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2011 National League MVP Race

So far this season, I haven't read an article discussing NL MVP candidates, but I've heard chatter for Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Troy Tulowitzki, Reyes, McCutchen, defending winner Votto, and... I guess that's about it. Maybe there was a Michael Morse mention here or there also.

As a different perspective of this usually trivial question, let's look at MVP candidates by team before checking any league stat boards.


NL East
Phillies: Roy Halladay
Braves: Brian McCann
Nationals: Jordan Zimmermann
NY Mets: Jose Reyes
2011 National League MVP Race
Doc keeps building Hall of Fame cred
Marlins: Mike Stanton

Shane Victorino has a case as the MVP of the Phillies, while Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels deserve Honorable Mention. Halladay is clearly the best pitcher on that amazing staff, worthy of all the praise that is sent their way.

The Braves have a well balanced attack. To demonstrate, they have five separate players (McCann, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurgens, Craig Kimbrell, and Johnny Venters) with at least 2.9 avWAR. That leaves some very good players on the Braves who have not had very good seasons, but could be dangerous in October. We're talking about players like Chipper Jones, Jason Heyward, Dan Uggla, Freddie Freeman, Michael Bourn, Martin Prado, and hero of past autumns: Derek Lowe.

Ryan Zimmerman would be the Nationals MVP if he hadn't missed so much time due to injury.

At the bottom of the division, Reyes and Santon clearly outshine their teammates.

NL Central
2011 National League MVP Race
The Brewers have lots
of Pitching & Power.
Brewers: Ryan Braun
Cardinals: Matt Holliday
Reds: Joey Votto
Pirates: Andrew McCutchen
Cubs: Aramis Ramirez
Astros: Clint Barmes (?!)

The Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds show tremendous balance, with numerous players playing well, but the Brewers' pitching is the reason they are in the driver's seat. Oh yeah, and Ryan Braun, too. Ryan Braun is undoubtedly one of the brightest shining stars in professional baseball.

Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols are two of the best free agents, who weren't the Most Valuable Players on their own teams, of all time. Lance Berkman also deserves an honorable mention in St. Louis. Big Puma is a very good choice for NL Comeback Player of the Year.

A quick look at Win Probability Added in St. Louis:

2011 Cardinals WPA Leaders
1. Lance Berkman, RF 3.58
2. Matt Holiday, LF 3.31
3. Albert Pujols, 1b 3.07
4. Daniel Descalso, IF 1.31
5. Fernando Salas, RP 1.29
6. Lance Lynn, P 1.11
7. Allen Craig, OF 1.09
8. Chris Carpenter, SP 0.86
9. David Freese, 3b 0.72
10. Eduardo Sanchez, RP 0.67

Johnny Cueto has been a force in Cincinnati's rotation. It's a shame for the Reds that the rest of their pitching didn't pan out enough for them to be in better standing.

2011 National League MVP Race
Don't be shocked if you see this
face on your box of Wheaties.
In Pittsburgh, Andrew McCutchen is a burgeoning star. He will be in MVP discussions for future seasons.

As a frame of reference for the WPA blurb above, McCutchen's fWAR is a robust 5.5, and his WPA is 1.85.

The Cubs are terrible and simple to figure. Their best player this season was 33-year old Aramis Ramirez. Their most valuable "keeper" is 21-year old Starlin Castro. Jim Hendry's parting gift to Cubs fans, Matt Garza, didn't lead the team to contention but has thrown well. On point, earlier today, I saw a nifty stat in a Ben Badler tweet:
"Matt Garza has one more strikeout than he did last season despite facing 229 fewer batters"
The doormats of the National League this year, not surprisingly are the youthfully exuberant and transitioning Houston Astros. How bad is it for them that they can hardly even field a contestant for the discussion of MVP. Their most productive players, namely Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, have been traded. Even their slightly above average players, like Jeff Keppinger, were shipped out by ought-a-be lame duck GM, Ed Wade. Alright, alright, you twisted my arm enough. Let's have some WPA fun with the last-placed Astros. Former Astros, as described above, will be shown with strikethrough.

2011 Astros WPA Leaders
1. Hunter Pence, RF 2.62
2. Michael Bourn, CF 1.58
3. Wandy Rodriguez, SP 0.98
4. Matt Downs, IF 0.72
5. Fernando Rodriguez, RP 0.59
6. Brian Bogusevic, OF 0.56
7. J.D. Martinez, LF 0.26
8. Jimmy Paredes, 3b 0.21
9. Brett Wallace, 1b 0.20
10. Jose Valdez, RP 0.18

NL West
Diamondbacks: Justin Upton
Giants: Tim Lincecum
Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki
Dodgers: Matt Kemp
Padres: Cameron Maybin

Tulo, Upton, and Kemp will spend the next month fighting it out in this division, and perhaps for the entire league, as these seem like the top 3 hitting candidates.

Matt Cain and Big Panda Pablo Sandoval get honorable mention out of the Bay Area.

