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Today's cherry picked numbers of the day belong to top prospect, turned middle relief star, Brian Matusz of the Baltimore Orioles.

Brian Matusz 2012 Split Stats

Including Games, Runs, and Hits is absurd, but it gets me thinking of which pitchers have the greatest discrepancy in role split stats.*

Brian Matusz, who turns 26 next week, could be a crafty LOOGY past 2030.

*stay tuned

Recent Scott Hairston rumors have him deciding between the Braves, Phillies, Cubs, or either New York team any day now. I took a quick glimpse at his stats and thought "The under-.300 OBP and over-.500 SLG Scott Hairston posted last year's gotta be kinda rare." As you will see, this whole discussion/monlogue gets out of hand in a hurry. Although there's plenty of incoherent babbling below, I can savor the satisfaction of knowing that my man's intuition was right this time.

How rare is the under-.300 OBP/over-.500 SLG achievement?

According to Baseball-Reference, among seasons with at least 300 plate appearances, it is a relatively new phenomenon that has only happened eight times, and never happened before 1976.

The club's founding father was Dave Kingman of the 1976 Mets.


Fans knew Dave Kingman as a one dimensional player who could do little more than hit towering home runs.

Kingman's only trip to the postseason was his rookie year of 1971. That year, his San Francisco Giants only won 1 game in the best-of-five NLCS against Roberto Clemente's Pittsburgh Pirates. Kingman went just 1-for-9, with a single, a walk and 3 strikeouts, but he helped the Mets get to the postseason by hitting 37 home runs.

In 1976, Dave Kingman played in his first of three All-Star Games and received MVP votes for the second straight season - one of five seasons in which he would receive MVP votes.

Although Kingman's one dimensional production didn't often translate to victories, GM's dig the long ball. Over his 16-year career, Kingma hit 442 home runs but did little else of value on the field. According to Baseball-Reference, Kingman's career was 14.8 Wins Above Replacement, but a negative-6.5 Wins Above Average. He had 6 years of above average production and 10 years where he was below average.

In Dave Kingman's last season with the Mets, 1983, the Blue Jays' Jesse Barfield became the first player to join Dave Kingman in The -.300 OBP/+.500 SLG Club.

Barfield played eight-and-a-half seasons for the Blue Jays and three-and-a-half for the Yankees to make up his 12-year career, and was only 23-years old in 1983. Unlike Kingman, Barfield played good outfield defense and was a better hitter, with patience in the batters box. Comparing Jesse Barfield's Career bWAR and WAA stats with Dave Kingman's 14.8 and -6.5, respectively, Barfield shines with a 37.2 bWAR and 21.8 WAA.

The #4 Overall pick in the June 1984 Amateur Draft was Cory Snyder, the star shortstop from Brigham Young and the '84 US Olympic team. Like most #4 overall picks, Cory Snyder was an emerging star. He starred everywhere he played.

Cory Snyder was so talented. He went to BYU as a pitcher but hit a Home Run in his first three at bats. He made the All-Conference Team (WAC) in '82 and '83. He starred at Invitationals and the elite Summer Leagues of Cape Cod and Alaska, winning MVP and/or All-Star honors everywhere he went. A consensus All-American his Junior year, Cory Snyder set BYU career records in total bases and RBI, plus finished 2nd All-Time in NCAA Career Home Runs. We'll get to Snyder's pro career in a minute. First, we should recognize the contributions to our club from 1985.

Some of us remember Tony Armas as a powerful, pinch-hitting star on the "Bo" team in Nintendo's "R.B.I. Baseball". It was strange that this team was a representative of the 1986 Red Sox, but they gave Armas his home run total from 1984, when he lead the lead with 43. His OBP in '84 was .300 on the nose, so he delayed making our club until '85, when his .298 OBP coincided with a .514 SLG.


As an illustration of how these rare seasons happen, check out a few rate stats for Tony Armas in 1985, his career, and the league averages over his career:


The best case for playing time from Armas is that 1 out of every 9 plate appearances results in an extra base hit. 5-to-1 strikeout to walk ratios don't get your name written in the lineup very often, unless you can get just enough hits to be palatable and something like 44% of your hits are for extra bases.

