the one being dangled in his start for the Mariners tonight. |
National League
Travis Wood, Reds 90 - 78 = 11.8
Josh Collmenter, Diamondbacks 87 - 76 = 11.6
James McDonald, Pirates 93 - 81 = 11.2
Jake Westbrook, Cardinals 90 - 79 = 10.7
Edinson Volquez, Reds 94 - 84 = 10.3
 |
| Travis Wood has been atop this category all season |
Tim Stauffer, Padres 90 - 80 = 10.0
Johnny Cueto, Reds 93 - 83 = 9.9
Javy Vazquez, Marlins 90 - 80 = 9.8
Kyle Lohse, Cardinals 89 - 79 = 9.8
Once again, this study shows a few intriguing names. Erik Bedard leads the way, emphatically exhibiting one reason he's being looked at so intently by contending teams at this trade deadline. David Price continues to impress in various ways. Max Sherzer has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this year. Luke Hochevar is a surprise, but seems to be rounding out to form a little, especially after last night's win in Boston. Jered Weaver seems to be on every AL pitching leader board, as Jeremy Hellickson will one day.
In the NL, we find three Reds, two Cardinals, and two Padres taking up 7 of the top 10 spots. Josh Collmenter, meanwhile, has a Top 5 changeup in the senior circuit.
NL Best wCH/C (min 80 ip)
Kyle McClellan, Cardinals 4.28
Cole Hamels, Phillies 3.77
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers 3.09
Kyle Lohse, Cardinals 2.87
Josh Collmenter, Diamondbacks 2.72
Note: All stats from Fangraphs, and each player must throw their fastball and changeup more than 7% each.
MLB Pitchers with Best Stuff
We did this a few months ago, when there was such a small sample size, it was almost a waste of time. Tonight, we'll be looking at the Fangraphs Pitch Value Leaderboards to determine who has the best stuff. No hyperbole nor nonsensical jargon, let's dive right in.
This is compiled from 2011 statistics for all pitchers in with a minimum of 100 innings pitched in the Major Leagues this season.
Total Weighted Value of All Pitches
Justin Verlander, 44.7
Jered Weaver, 42.6
Josh Beckett, 38.4
Clayton Kershaw, 36.4
Cole Hamels, 34.4
CC Sabathia, 31.8
Roy Halladay, 30.4
James Shields, 28.6
Cliff Lee, 24.8
Dan Haren, 23.0
Best Single Pitch
Dan Haren, 26.4 wCT
Justin Verlander, 24.1 wFB
Jered Weaver, 24.1 wFB
Clayton Kershaw, 20.6 wSL
C.J. Wilson, 19.8 wFB
Ian Kennedy, 19.7 wFB
Cliff Lee, 19.6 wFB
Felix Hernandez, 19.0 wCH
Bud Norris, 18.7 wSL
James Shields, 18.6 wCH
Best Two (2) Pitch wAVG
Justin Verlander, 18.4 FB/CB
Jered Weaver, 17.85 FB/CH
Clayton Kershaw, 15.95 SL/FB
Dan Haren, 14.05 CT/CB
James Shields, 13.65 FB/CB
C.J. Wilson, 13.5 FB/CT
CC Sabathia, 13.45 FB/SL
Josh Beckett, 13.35 FB/CT
Cole Hamels, 12.9 CH/FB
Cliff Lee, 12.45 FB/CB
Best Three (3) Pitch wAVG
Justin Verlander, 14.07 FB/CB/CH
Jered Weaver, 13.93 FB/CH/SL
Clayton Kershaw, 11.67 SL/FB/CH
Josh Beckett, 11.33 FB/CT/CH
Cole Hamels, 11.23 CH/FB/CT
CC Sabathia, 10.87 FB/SL/CH
Roy Halladay, 10.6 CT/CB/CH
C.J. Wilson, 10.27 FB/CT/SL
James Shields, 9.43 CH/CB/CT
Dan Haren, 8.87 CT/CB/SF
Best Four (4) Pitch wAVG
Jered Weaver, 10.65 FB/CH/SL/CB
Justin Verlander, 10.45 FB/CB/CH/SL
Josh Beckett, 9.6 FB/CT/CH/CB
Clayton Kershaw, 9.1 SL/FB/CH/CB
Cole Hamels, 8.6 CH/FB/CT/CB
CC Sabathia, 7.95 FB/SL/CH/CB
Roy Halladay, 7.6 CT/CB/CH/FB
James Shields, 7.15 CH/CB/CT/FB
C.J. Wilson, 7.03 FB/CT/SL/CB
Cliff Lee, 6.3 FB/CB/CH/SL
Best Five (5) Pitch wAVG
Cliff Lee, 4.96 FB/CB/CH/SL/CT
C.J. Wilson, 4.52 FB/CT/SL/CB/CH
Tim Hudson, 4.24 FB/SL/CB/SF/CT
Shaun Marcum, 3.52 CH/CB/CT/FB/SL
Ian Kennedy, 3.34 FB/CT/SL/CB/CH
Ricky Romero, 2.78 CH/FB/CB/SL/CT
Dillon Gee, 2.74 FB/CH/CT/CB/SL
Tim Stauffer, 2.58 FB/CH/CT/SL/CB
Mark Buehrle, 1.98 CT/CB/CH/SL/FB
Josh Tomlin, 1.8 CT/CB/FB/SL/CH
Wow, Dillon Gee and Josh Tomlin, I guess not many guys throw five pitches these days, at least not without one being a large liability. Any questions? Comments? Thanks!