Carlos Gonzalez has basically turned into Denver's baseball version of Scottie Pippen... in a good way. Meanwhile, their talented General Manager, Dan O'Dowd, could be looked at as the most valuable member of the Rockies organization. I think people will be talking about the masterful job he did this season, trading Ubaldo Jimenez for Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, and two other lottery tickets.

2011 National League MVP Race
Maybin brings energy and
skill to all facets of the game.
Cameron Maybin has been a revelation in San Diego, and it's great to see. Here was a very young player who failed to live up to lofty expectations in Detroit and Florida. It's great for the game that he has figured things out because he is a dynamic talent.

It could be fascinating to see what happens with starting pitchers like Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander vying for MVP in both leagues. Clayton Kershaw has an argument for the NL Cy Young award, as well, but the average between Wins Above Replacement (WAR) on Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs show Halladay as the more productive starting pitcher.

2011 NL avWAR Leaders
1. Matt Kemp, Dodgers 6.8
2. Roy Halladay, Phillies 6.4
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers 6.1
4. Joey Votto, Reds 5.7
Shane Victorino, Phillies 5.7
6. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies 5.6
7. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers 5.5
8. Cliff Lee, Phillies 5.2
9. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates 5.1
10. Cole Hamels, Phillies 5.0
11. Matt Holliday, Cardinals 4.9
Justin Upton, Diamondbacks 4.9
13. Jose Reyes, Mets 4.8
14. Tim Lincecum, Giants 4.3
Mike Stanton, Marlins 4.3
16. Prince Fielder, Brewers 4.2
17. Matt Cain, Giants 4.1
Albert Pujols, Cardinals 4.1
19. Pablo Sandoval, Giants 4.0
20. Lance Berkman, Cardinals 3.9

Just a few more quick ones:

2011 NL SIERA Leaders
Roy Halladay, Phillies 2.52
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers 2.67
Cliff Lee, Phillies 2.68
Cole Hamels, Phillies 2.86
Anibal Sanchez, Marlins 3.06

2011 NL WPA Leaders (Pitchers)
Cole Hamels, Phillies 4.03
Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks 3.88
Roy Halladay, Phillies 3.46
Cliff Lee, Phillies 3.22
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers 2.96

I'd feel pretty good as a Phillies fan right now.

2011 NL WPA Leaders (Hitters)
Joey Votto, Reds 6.33
Prince Fielder, Brewers 5.61
Matt Kemp, Dodgers 4.18
Ryan Braun, Brewers 4.06
Lance Berkman, Cardinals 3.58

2011 NL wOBA Leaders
1. Ryan Braun, Brewers .432
2. Joey Votto, Reds .419
3. Matt Kemp, Dodgers .414
4. Shane Victorino, Phillies .411
5. Lance Berkman, Cardinals .409
6. Matt Holliday, Cardinals .409
7. Prince Fielder, Brewers .404
8. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks .395
9. Michael Morse, Nationals .393
10. Jose Reyes, Mets .389
11. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies .388
12. Albert Pujols, Cardinals .383
13. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs .379
Todd Helton, Rockies .379
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies .379
16. Mike Stanton, Marlins .378
17. Carlos Beltran, Giants .377
18. Hunter Pence, Phillies .371
19. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates .370
20. Brian McCann, Braves .369

There is no clear cut favorite, but some things can be sorted out. It'll take another strong month from one of these follows to wrap up the award. With about four and half weeks left, I'd say the favorites are Kemp, Braun, and Doc Halladay, with Votto, Upton, and Tulowitzki still within striking distance.

The Cubs Opportunity

In the aftermath of Jim Hendry's dismissal, it's clear the Cubs are looking for a big name that is respected, from a winning background, and able to instill what he has learned into Cubs culture. Quite a few candidates qualify for the first two requirements on that list, while the third is the most vital and difficult to ascertain. The names of rumored candidates begin as a who's who among GM's of the past decade: Gillick, Cashman, Epstein, Friedman, and so on.

I write this post on the Staten Island Ferry, en route to a Single-A Staten Island Yankees game on the evening of August 23rd.

The Cubs Opportunity
The Soriano contract may have
been the last straw for Cashman.
Living in New York regularly exposes me to the voices of Yankee fans and pundits, and the gist of what I've been hearing is: "There's NO WAY Cashman would leave the Bronx to try and fix the Cubs' history of dysfunction over multiple generations."

We hear the same about Theo Epstein in New England. "Why would Theo leave a spot where he is beloved by millions?" And "He already won the power struggle over Boston when he left in the gorilla suit. He ain't goin' ANY-insert-Boston-accent-WHERE!"

We've been hearing about Brian Cashman leaving the Steinbrenners since Big George was talking with his Tampa advisers behind his back. It's been over a decade since speculators predicted he would "burnout" in New York. All told, Cashman has silenced his critics. He's done an outstanding job for many, many years in one of the toughest environments to display longevity. I'm not saying that Cashman is headed out of town, but he certainly could be for the Cubs job.