When Cory Snyder made his Major League debut for the Cleveland Indians on June 13, 1986, the team was surprisingly decent after losing 102 games the year before. They called him up and put him in right field to get his bat in the lineup.

Early in his career, Cory Snyder hit for great power. He hit 24, 33, and 26 home runs his first three seasons, even though he was in the minor leagues for the first two months of his rookie year, so it's basically 83 home runs in 2.6 years. How many people have hit at least 83 Home Runs in their first 3 MLB seasons? Eighteen. That's it. In the history of Baseball, only eighteen ballplayers have hit as many home runs in their first three seasons as Cory Snyder. For your reference, here is the Top 25:


Not to get even more hopelessly off track, the group of people ahead of Cory Snyder tell their own fascinating stories. Of the 15 people who hit more homers than Snyder their first three seasons, we have...

Six Hall of Famers:

Ralph Kiner hit 294 Home Runs before turning 30, but only 75 afterwards.

Kiner
Matthews
DiMaggio
Robinson
Klein
Williams

Six active players:
Pujols
Teixiera
Braun
Stanton
Uggla
Reynolds

Three (Other):
Tony C.
Bob Horner
McGwire

When Cory Snyder's body began to break down, he was never able to return to the levels of production he found in his early 20's. Unfortunately, Snyder was never a very good defensive player in the big leagues, and retired with some cringe-worthy numbers, like a .291 OBP and 992 strikeouts, compared with only 904 hits.

This is a great example of two phenomena ... (1) The S.I. Curse and (2) God Hates Cleveland

Fast forward ten years, to 1996, and the club welcomes Tony Clark, also taking part in his first full season in the Big Leagues. As a 24-year old in 1996, Tony Clark played 100 games for the Detroit Tigers. This was not a good team. This was the team that lost 109 games. Their pitching staff, which included the likes of Felipe Lira, Greg Gohr, and Todd Van Poppel, combined for a 6.38 ERA. The 1,103 runs that pitching staff gave up is 175 more runs than the 2003 Tigers, who lost 119 games! Those 1,103 runs given up are also the 7th most all time and the most since 1930.

"Hi, I'm Tony Clark."

Unlike many of the other members of The under-.300 OBP/over-.500 SLG Club, Tony Clark learned to harness his patience at the plate rather quickly. After his .299 OBP in 1996, he followed up with OBP's of .376, .358, .361, .349, and .374 from 1997 through 2001.

In 2002, Marcus Thames made his Major League debut with the Yankees. In June of the following year, the Yankees traded him to Texas for Ruben Sierra. Texas must have regretted the move, somewhat, as they granted him free agency in October.

Marcus Thames signed with the Tigers in 2004 and spent the bulk of his career there in Motown. During the 2008 season, Thames made our group by clubbing 25 HR's while only reaching base safely a grand total of 100 times (76 hits, 24 walks, 0 HBP).

Marcus Thames celebrating after an RBI

Mike Jacobs had a good agent.

The same year Marcus Thames was crusading for our .299/.499 crew in the American League, Mike Jacobs was doing a similar job in the senior circuit. 1998 was the last time Mike Jacobs received 500 plate appearances in a season. He did not have a good season, as his sub-.300 OBP attests. The sadly unsurprising thing is that the Kansas City Royals gambled on him being an impact first baseman for them in 2009. He was not.

Mike Jacobs's ratio stats were even more heavily skewed to feast or famine than the Tony Armas numbers we saw above. 52% of Mike Jacobs's hits in 2008 went for extra bases.

Perhaps the sting of what Mike Jacobs did to the Royals, or the general lack of stardom from any of the eight players we've highlighted in this demented group, is what is keeping many General Managers away from Scott Hairston.

There's no reason to think that Hairston is a bad player, by any means. His defense is better than every single other person in the group. Plus, he is a bonafide situational right-handed hitter, who can hit well against lefties. His split OPS+, as a RHB vs LHP last season was 126, meaning he was 26% better than the average RHB vs a LHP. Over his career, he is a .276/.325/.500 hitter against left-handers. If used in the correct way, Scott Hairston can be one of the best 4th Outfielders in the game.

Who will it be? Mets? Yankees? Phillies? Cubs? Braves? Mystery team?