This is compiled from 2011 statistics for all pitchers in with a minimum of 100 innings pitched in the Major Leagues this season.
Total Weighted Value of All Pitches
Justin Verlander, 44.7
Jered Weaver, 42.6
 |
| Leyland loves Verlander's stuff. |
Clayton Kershaw, 36.4
Cole Hamels, 34.4
CC Sabathia, 31.8
Roy Halladay, 30.4
James Shields, 28.6
Cliff Lee, 24.8
Dan Haren, 23.0
Best Single Pitch
Dan Haren, 26.4 wCT
Justin Verlander, 24.1 wFB
Jered Weaver, 24.1 wFB
Clayton Kershaw, 20.6 wSL
C.J. Wilson, 19.8 wFB
Ian Kennedy, 19.7 wFB
Cliff Lee, 19.6 wFB
Felix Hernandez, 19.0 wCH
Bud Norris, 18.7 wSL
James Shields, 18.6 wCH
Best Two (2) Pitch wAVG
Justin Verlander, 18.4 FB/CB
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| Jered Weaver has been amazing. |
Clayton Kershaw, 15.95 SL/FB
Dan Haren, 14.05 CT/CB
James Shields, 13.65 FB/CB
C.J. Wilson, 13.5 FB/CT
CC Sabathia, 13.45 FB/SL
Josh Beckett, 13.35 FB/CT
Cole Hamels, 12.9 CH/FB
Cliff Lee, 12.45 FB/CB
Best Three (3) Pitch wAVG
Justin Verlander, 14.07 FB/CB/CH
Jered Weaver, 13.93 FB/CH/SL
Clayton Kershaw, 11.67 SL/FB/CH
Josh Beckett, 11.33 FB/CT/CH
Cole Hamels, 11.23 CH/FB/CT
CC Sabathia, 10.87 FB/SL/CH
Roy Halladay, 10.6 CT/CB/CH
C.J. Wilson, 10.27 FB/CT/SL
James Shields, 9.43 CH/CB/CT
Dan Haren, 8.87 CT/CB/SF
Best Four (4) Pitch wAVG
Jered Weaver, 10.65 FB/CH/SL/CB
Justin Verlander, 10.45 FB/CB/CH/SL
Josh Beckett, 9.6 FB/CT/CH/CB
Clayton Kershaw, 9.1 SL/FB/CH/CB
Cole Hamels, 8.6 CH/FB/CT/CB
CC Sabathia, 7.95 FB/SL/CH/CB
Roy Halladay, 7.6 CT/CB/CH/FB
James Shields, 7.15 CH/CB/CT/FB
C.J. Wilson, 7.03 FB/CT/SL/CB
Cliff Lee, 6.3 FB/CB/CH/SL
Best Five (5) Pitch wAVG
Cliff Lee, 4.96 FB/CB/CH/SL/CT
C.J. Wilson, 4.52 FB/CT/SL/CB/CH
Tim Hudson, 4.24 FB/SL/CB/SF/CT
Shaun Marcum, 3.52 CH/CB/CT/FB/SL
Ian Kennedy, 3.34 FB/CT/SL/CB/CH
Ricky Romero, 2.78 CH/FB/CB/SL/CT
Dillon Gee, 2.74 FB/CH/CT/CB/SL
Tim Stauffer, 2.58 FB/CH/CT/SL/CB
Mark Buehrle, 1.98 CT/CB/CH/SL/FB
Josh Tomlin, 1.8 CT/CB/FB/SL/CH
Wow, Dillon Gee and Josh Tomlin, I guess not many guys throw five pitches these days, at least not without one being a large liability. Any questions? Comments? Thanks!