Buster Olney expressed the value of the Cubs' jobin a tweet yesterday:
"Cubs will be able to get a big name for GM job, if that's their choice. Casual fans see flaws in job; execs view it as a really attractive."
Any leader of the next Cubs' World Series Champion would reach a God-like status akin to Ditka.

The Cubs Opportunity
The has a home in Boston.
Is it enough to keep him there?
With Theo, my feelings tend to be even more ambitious. His standing across Red Sox Nation as Saint Theo, or whatever they call him, shouldn't prevent him from exploring possibilities in Wrigleyville. Yes, it's true that Boston is his home town. They are a great organization that provides stability and assets to win year after year. (Some would argue that, in fact, it is Epstein that provides such stability and perennial competitiveness.)

In another tweet, Olney prognosticates:
"It will be very interesting to see if the Cubs ask for permission to talk to Red Sox GM Theo Epstein;they could offer him a team presidency."
Forgetting titles, amount of control, and all that stuff, I see this opportunity as better than "once in a lifetime". We're talking once ever. Legendary Cubs announcer, Jack Brickhouse said, "Anyone can have a bad century," but that was in jest. If it were to happen again, it would probably be caused by a handful of superpowers routinely winning the title while a gaggle of noncontenders suffer through decades of losing together. I'm not an astronomer, but it seems like no other team will ever carry on a 100-year old drought in solitude.

If the Cubs ask the Red Sox for permission to speak with Theo Epstein, and Theo listens, why would he not be intrigued? This is a chance to be adored by two ravenous fan bases that reside all over the world. No matter what happens from here on out, save employment from the Yankees, Theo Epstein will never have to buy lunch or a drink in Boston for the rest of his life.

If he also ended the World Series with the Cubs, he could open up Epstein's Steakhouse on Rush Street, attracting the usual divorcees and womanizers who drink martinis and smoke cigars. That's great and all, but it's small potatoes. Epstein already lives in the Ditka spotlight throughout New England. He's their patron son. The local boy who did good. He doesn't need to change his life for the better, to be adored in Chicago. A man only needs so much adoration before the redundancies outweigh the gratification. Where Theo Epstein's opportunity exists, is in how he could ascend to the list of great baseball front office men of all time.

The Cubs Opportunity
Who wouldn't want to be
the next Branch Rickey?
If one man can be pointed to as the man who ended an 86-year old title drought in Boston and a drought over 105-years long in Chicago, he would be in rare, almost exclusive standing.

The only front office man who could potentially have a bigger standing in the history of Baseball would be Branch Rickey.

Perhaps, I'm way off base, but taking that into account, please tell me again, why is it so crazy to think Epstein may want to take over the Cubs? Or, Cashman, or Beane, or anyone for that matter?

In all likelihood, the Red Sox will prohibit teams from speaking with Theo Epstein. Instead, they will likely endorse Ben Cherington as their best in-house candidate to become a General Manager elsewhere. Would that be intriguing enough for the Cubs? I think it would be worth an interview, at least. In fact, I think Cherington, right now, is a front-runner for the opening. In other words, who's most likely to be the new Cubs General Manager? My list of candidates, not ranked by preference, but rather by likelihood of being hired is as follows:

The Cubs Opportunity
Andrew, there is a Tom Ricketts on
the phone. He says it's important.
1. Andrew Friedman
2. Ben Cherington
3. Brian Cashman
4. Billy Beane
5. Pat Gillick
6. Alex Anthopolous
7. Jerry DiPoto
8. Rick Hahn
9. Kim Ng
10. David Forst

Anyway, it's something like that. It would really be great if the Cubs went off the beaten path to hire Kim Ng, who would be the first woman ever tabbed to run a front office. If we were to get anyone on the list above, especially #3-6, North Siders could finally have some reason for optimism.

Alas, we didn't publish this piece last night and see that Buster Olney introduced his daily column this morning with a similar theme to the tweets we included above. In fact, he closes out his essay today with the following line that, as usual, more concisely sums up what I've been trying to share with all this blabber:
"Whoever gets the Cubs' job, though, is almost certainly going to be a heavyweight. 'It seems like it's more a matter of who they want, as opposed to who would agree to go there,' said one high-ranked executive."
Have a great day, we'll be back later on with a view at the National League MVP race. As always, please add to the conversation in our comments, below, or on our social media channels.

Prepping the Stove

Cubs fans have basically been stuck in Hot Stove forever, having not gone to the World Series in the past sixty-five years. As current fans have likely noticed, the team hasn't contended since being swept out of the first round of the playoffs in '07 and '08.

This year's pennant races may be spectacular in the end, but there are really only two playoff positions up for grabs. Taking a quick jaunt over to Coolstandings, we see that everything has basically been decided except for the AL Central and NL West champions.