Stay tuned. We'll soon learn if he is going to be paid more or less.

Thanks for reading!

Please join the discussion on Twitter or below.

It's no secret that Tim Raines was underrated during his playing days. During his time on the Hall of Fame ballot, his case for induction has gained steam, similarly to Bert Blyleven's mostly blog-fueled campaign a few years back.

Unfortunately for Tim Raines and his fans, Rock's timing appears less than ideal. The ballot is overcrowded and looks to get more-so as soon as next year, with the additions of Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, and more. Adding to the logistical problems with the ballot's ten vote max, BBWAA voters may be too consumed with decisions about PED whispers, the character clause, as well as testimony from everyone short of Lance Armstrong and Manti Te'o.


Just as a quick example of how Tim Raines has perpetually been underrated, we have a fine example in the 1985 MVP Voting.

In 1985, Tim Raines ranked 5th in the National League in the Baseball-Reference version of Wins Above Replacement, 4th in WARP by Baseball Prospectus, and tied for 2nd in Fangraphs WAR. In spite of this, Raines finished 12th in MVP voting, one spot below Vince Coleman.

Every year has funky voting. A top-5 player placing 12th in the vote isn't an obscenely egregious snub. Plus, there's not much to be said about two players being separated by just one vote. The remarkable things are that Vince Coleman should not be anywhere near a 1985 MVP discussion, and should be so easy to compare to Raines as a fellow base-stealing leadoff hitter.

Vince Coleman ranked 64th by bWAR in 1985, 101st in WARP, and 47th by fWAR.

Ok, so sportswriters couldn't really look up WAR in 1985. So, we can't hold that against them. They also didn't have OPS+ in the 1980's, but just so you know... Vince Coleman's OPS+ was 86 (14% worse than the league average left-fielder)/ Tim Raines's OPS+ was 151 (51% better than average).

The BBWAA didn't have some of these "advanced" stats in 1985, but they did have batting average. In fact, the BBWAA still loves Batting Average, which makes these results so surprising, since Tim Raines's batting average dwarfed Vince Coleman's.

BREAKING: Tim Raines is one of the greatest baseball players of all time.

The differences in batting slash lines are atrocious:

Tim Raines: .320/.405/.475
Vince Coleman: .267/.320/.335

That's a 53-point difference in Batting Average, an 85-point difference in OBP, and a 140-point difference in slugging!

For all that we want to complain about the BBWAA voters of today, i'st doubtful that future voting results will be driven by something as insignificantly single-minded as Stolen Bases. Vince Coleman electrified the baseball world his rookie season of 1985 by stealing 110 bases, which is still the 9th highest total of all time. Raines was 2nd in the league in Stolen Bases that year, with 70.

Stolen Bases trumped all in '85 Coleman v Raines

Ignore the fact that Tim Raines outperformed Coleman in Hits, Walks, Runs, Double, Triples, Home Runs (11 to 1), and Runs Batted In. Sports writers, in 1985, must have seen that Coleman had many more stolen bases than Tim Raines, so he must have been more valuable.

Unless you're Woody Paige, that's about as lazy as award voting can get.

It's just surprising that the BBWAA could be so wrong when comparing two contemporary players, in the same league, playing the same position, and batting in the same spot of the batting order. Still, as we said, this is nothing new. It's just a snapshot.

Take a look at one year prior, 1984, and you'll see Tim Raines along with Gary Carter, Dwight Gooden, and a few others weren't given their due by the MVP voters.

Leon Durham was one of 7 Cubs to get MVP votes in the glory days of 1984

In this case, Tim Raines ranked 4th in the National League by bWAR, but placed 11th in MVP voting. Again, this happens all the time and isn't a huge deal. Just take a look at a few of the undeserving that ranked ahead of him, and it's absurd.

The 1984 Cubs were a huge story that year. They were the first Cubs team to make the postseason since 1945, and MVP voters showered the team with praise. Seven Cubs received MVP votes that year. Four Cubs placed ahead of Raines (4!) even though only Ryne Sandberg, who won the award, had a higher bWAR.

What are you gonna do? Hall of Fame and yearly award voting results have befuddled baseball fans for decades and will continue to do so. All we can hope for, as fans, or as people in any walk of life, is for improvement.