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| This is Dillon Gee's first appearance here. Hi! |
Looking Back at Opponents' OPS Leaders
Expanding on our last post, looking at pitchers’ Opponents' OPS, here is a historical look at Oops leaders of this millennium. In our constant quest to find the best pitching in baseball, this time, only pitchers qualified for the ERA title are included.
Opponents OPS Leaders
2011
AL: Josh Beckett, Red Sox .516
NL: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers .560
It'll be interesting to see who finishes the season on top. A pitcher's home ballpark affects his statistics tremendously, especially Slugging Percentage.
Josh Beckett's .516 OPS allowed is even more impressive when keeping that in mind. In fact, as we'll see with the following, the lowest OPS allowed in the last 10 years was Roger Clemens in 2004.
2010
AL: Felix Hernandez, Mariners .585
NL: Mat Latos, Padres .601
With pitching injuries the way they've been recently, it seems like young flame throwers have two chances at success. In their early 20's, they can blow everyone away and have a few good years before they get injured. Then, they can bounce back from injury and succeed as renaissance pitchers. Very few guys are going the route of staying relatively healthy for 15 years and retiring. Latos is already fighting through shoulder issues. If Felix keeps it going, he still may one day end up like Jason Schmidt or Johan Santana in his mid 30's.
2009
AL: Felix Hernandez, Mariners .605
NL: Tim Lincecum, Giants .561
With all due respect to those other cats in Philadelphia, I think Doc Halladay, Justin Verlander and these two guys are the best in the business.
2008
AL: Roy Halladay, Blue Jays .621
NL: Tim Lincecum, Giants .612
Halladay is pretty much a walking, talking Hall of Famer. He's over 60 WAR for his career, and his postseason success last season was tailor made for Cooperstown.
Lincecum, while extremely young, doesn't need to get any better. He simply needs to keep doing what he's doing to get his own plaque.
2007
AL: Erik Bedard, Mariners .615
NL: Chris Young, Padres .578
Both of these guys have really struggled with injuries after their career years in 2007. Bedard has a better chance at getting near his past levels of success, being left-handed and throwing with much more velocity. Chris Young excels with his control and change of speeds, but he suffers when throwing not much more than a batting practice fastball. His average fastball has been 84.7 mph the past 2 seasons, while Bedard sits 90-91 with his 4-seamer and cutter, mixing in a 77-78 hammer and change-up.
2006
AL: Johan Santana, Twins .618
NL: Chris Carpenter, Cardinals .643
Many GM's were afraid of injury whispers around Johan Santana during his last year, or so, with the Twins. The Mets didn't shy away, and while they still got some very good mileage of of him, he's currently paying the toll for the pitches he thrown the last seven seasons.
2005
AL: Johan Santana, Twins .596
NL: Roger Clemens, Astros .544
Roger Clemens is a cheater and a liar. He's a horrible example for the youth of Texas and an embarrassment to the National pastime. It's good knowing that he's never going to play again.
2004
AL: Johan Santana, Twins .565
NL: Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks .557
Randy Johnson will probably have one of the ugliest plaques in Cooperstown. If not, Reggie Jackson should sue the museum curators because his looks ridiculous, and he's not nearly that ugly. It would be nice to see him in as an Expo or Mariner, but something tells me he could be the first ever Diamondback representative.
2003
AL: Pedro Martinez, Red Sox .586
NL: Jason Schmidt, Giants .566
Pedro is making history, with his epic success year after year. In 2003, Jason Schmidt lead the National League in Winning Percentage, ERA, and ERA+, but he finished 2nd in the Cy Young Award race to 'roided up Eric Gagne.