2011 Playoff Probability

NL East
Prepping the Stove
The Phillies will roll into October.
Phillies 99.9%
Braves 95.6% (WC)

NL Central
Brewers 96.5%

NL West
Diamondbacks 68%
Giants 29.9%

AL East
Yankees 98.8%
Red Sox 95.4% (WC)

AL Central
Prepping the Stove
Verlander helps TV ratings
Tigers 66.2%
Indians 22.1%
White Sox 11.8%

AL West
Rangers 91.6%

WC = Wild Card

In other words, if the playoffs ended today, the Phillies would host the D'backs, and the Braves would be back in Milwaukee to play the Brewers. In the American League, the Yankees would have the unenviable task of facing Justin Verlander and the Tigers in the first round, while Boston would go to Dallas to play the Rangers.

Joe Posnanski had an interesting take on the future of baseball's pennant races with the inevitable advent of an additional playoff team. Check it out, if you have a few minutes.

Joe sort of alludes to how winning the AL East may not be as good as being the Wild Card because it could be better to play the Rangers than any team with 2011 Justin Verlander. If true, couldn't that make for an emotional end to the season as people's subconscious battle for what's more desirable?

Enough about the playoff possibilities. At this moment, we are here as a support system to baseball fans of distraught franchises. Does your team owe more than $30 million to a worthless player? Tell us about it. Has your best player been injured since 2009? We know the feeling. Empathy, we has it. Is your favorite player the fourth outfielder? Or the backup catcher? Let's talk hot stove.

Prepping the Stove
Astros owner, Jim Crane,
doesn't want to spend a lot.
While misery loves company, it's always nice to turn the page and lean towards optimism. We're going to look at upcoming Free Agent lists to see if anyone on the horizon, who might be able to help. Sorry for the truly small market thinking clubs right now. For example, it sounds like Houston's new owner is going to slash payroll. The Dodgers are going to be a mess for a while longer. We'll do a separate Astros post in the near future, and Dodger fans don't really care that much. They can still go to the beach or the movies or wherever. For other fans, even if your team doesn't have a ton of money, they might be able to make a savvy move or two.

The consistently enjoyable MLBtraderumors.com keeps track of upcoming free agents for this coming offseason, and the offseason after the 2012 season.

There are many players in the lists linked above. Take a look for yourself, it won't take long. Below are the names that we personally hand-picked as being more relevant to inspiring even an inkling of hope.

Please keep in mind, this is a primer for the true hot stove season. Please begin discussion topics in the comments section, or contact me via email or our social media channels. We're looking forward to providing more thoughts on what may be ahead as the market develops.

2012 MLB Free Agents

Catchers
*None*

First basemen
Prepping the Stove
Fielder's career has been on an
historical pace, hitting his prime.
Prince Fielder (28)
Albert Pujols (32)

Second basemen
Brandon Phillips (31) - $12MM club option / $1MM buyout

Shortstops
Jose Reyes (29)
Jimmy Rollins (33)

Third basemen
Aramis Ramirez (34)
Wilson Betemit (30)

Left fielders
Jonny Gomes (31)
Josh Willingham (33)

Center fielders
Grady Sizemore (29) - $8.5MM club option / $500K buyout
Carlos Beltran (35)
Coco Crisp (32)

Right fielders
Nick Swisher (31) - $10.25MM club option / $1MM buyout
Lance Berkman (36)
Jason Kubel (29)
Michael Cuddyer (33)
Josh Willingham (33)

Designated hitters
Prepping the Stove
Aramis may not know it, but he
would be a great Designated Hitter.
Aramis Ramirez (34)
Carlos Beltran (35)
Jason Kubel (29)
Johnny Damon (37)
Vladimir Guerrero (37)
David Ortiz (36)
Edwin Encarnacion (29) - $3.5MM club option / $500K buyout
Jim Thome (41)

Starting pitchers
C.C. Sabathia (31) - may opt out of remaining four years, $92MM
C.J. Wilson (31)
Chris Carpenter (37) - $15MM club option / $1MM buyout
Adam Wainwright (30)
Roy Oswalt (34) - $16MM mutual option / $2MM buyout
Edwin Jackson (28)
Mark Buehrle (33)
Dontrelle Willis (30)
Ryan Dempster (35) - $14MM player option, no buyout
Freddy Garcia (36)
Hiroki Kuroda (37)
Paul Maholm (30) - $9.75MM club option / $750K buyout
Rich Harden (30)
Tim Wakefield (45)

Right-handed relievers
Ryan Madson (31)
Jonathan Papelbon (31)
Heath Bell (34)
Francisco Rodriguez (30)
Jose Valverde (34) - $9MM club option, no buyout
Kerry Wood (35)
Michael Wuertz (33) - $3.25MM club option / $250K buyout
Jonathan Broxton (28)
Joel Peralta (36)
Micah Owings (29)
Mark Prior (31)

Off the top, maybe we'd rank the Top 10 MLB Free Agents as:

10. Aramis Ramirez
Prepping the Stove
Yu Darvish is ready
for Prime Time.
9. Brandon Phillips
8. Carlos Beltran
7. Chris Carpenter
6. C.J. Wilson
5. Jose Reyes
4. Albert Pujols
3. Prince Fielder
2. Yu Darvish*
1. CC Sabathia

*Hey, it's our blog, and we decided to include Yu Darvish, although he's not yet an official free agent. If he is made available by his Japanese club, we would aggressively place him just behind the incredible CC.