Robinson Cano's impending contract extension or free agency, has been a recurring theme in the minds of Yankees fans over the past year, or so. A rising number of Yankees fans are growing tired of Cano's salary demands, with thoughts akin to: if he doesn't want to be a Yankee at all costs, let him go. It's unclear why an audible amount of Yankees fans can't appreciate having one of the best 2nd basemen of all time, entering his 30's.

It's wise to be wary of your favorite team overpaying for a player's past-prime years, but it's another thing to criticize one of your team's homegrown stars, citing poor defense, his style of play, or other nitpicked flaws.

Where will Robinson Cano play in 2014? Mystery team?

Last night, a fan posted a comment which adds to this sentiment, on the Yankees MLBtradeRumors Facebook fan page, which I monitor for the great guys at MLBTR. The comment:

"Let Cano spread his wings and fly away. The perfect 2nd baseman;the complete package is the Reds' 2nd base Phillips. A beast in defense. Get that guy and let Cano away in New York."

Far be it from us to poke fun as a person's honest opinion. This passionate Yankee fan, in particular, is probably someone we don't want to mess with. His Facebook profile says he's the body guard of Miss Venezuela. Even if that's not true, I don't want to mess with any guy who puts that on their profile page.

I wonder if she knows Wilson Ramos.

What he said isn't completely insane. Phillips is a 2-time All-Star, won a Silver Slugger award, 3 Gold Gloves, and received MVP votes in two seasons where he did not win any awards. It's just unlikely to be correct and, more to the point, an example of how our passion as fans can blind us from the clarity of reality.

Robinson Cano is also a good defensive player; he is sure-handed, with a very strong arm. Cano is a better hitter than Brandon Phillips. He has more power, hits for a higher average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and every other percentage.

Robinson Cano has the type of hitting skills that age gracefully. Much more gracefully than Phillips, who projects as an aging 20/20 threat who will hit .240 with a sub-.330 OBP, hitting HR's in the teens, with fewer stolen bases, in his mid-30's. Cano should age more like a "professional hitter" who can still hit .280 through his 40th birthday.

Care to talk Win Shares? Robinson Cano has one more Win Share (98) in the past three seasons than Brandon Phillips has in the past five seasons (97).

"Man, I ain't here to talk about no Win Shares."

We've probably already spilled a few too many words here than this debate deserves. If pictures may do the talking, the next two graphs, courtesy of Fangraphs, should help. They show the trends of wOBA for Phillips and Cano.

The first one has the year on the X axis:


The second graph has the player's age season on the X axis. Notice that Brandon Phillips is older than Cano.

As we can see, there is little to no visual evidence suggesting that Brandon Phillips will outperform Robinson Cano at any time.

Are there other Yankee fans out there who don't want Cano to come back? What's a fair contract for him? We would love to hear from you in the comments section. Thanks!

Most baseball fans above the age of 10 have been waiting a long time for this year's Hall of Fame ballot. Later today, the Baseball Writers Association of America will release their yearly Hall of Fame voting results.


Before the news cycle gets into the voting results, let's get our proverbial, non-existent, virtual hall of fame "ballot" finished.

Part I of this two part series left us with 20 players to consider for a maximum of 10 virtual Hall of Fame votes. Our remainder:

Sandy Alomar Jr.
1. Jeff Bagwell
2. Craig Biggio
3. Barry Bonds
Jeff Cirillo
Royce Clayton
4. Roger Clemens
Jeff Conine
Steve Finley
Julio Franco
Shawn Green
Roberto Hernandez
Ryan Klesko
5. Kenny Lofton
6. Edgar Martinez
7. Don Mattingly
8. Fred McGriff
9. Mark McGwire
Jose Mesa
10. Jack Morris
11. Dale Murphy
12. Rafael Palmeiro
13. Mike Piazza
14. Tim Raines
Reggie Sanders
15. Curt Schilling
Aaron Sele
Lee Smith
16. Sammy Sosa
Mike Stanton
17. Alan Trammell
18. Larry Walker
Todd Walker
19. David Wells
Rondell White
20. Bernie Williams
Woody Williams

Left with difficult decisions, let's try to make succinct sense of what we can and have some fun with this...