2002
AL: Pedro Martinez, Red Sox .562
NL: Odalis Perez, Dodgers .609
The most surprising leader in this examination is Odalis Amadol Perez. What an enigmatic career he had.
2002 was the only year he made the All-Star team, and 2004 was the only other season he had an above average ERA+. Odalis injured his arm, along the way, and was never the same, retiring after his Age 30 season in 2008.
2001
AL: Freddy Garcia, Mariners .627
NL: Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks .583
Freddy Garcia was a fan favorite in Seattle. This gave us a statistical reason why. 2001, of course, was also the year Big Unit and Curt Schilling won a World Series in front of their home fans, arguably consisting of thousands of former Cub fan transplants.
2000
AL: Pedro Martinez, Red Sox .473
NL: Kevin Brown, Dodgers .598
Pedro Martinez's 2000 season is arguably the most dominant pitching performance of any season in any era. The numbers speak for themselves, plus remember he's in an extreme hitters' park most of the time, and pitching at the peak of the Steroid Era. Just as Maddux's numbers shine incredibly brightly, they are blinding when viewed through Selig's steroid prism. Joe Posnanski's post that got this whole conversation started listed Pedro's 2000 season as the best season ever by any 28-year old. With the spirit of the Hall of Fame in the air, on this Induction Day, I'm anticipating Pedro's approaching Cooperstown celebration.
Opponents OPS Leaders
2011
AL: Josh Beckett, Red Sox .516
NL: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers .560
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| In 2011, Josh Beckett has been historically good. Again. |
Josh Beckett's .516 OPS allowed is even more impressive when keeping that in mind. In fact, as we'll see with the following, the lowest OPS allowed in the last 10 years was Roger Clemens in 2004.
2010
AL: Felix Hernandez, Mariners .585
NL: Mat Latos, Padres .601
With pitching injuries the way they've been recently, it seems like young flame throwers have two chances at success. In their early 20's, they can blow everyone away and have a few good years before they get injured. Then, they can bounce back from injury and succeed as renaissance pitchers. Very few guys are going the route of staying relatively healthy for 15 years and retiring. Latos is already fighting through shoulder issues. If Felix keeps it going, he still may one day end up like Jason Schmidt or Johan Santana in his mid 30's.
2009
AL: Felix Hernandez, Mariners .605
NL: Tim Lincecum, Giants .561
With all due respect to those other cats in Philadelphia, I think Doc Halladay, Justin Verlander and these two guys are the best in the business.
2008
AL: Roy Halladay, Blue Jays .621
NL: Tim Lincecum, Giants .612
 |
| Fans appreciate Halladay |
Lincecum, while extremely young, doesn't need to get any better. He simply needs to keep doing what he's doing to get his own plaque.
2007
AL: Erik Bedard, Mariners .615
NL: Chris Young, Padres .578
Both of these guys have really struggled with injuries after their career years in 2007. Bedard has a better chance at getting near his past levels of success, being left-handed and throwing with much more velocity. Chris Young excels with his control and change of speeds, but he suffers when throwing not much more than a batting practice fastball. His average fastball has been 84.7 mph the past 2 seasons, while Bedard sits 90-91 with his 4-seamer and cutter, mixing in a 77-78 hammer and change-up.
2006
AL: Johan Santana, Twins .618
NL: Chris Carpenter, Cardinals .643
 |
| How much more must Johan Santana achieve to get to the H.o.F? |
2005
AL: Johan Santana, Twins .596
NL: Roger Clemens, Astros .544
Roger Clemens is a cheater and a liar. He's a horrible example for the youth of Texas and an embarrassment to the National pastime. It's good knowing that he's never going to play again.
2004
AL: Johan Santana, Twins .565
NL: Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks .557
2003
AL: Pedro Martinez, Red Sox .586
NL: Jason Schmidt, Giants .566
Pedro is making history, with his epic success year after year. In 2003, Jason Schmidt lead the National League in Winning Percentage, ERA, and ERA+, but he finished 2nd in the Cy Young Award race to 'roided up Eric Gagne.
2002
AL: Pedro Martinez, Red Sox .562
NL: Odalis Perez, Dodgers .609
 |
| Where have you gone, Odalis Perez? |
2002 was the only year he made the All-Star team, and 2004 was the only other season he had an above average ERA+. Odalis injured his arm, along the way, and was never the same, retiring after his Age 30 season in 2008.