Major League front offices don't analyze free agent classes in a vacuum. Among many other things, like draft classes, international talent, and more, they keep multiple season classes in perspective. For simplicities sake, let's just look at the market for the 2013 season:

2013 MLB Free Agents

Catchers
Brian McCann (29) - $12MM club option / $500K buyout
Miguel Montero (29)
Mike Napoli (31)
Chris Iannetta (30) - $5MM club option / $250K buyout
Russell Martin (30)
David Ross (36)
Carlos Ruiz (34) - $5MM club option / $500K buyout
Jeff Mathis (30)

First basemen
*None*

Second basemen
Ian Kinsler (31) - $10MM club option / $500K buyout
Howie Kendrick (29)

Shortstops
Stephen Drew (30) - $10MM mutual option / $1.35MM buyout

Third basemen
David Wright (30) - $16MM club option / $1MM buyout
Kevin Youkilis (34) - $13MM club option / $1MM buyout

Left fielders
Josh Hamilton (32)
Delmon Young (27)

Center fielders
Curtis Granderson (32) - $13MM club option / $2MM buyout
Matt Kemp (28)
Prepping the Stove
GM's all over baseball are ready to
throw money at Matt Kemp.
B.J. Upton (28)
Michael Bourn (30)
Shane Victorino (32)

Right fielders
Andre Ethier (31)
Carlos Quentin (30)
Ichiro Suzuki (39)

Designated hitters
*None*

Starting pitchers
Zack Greinke (28)
Matt Cain (28)
Jered Weaver (30)
Cole Hamels (29)
Dan Haren (32) - $15.5MM club option / $3.5MM buyout
Tim Hudson (37) - $9MM club option / $1MM buyout
Shaun Marcum (31)
Ervin Santana (30) - $13MM club option / $1MM buyout
James Shields (31) - $9MM club option / $1.5MM buyout
John Danks (28)
Francisco Liriano (29)
Gavin Floyd (30) - $9.5MM club option
Jeremy Guthrie (34)
Brandon McCarthy (29)
Colby Lewis (33)
Jake Peavy (31)
Anibal Sanchez (29)
Jonathan Sanchez (30)
Jorge de la Rosa (32) - $11MM player option / $1MM buyout
R.A. Dickey (38) - $5MM club option / $300K buyout

Right-handed relievers
Mariano Rivera (43)
Joakim Soria (29) - $8MM club option / $750K buyout
Huston Street (29) - $9MM mutual option / $500K buyout if club declines
Leo Nunez (29)
Brandon League (30)
J.J. Putz (36) - $6.5MM club option / $1.5MM buyout
Mike Adams (34)
Grant Balfour (35) - $4.5MM club option / $350K buyout
Matt Lindstrom (33) - $4MM club option / $200K buyout
Taylor Buchholz (31)
Jose Contreras (41) - $2.5MM club option / $500K buyout
Joel Peralta (37)
Prepping the Stove
Sean Marshall is ready for a nice
3 yr/$30-something million deal.
Robinson Tejeda (31)
Carlos Villanueva (29)

Left-handed relievers
Sean Marshall (30)
J.P. Howell (28)
Sean Burnett (30)
Hong-Chih Kuo (31)

That is an amazing array of Starting Pitchers available for 2013.

Which player sounds best for your favorite team? Which position is the scarcest? Who's at the top of your "avoid" list?

Please add to the comments section, email, or tweet at us.

Rare and Coincidental

Speaking of rare triple plays*, makes me think of my old playing days. Let's go back 19 years, to 1992, in Highland Park, IL. I'm playing the unfamiliar position of catcher, mostly by default, but also because of the fact that I enjoyed calling the game. If you're a control freak who thinks pitching would be fun, try catching.

*Yeah, my friend today shared footage of a "very rare" 4-6-2-3 double play, for which I could not share a commensurate level of celebratory enthusiasm. No doubt, I could have feigned a keen interest in the highlight, but I subscribe to following a few Bob Dylan lyrics, including the out of context, "you must be honest."

Getting back to the most remarkable play I've ever been involved in, we were playing a High School game in Highland Park. There were runners on the corners, with no outs, when the opposing batter lifted a short fly ball into center field. The Centerfielder made the catch, threw a strike to me in such hurried fashion that the runner from third said, "Oh s#!t" while retreating back towards 3rd. I took a few steps, tagged him and was able to get a throw to 2nd base in time for an 8-2-6 triple play.

It's a weird feeling being part of a triple play, especially when there are no announcers and a very sparse crowd. It's one of those moments that sort of doesn't hit you right away. It was some time later, when we looked around at eachother and shared in the rare company we kept.

Until this moment, however, I did not know how rare an 8-2-6 triple play actually is. According to the website for the Society of American Baseball Research, this form of triple play has only happened twice in the history of Major League Baseball.