There were four easy "Yes" votes, going to:

Edgar Martinez
One of the 25 best hitters of all time. Martinez hit for a high average, with power, and had enough patience to walk more times than he struck out. He led the league in On Base Percentage 3 times, won 2 batting titles, led the league in runs scored once, doubles twice, and RBI another time. Martinez didn't play in more than 65 Major League games until after his 27th birthday. Over a 14-year period, from 1990-2003, he averaged over 20 Win Shares per season. Owner of a career .312/.418/.515 slash line, Edgar Martinez is probably the best Designated Hitter of all time.

Craig Biggio
Over the same 14-year period we mention above for Edgar Martinez, from 1990-2003, Craig Biggio averaged over 25 Win Shares per season. For all the minuses tallied by Martinez for being a designated hitter, Biggio is credited for performing at a high level, while manning three demanding, up-the-middle positions defensively. I thought Joe Posnanski put it nicely, in his 2013 Hall of Fame ballot column: "Only player ever to play 250 games at catcher, center field and second base, but then he's the only player to play 100 games at all three positions as well. In fact, he's the only player to play even 50 games at all three positions."

It looks like no-one will get elected by the BBWAA this year, but Biggio should be one of the next guys in, along with Greg Maddux, at least, next season.

Tim Raines
It's almost infuriating that Tim Raines has not been recognized by 75% of the voters as a Hall of Fame player. Maybe his cocaine problems have affected his vote totals more than most people realize.

Tim Raines was probably the 2nd best leadoff hitter of all time. He was certainly the 2nd best leadoff hitter of his era, but his era included the G.O.A.T: Vince Coleman Rickey Henderson.

In 1986, Raines won a batting and OBP title, and followed it up in 1987 with an almost identical Batting Average  higher OBP, and placing 9th in the National League in Slugging Percentage. Raines made seven consecutive All-Star teams.

Tim Raines reached base safely over 4,000 times and has a higher career WAR than Tony Gwynn, according to both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs. It should only be a matter of time until Tim Raines makes it to Cooperstown.

Jeff Bagwell
Much like with Raines, it's only a matter of time before Jeff Bagwell gets into the Hall of Fame.

Maybe 2014 will be a big year for inductions, particularly of teammates. Frank Thomas should get in, which will get Bagwell in. Biggio is on the doorstep, and another set of teammates: Maddux and Glavine are near locks. We're still years away from having to worry about Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent.

Bagwell hit the scene in 1991, promptly winning Rookie of the Year. In his 4th big league season, Bagwell won the National League MVP. He proceeded to earn over 20 Win Shares every year of his career until he was only able to play 39 games in his final season, 2005. What is it with 14-year spans and this group? For the 14-years between '91 and '04, Jeff Bagwell averaged 27.4 Win Shares per season.

We now have 16 players left for no more than 6 votes. Let's start taking candidates away from the list of 16. Among this group, I'm actually able to select 10 that I will not "vote" for, then we'll see if each of the remaining six get the nod of approval. So, these ten (10) carefully considered "No" votes go to:

David Wells
With a better Hall of Fame case than many expected before taking a closer look, Boomer was a great pitcher, for many years, who threw strikes - routinely among the best in BB/9 rates. He pitched in the postseason for six different franchises. Not that it matters, but he played well for teams on the East Coast, West Coast, the Midwest, and Canada. What's interesting is if his being on this ballot affected the voting for the next player on this list...

Jack Morris
With a gritty and ornery groundswell of votes the past handful of years, it looked like Morris was destined to enter Cooperstown this Summer, after Bert Blyleven did so last year. For one reason, or another, it looks like some voters are saying "not so fast." Having an ERA+ lower than David Wells maybe should not matter. Maybe it hasn't mattered to any voters. It surely cannot help the case for Jack Morris.

Bernie Williams
Smooth as silk, Bernie Williams swung a bat that crushed baseballs and plays a classical guitar that breaks hearts. Hey, Bernie had a great run and a career he would probably change nothing about, if he could. Playing Centerfield for the New York Yankees is about as glamorous a role as an athlete can have. Winning a handful of championships in that role provides Bernie with a certain immortality that makes the Hall of Fame almost seem quaint by comparison.