2001
AL: Freddy Garcia, Mariners .627
NL: Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks .583
Freddy Garcia was a fan favorite in Seattle. This gave us a statistical reason why. 2001, of course, was also the year Big Unit and Curt Schilling won a World Series in front of their home fans, arguably consisting of thousands of former Cub fan transplants.
2000
AL: Pedro Martinez, Red Sox .473
NL: Kevin Brown, Dodgers .598
MLB Opponent OPS Leaders
Joe Posnanski published an inspired blog post on Friday. If you're into looking at baseball from different point of views, or just wonderful writing, check it out.
In his usual enlightening and entertaining prose, Joe writes a few mini-posts inspired by reader feedback.
In essence, a reader comment of a column inspired by reader comments inspired this post. 'Brilliant Reader' Mark N writes:
*Heck, I hope Joe includes anecdotes for each decade since the liveball era.
I like this idea of looking at Opponents' OPS allowed (OOPS, for short); it relates to some of our other posts this year looking at under-discussed statistics. OPS is a good stat, but it's not great. In fact, I'm afraid OPS is a brutally flawed statistic. It stands for on-base percentage plus slugging. Not to geek out too much, but OBP counts Plate Appearances and SLG counts At Bats. Mathematically speaking, I don't think you're supposed to combine numbers with uncommon denominators.
Still, this should be enlightening and relatively not pointless. At least OPS is a more considerate statistic than just Batting Average.
First, let me say, this is the first time that I didn't find what I needed on Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference, but found it on ESPN. Incredible. I don't think ESPN does multiple years, so we'll just look at MLB leaders for this season, minimum 60 innings pitched.
Opponents OPS
1. Jonny Venters .455
2. Cory Luebke .504
3. Josh Beckett .508
4. Josh Johnson .509
5. Jered Weaver .531
6. Justin Verlander .532
7. Josh Collmenter .554
8. Johnny Cueto .556
9. Clayton Kershaw .560
10. Cole Hamels .563
11. Alexi Ogando .586
12. Michael Pineda .596
13. CC Sabathia .597
14. Roy Halladay .599
15. Vance Worley .600
16. Carlos Villanueva .606
17. Matt Cain .609
18. Philip Humber .610
19. James Shields .611
20. Tim Hudson .613
In his usual enlightening and entertaining prose, Joe writes a few mini-posts inspired by reader feedback.
In essence, a reader comment of a column inspired by reader comments inspired this post. 'Brilliant Reader' Mark N writes:
"Why isn't Opposing OPS for pitchers more widespread? For starters, it has--EASILY--the greatest acronym in all of sports."Mark N probably hopes Joe responds with an imaginative and deep column*, but he'll have to settle for this effort in the meantime. At the very least, Mark N, somebody is listening.
*Heck, I hope Joe includes anecdotes for each decade since the liveball era.
I like this idea of looking at Opponents' OPS allowed (OOPS, for short); it relates to some of our other posts this year looking at under-discussed statistics. OPS is a good stat, but it's not great. In fact, I'm afraid OPS is a brutally flawed statistic. It stands for on-base percentage plus slugging. Not to geek out too much, but OBP counts Plate Appearances and SLG counts At Bats. Mathematically speaking, I don't think you're supposed to combine numbers with uncommon denominators.
Still, this should be enlightening and relatively not pointless. At least OPS is a more considerate statistic than just Batting Average.
First, let me say, this is the first time that I didn't find what I needed on Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference, but found it on ESPN. Incredible. I don't think ESPN does multiple years, so we'll just look at MLB leaders for this season, minimum 60 innings pitched.
Opponents OPS
1. Jonny Venters .455
2. Cory Luebke .504
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| We're pretty excited that we got on Luebke's bandwagon at the end of Spring Training. |
4. Josh Johnson .509
5. Jered Weaver .531
6. Justin Verlander .532
7. Josh Collmenter .554
8. Johnny Cueto .556
9. Clayton Kershaw .560
10. Cole Hamels .563
11. Alexi Ogando .586
12. Michael Pineda .596
13. CC Sabathia .597
14. Roy Halladay .599
15. Vance Worley .600
16. Carlos Villanueva .606
17. Matt Cain .609
18. Philip Humber .610
19. James Shields .611
20. Tim Hudson .613
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