Rare and Coincidental
These guys are the worst.
Most recently, Mark McGwire hit into one on May 31, 2000 in Arizona, playing Buck Showalter's Diamondbacks. It happened to be the 1st triple play ever for the Diamondbacks.

Almost 100 years prior to that occurrence, two other events were taking place at the same time, but on other sides of the globe.

Rare and Coincidental
Smoot could hit.
In New York's Polo Grounds, on July 1, 1903, the St. Louis Cardinals faced off against the Giants. No-one new it at the time, but this game would be remembered over a century later because Homer Smoot hit into Major League Baseball's first ever 8-2-6 triple play.

Remarkably, matching up with McGwire, as a CArdinal, illustrates that the 8-2-6 triple play happened to two St. Louis Cardinals and no-one else!

A quick glance through SABR's website shows more than a few 4-6-3-2 triple plays during the years. Establishing that 8-2-6 triple plays are much more rare than ones with using any combination of four infielders, we dig a little deeper to see just how coincidental this event in sports history was.

Across the pond, on the same day, July 1, 1903, people were celebrating the first ever Tour de France bicycle race. The inaugural Tour was won by Maurice Garin, who was born in a French speaking town in Northwest Italy.

1903. The Cubs were just a couple of years away from their Glory Years. Good times... and yet... sigh.

Rare and Coincidental
Maurice Garin was legendary over 100 years ago.

The Best of the Scrapheap

The month of August is a good time to keep tabs on Ben Nicholson Smith's continuously updated Players Who Cleared Waivers post.

Reading it on the Subway tonight after work, a handful of pitchers stood out:

Chris Capuano, Mets - Capuano owns a 3.74 SIERA as of August 14th and earns only $1.5MM plus incentives, so it's hard to see why a few teams didn't place claims.

Bronson Arroyo, Reds - His peripheral stats haven't changed much, but Arroyo has a 5.31 ERA as of August 15th. $15MM of his $35MM contract is deferred through 2021 without interest. The deferrals are voided if he's traded, however. At any rate, expect Arroyo to stay put.

Jason Vargas, Mariners - Like many of the starters here, Vargas' fastball wouldn't break a window. But he has less than a million bucks left on his contract this year and is under team control through 2013. He'd fit nicely at the back end of several rotations.

Tom Gorzelanny, Nationals - Booted to the bullpen last month, the 29-year-old flyballing southpaw has posted strong strikeout rates in recent years but can't hold a rotation job.

Ted Lilly, Dodgers - He always has strong strikeout-to-walk numbers, but is prone to the longball. With over 82% of his $33MM contract remaining ($27MM+), it's no surprise he cleared waivers.
At first, I thought Capuano was the best option for a contender, especially someone like Arizona who's home stadium is good for left-handed hitters.

Just for fun, I geeked it up and looked at Team xFIP stats versus left-handed and right-handed hitters. Then, I looked at a few stats for the five guys above to see if any of them may be relatively good options.

AL Team xFIP vs RHB (league rank)
Indians 3.65 (1st)
The Best of the Scrapheap
Apparently Santos isn't the only
guy pitching well in the South Side.
White Sox 3.72 (2nd)
Yankees 3.77 (4rd)
Rangers 3.82 (6th)
Angels 3.87 (6th)
Red Sox 4.07 (9th)
Tigers 4.15 (11th)

AL Team xFIP vs LHB
White Sox 3.71 (1st)
Yankees 3.77 (2nd)
Angels 3.96 (t-4th)
Rangers 3.97 (6th)
Tigers 3.98 (7th)
Red Sox 4.04 (11th)
Indians 4.19 (13th)

NL Team xFIP vs RHB
Phillies 3.25 (1st)
The Best of the Scrapheap
The tradition of pitching
excellence continues in Atl
Braves 3.38 (2nd)
Brewers 3.52 (3rd)
Giants 3.53 (4th)
Cardinals 3.66 (6th)
Diamondbacks 4.09 (16th – last)

NL Team xFIP vs LHB
Giants 3.49 (1st)
Braves 3.55 (2nd)
Brewers 3.62 (3rd)
Phillies 3.65 (4th)
Diamondbacks 3.80 (7th)
Cardinals 4.09 (13th)

If anything, this could give White Sox fans reason for hope this season. By these metrics, they have the best pitching in the American League. The Yankees are right there, too, and their offense trumps what Ozzie and Company have as a lineup.

The Diamondbacks' ineffectiveness against right-handed batters was surprising. My first instincts may have been right, and Kevin Towers should call his old boss, Sandy Alderson, to make a swap for Capuano.

When it comes to the low-priced options, really any contender could justify a low-risk, high-reward gamble.