Don Mattingly
Speaking of Yankee immortality, let's talk about Donnie Baseball. Some suggest that the fact that his Yankee teams were lousy made Mattingly seem almost more heroic. He was the one True Yankee out there, fighting the good fight, short-handed, with few quality teammates to help him out. Unlike Bernie, he never went to the postseason. What would have happened if times were different? What if Bernie was one of the few great Yankees of the 1980's? What if Mattingly played the role of Tino Martinez for Joe Torre's World Champions? Would either Hall of Fame case be stronger?

Joe Torre will likely be inducted into the Hall of Fame as a Manager (and player) in the next few years. It'll be interesting to see if Mattingly can follow in his managerial mentor's footsteps by achieving great success managing the newly fully operational, high-powered Dodgers.

Dale Murphy
Nice guy. Great peak in his career. Unfortunately, for Murph, when he started to age, his performance didn't gradually wind down. His career basically jumped off a cliff, while lighting itself on fire. Murphy was well on his way to a Hall of Fame career through his age 31 season, having made 7 All-Star teams, won 2 MVP awards, belted 310 home runs, and had a 132 OPS+, while playing stellar defense. After that, he played six more years, hitting just 88 more HR's with a paltry .307 on-base percentage.

Barry Bonds
His numbers scream Hall of Fame. Even his number before he, allegedly, started doping in 1999 are worthy of the Hall of Fame. Yes, Ty Cobb was a racist jerk - Cap Anson, too. The Hall of Fame has other cheaters and degenerates, but that doesn't mean prior mistakes must be duplicated, does it?

In this case, I'm actually not saying that I'm right and disagreements are wrong. There really is no right or wrong of what a Hall of Fame is, or should, be. We all have a different value system. Some value RBI, Wins, and Saves, while others may lean towards Wins Above Replacement, wOBA, and xFIP. Maybe the character clause is important to you and means something different than it does to anyone else.

My only point is that the Hall of Fame is not a right that any successful player can demand. It's not even a privilege. It is an honor. If given an opportunity to choose if we should honor Barry Bonds or not, I will always choose the negative.

Roger Clemens
The same goes for Clemens. What's worse, for me, than the cheating with these guys is the lying. The smug attitudes of deny, deny, deny, deny, until people don't even want to talk about it anymore is the worst.

Sammy Sosa
I'm a Cubs fan, who for a while in the early 2000's would give Sammy Sosa standing ovations before his at bats at Wrigley Field. Why not? He was the most prodigious home run hitter we had ever seen. Topping 60 HR's three times, and leading his league in homers two other times.

The problems I have voting for Sosa are multiple. First, he was kind of a one-trick pony. While he was fast and had a strong arm, he never was able to harness those talents to be a good base runner or defender. He struck out a ton and for a while, failed to hit curve balls like Pedro Serrano.

Most sadly, he was also a liar. He probably lied about his corked bat being only for batting practice, but for the sake of brevity, let's give him a pass on that one. What upset me the most was when he went to Congress and claimed to need an interpreter. Sure, his English may never have been much better than Scottie Pippen's but after years of Sammy telling my to drink Pepsi, I don't need him to go to Capitol Hill and say he no speakee Eeenglish.

Rafael Palmeiro
Aside from his own problems with telling to truth to Congress, Raffy does not have the pure career numbers to be a no doubt Hall of Famer. Times are changing. Although Palmeiro hit the magic numbers of 500 and 3,000 hits, he would be in the Eddie Murray compiler wing of the the Hall. Palmeiro was very rarely in the Top 10 of any offensive categories during any season of his career. Still, being a top 30 hitter for close to 20 years will get you noticed.

Mark McGwire
Big Mac was also less deserving than his 500+ Homerun resume presumes. Yes, he's one of the bet home run hitters of all time. He hit them more frequently than any other player in history, even Babe Ruth. However, McGwire didn't do much more than hit home runs. You know what? Screw McGwire, La Russa, and their whole clan. If McGwire is not here to talk about the past, then he's not getting my "vote" for anything in the past.

We are left with six players, with space on our ballot for each one of them. We will use the space. They all get a "Yes" vote.