Without further ado, here's a few looks at these five guys:

2011 SIERA
Tom Gorzelanny 3.64
The Best of the Scrapheap
Gorzelanny may be a LOOGY for years.
Chris Capuano 3.69
Ted Lilly 3.79
Jason Vargas 4.29
Bronson Arroyo 4.31

2011 xFIP vs LHB
Tom Gorzelanny 3.26
Ted Lilly 3.66
Chris Capuano 3.86
Jason Vargas 4.07
Bronson Arroyo 4.89

2011 xFIP vs RHB
Chris Capuano 3.84
Bronson Arroyo 3.93
Ted Lilly 4.08
Tom Gorzelanny 4.27
Jason Vargas 4.44

Um, Gorzelanny and Capuano can get hitters out. They'd both be good, low-risk moves for just about anyone.

The Best of the Scrapheap
Sandy, we have Kevin on the line.
It would be great to see Alderson and Towers make a deal after their employer/employee relationship in San Diego.

Lilly and Arroyo are overpaid. They'll probably battle for the next couple of years as starters, but they would be more effective in the bullpen.

Jason Vargas is a good gamble for a non-contender because he's under team control for next year. He may not be an elite pitcher, but he's left handed.

Thanks to Fangraphs for the stats.

Mentality of Zambrano

This story feels so familiar. We've been through this before with Carlos Zambrano. Heck, the cubs organization has went through something similar with Sammy Sosa and Milton Bradley. Of course, Carlos Zambrano will not retire. He's made a lot of money in his career, but certainly he will not walk away from another $22 million coming his way. This story feels like it's developed for the great blog It Is About the Money, Stupid.

This isn't a player with bright prospects for life after baseball. He hasn't demonstrated an aptitude for anything more than throwing heavy sinkers and hitting long fly balls. He won't retire, but he's likely signed his ticket out of town.

Mentality of Zambrano
His mentality has always been shaky, immature, and of course volatile. But, he was our crazy Big Z. Sometimes, his passion was an asset. He'd fire up himself, the fans, and even distract the focus of opponents when he seemed wildly unpredictable on the hill. Carlos Zambrano came up to the Cubs as a very young man and showed an exciting ability to throw strikes and get hitters out. He blossomed as an elite pitcher in the shadows of Prior and Wood, then developed into the ace after their careers veered in different directions. His ace status never seemed to shine that bright. Perhaps the mileage on his arm, combined with his less than peak physical shape, have caused his fastball to slow down and movement to diminish. On the bright side, he is still theoretically young enough to rebound and have a few more good years. Time will tell.

I'm afraid Carlos Zambrano has played his last game as a Chicago Cub. Still, the feelings today don't have the usual kind of shock or surprise that come with sudden retirement talk and teams disqualifying a player. Heck, I had a feeling his blood would be boiling relatively soon. It's inexplicable almost, but I was anticipating some fireworks. In fact, a few hours before his start, I half jokingly tumblr'd a picture of Big Z with two hashtags: #Zambrano and #crazy.

Thirty days of no pay and no contact with the team should do Carlos Zambrano some good. It seems like this is another black eye for an ogranization that has been in the infirmary for the past century. The Cubs are losing more and more credibility with the fans with the passing of time.

Expect this to play out like Sosa and Bradley. Zambrano will likely be DQ'd the rest of the season, then traded somewhere for a really bad contract (think Carlos Silva) or a couple of non-prospects, with the Cubs still paying most of the 22 mil.

2011 MLB Attendance Trends

The last time we took a look at Baseball-Reference's nifty "2010 vs. 2011 Attendance" page, the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays had the most improved attendance, while crowds for the LA Dodgers and Seattle Mariners dwindled.

Let's take a quick peek at how the teams are doing tonight, the 23rd anniversary of the Cubs' first night game, 8/8/88.

2011 MLB Attendance Trends
PNC Park is beautiful.
As you'll see in the numbers below, Texas is still leading the pack after their surprise AL Pennant win last season. Pittsburgh Pirates fans started showing up after their unfamiliar competitiveness in July. The Padres numbers reverted back to 2010 numbers, as they are only 27 tickets sold per game above last season's pace. Lastly, the typically embarrassing fans in Atlanta are ranked 28th out of 30 teams, even though their team is currently leading the Wild Card race, with a 75% chance of making the playoffs per Coolstandings. At the top of the list, we expect a couple of teams pass the reeling Pirates, as the World Champion Giants - now featuring Carlos Beltrán - and the up and coming Cleveland Indians - with new Ace, Ubaldo Jiménez - are poised for late season runs.

Rk Tm DiffPerGame ▾
1 TEX 7,625
2 PIT 4,751
3 SFG 4,689
4 CLE 3,783
5 CIN 3,177
6 TOR 3,090
7 MIL 1,504
8 COL 826
9 OAK 697
10 PHI 461
11 FLA 274
12 BOS 27
13 SDP 27
14 BAL -167
15 DET -176
16 KCR -202
17 MIN -229
18 ARI -386
19 LAA -883
20 CHW -1,402
21 WSN -1,472
22 CHC -1,487
23 NYY -1,736
24 HOU -1,883
25 STL -2,452
26 NYM -2,660
27 TBR -2,673
28 ATL -3,516
29 SEA -4,213
30 LAD -7,902
total -84
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/8/2011.

2011 MLB Attendance Trends
Many Dodger fans are boycotting McCourtapalooza 2011

Ugliest Pitcher Wins of 2011

On Friday night, Jered Weaver and Aaron Harang exemplified what pitcher "Wins" are worth.

Weaver wound up with a no-decision in his team's 1-0 extra inning victory over Seattle. He pitched 9 shutout innings, scattering 7 hits, walking 1, and striking out 8 Mariners.

Ugliest Pitcher Wins of 2011
According to Bill James's Game Score*, this was Weaver's 4th best start of the season, but only second best non win.

Facing the Twins on May 28th, Weaver pitched 9 scoreless innings, giving up just 2 hits and 2 walks, with 7 strikeouts, in a 10-inning loss. The Game Scores for Jered Weaver these two No Decisions were 80 and 88, respectively.

*To calculate GmSc, start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (or 3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

Ugliest Pitcher Wins of 2011
Facing the reeling Pirates in Pittsburgh, Aaron Harang was the beneficiary of outstanding run support.

Harang earned a Win while giving up 4 runs, on 13 hits and 3 walks, while striking out just one opposing batter. That batter was the opposing pitcher, Jeff Karstens. Harang's start earned a 23 GmSc.

As we'll see in a few minutes, Harang's Friday night was the 2nd worst outing for any starting pitcher earning a win this season. Below is an assemblage of 2011's lowest scoring Wins.

Max Scherzer, GmSc: 29
In his first start of the year, the third game of the season, Scherzer gave up 6 runs, over 5 innings, on 4 Yankee homers. If not for 6 strikeouts, he would have ended up in Harangutan territory on this list. The Tigers prevailed, ultimately, because Phil Hughes, Bartolo Colon, and the artist formerly known as Joba gave up 10 runs.

Nick Blackburn, GmSc: 29
A month ago, on the South Side of Chicago, Blackburn got the win despite giving up 10 hits and 5 earned runs over five innings. What's the worst part of his performance? He gave up a home run to 2011 Adam Dunn.

John Lackey, GmSc: 29
Ugliest Pitcher Wins of 2011
Get used to watching Lackey "battle"
Just as Scherzer had done the week before, John Lackey capitalized on Girardi's Hughes/Colon tandem in their second appearances of the season. Lackey gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings; Hughes didn't retire a batter in the 3rd.

Tim Wakefield, GmSc: 28
The Red Sox offense is the best in baseball. They lead all of baseball with a Team OPS+ of 119. For more standard view of their excellence, here is every team sorted by Runs per Game.

Ugliest Pitcher Wins of 2011
Is Ellsbury a Top 5 MVP candidate?
Tm R/G ▾
BOS 5.48
NYY 5.37
TEX 5.04
STL 4.77
CIN 4.66
TOR 4.66
COL 4.53
ARI 4.52
NYM 4.50
DET 4.47
MIL 4.43
KCR 4.42
PHI 4.41
TBR 4.28
CLE 4.28
LgAvg 4.24
BAL 4.13
CHC 4.10
ATL 4.05
FLA 4.01
WSN 3.95
CHW 3.92
MIN 3.92
OAK 3.87
LAA 3.85
PIT 3.82
HOU 3.76
LAD 3.68
SDP 3.65
SFG 3.47
SEA 3.33
4.24
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/7/2011.

Interestingly, Wakefield's ugly win came against the team at the bottom of the league in scoring, Seattle. Wakefield gave up 7 earned runs to the Mariners over 6 and a third. Their offense was more than enough to humble rookie Michael Pineda in their first encounter.

Kyle Drabek, GmSc: 27
Ugliest Pitcher Wins of 2011
Speaking of the Red Sox offense, future star, Kyle Drabek, was sent down to the minor leagues after his June 12th start against Boston. The Game Scores of his last three Major League starts were 28, 27, and 17. Unfortunately, he isn't pitching much better in the Pacific Coast League. He has labored through nine starts to the tune of a 6.60 ERA, and 1.97 WHIP. Kyle Drabek earned a seat at our proverbial table by defeating the Kansas City Royals in Kauffman Stadium on the evening of June 7th. His GmSc is particularly low because he failed to strike out anyone.

Aaron Harang, GmSc: 23
It's hard to believe a GmSc could be so low when only giving up 4 runs over 5 innings, but Harang was exceptionally gracious in allowing base runners on Friday night. Allowing only four runs on thirteen hits and three walks is more remarkable.

Jo-Jo Reyes, GmSc: 21
Ugliest Pitcher Wins of 2011
Jo-Jo's quite a model.
This was the game Bartolo Colon gave up 8 runs and couldn't get out of the first, and Sergio Mitre ensured the Yankees wouldn't be within striking distance in the 8th and 9th. Jo-Jo gave up 7 earned runs, pitching 5 and a third. He walked a guy, struck out two, and gave up ten hits.

If anyone witnesses an uglier pitcher win, or any pitcher win with a GmSc under 30, please give us a holler in the comment section, or one of our social media outlets. Enjoy the rest of your day, and more.