Larry Walker
If I like to give Bagwell credit for prodigious power numbers in spite of spending years in the Astrodome, I have to discredit Larry Walker a little for Colorado. It's strange trying to be unbiased, when we're conditioned, as fans, to be passionate. We're taught to pick a side, find favorite players, and support them loyally.

I want both Bagwell and Walker to get in, and it's easy for other fans and actual Hall of Fame voters to fall in an overwhelming number of subconscious personal bias.

As it goes, I'm reminded that I liked giving Andre Dawson credit for the damage to his knees from playing in Montreal. Larry Walker could use some of that bias, too! The injuries that plagues Larry Walker throughout his career probably had something to do with patrolling the concrete outfields of Montreal.

Alan Trammell

To younger readers, Alan Trammell may as well be Casey Stengel.

Trammell suffered by being the 2nd best defensive shortstop in the time of Ozzie Smith and 2nd best offensive shortstop in the time of Cal Ripken. He was the best all around shortstop of his time. With a career that compares well to recently inducted Barry Larkin, Trammell should be a close call during his 15th year on the ballot.

Fred McGriff
We voted for the Crime Dog in the past, and with the influx of talent coming to the ballot, this is probably our last chance to do it again. While McGriff is often viewed as a compiler, who didn't even have the decency to compile 500 home runs, he was actually a star player during a prolonged peak. McGriff, like a few others on this list, was good for 20+ Win Shares per year for over a decade.

Kenny Lofton
Some people have claimed that Tim Raines doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame because if he were in, then Lofton would have a great case to make it, as well. Well, guess what? Kenny Lofton DOES have a great case for the Hall of Fame! He was one of the best leadoff hitters and base runners in history. There are a few things going against Lofton. First, he came up with an Indians team that was loaded with talent, so it was hard to stand out as one of the best in the league. Then, he started getting traded every other year to a new contender. He made the post-season a bunch in this role, which made him more visible to a national audience. What I wonder is if he would have had more Hall of Fame support if a single fanbase viewed him as thier own and propagated for him.

Mike Piazza
The best offensive catcher of all time. He couldn't throw anybody out, but his hittin made up for it. Some think he's a no-doubt steroid user, but there's never been a failed test or a smoking gun. The biggest claim against him is that he was seen with bacne during suspicious times. I'd like to know the truth, but for now, that could have seriously just been a heat rash.

Curt Schilling
As a testament to open-mindedness and the human spirit, I am pleased to vote "Yes" on Curt Schilling. Before looking closer at his numbers, I thought no way this huy was a Hall of Famer. I thought he was a late bloomer ho had a handful of good years i his 30's and lucked out by winning titles with the Big Unit in Arizona and Red Sox Nation in Boston. Boy, was I wrong. Those championships were not something Schilling lucked into. He was a major reason his teams won. Schilling has the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of any starting pitcher since 1900 and an impeccable post-season record, that I initially thought was his only real argument for the Hall of Fame.

In summation, our 2013 Hall of Fame ballot is:

How much for a reenactment?

Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Kenny Lofton
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

***

Some actual Hall of Fame writers have complained that filling out their ballot is no longer fun. Boo hoo. Poor baseball writers of America. So sad.

Surely, the process of voting was more fun when there was less to choose from. A voter could take to time to seriously consider the handful of serious candidates. After making their decision on each one, the voter would still have room on his ballot to give a Hall of Fame vote as a tip of the cap to a favorite player, like Tim Salmon received 5 last year.

A good number of ballots this year have been beneath the 10-name maximum, but as we'll see in 2014, '15, and so on, the number of viable candidates will be so high, that 75% consensus will be difficult for players other than Greg Maddux and Frank Thomas in the near future.

As everyone's sensibilities change in time, and the name of qualified candidates increases, this process will epitomize a royal rumble until ten names stand out.

There's a good chance none of the players on my ballot this season end up being elected. Next year, Tom Glavine probably joins Maddux and Big Frank as first-ballot guys. Maddux and Big Frank, no doubters. If my feelings don't seismically shift next winter, my ballot next season will have at least 13 strong contenders.

Other newcomers of note in 2014 include Luis Gonzalez, Jeff Kent, and Mike Mussina. Starting off with the pitcher, Mussina doesn't have 300 Wins, but he has a slightly higher WAR number on Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and a higher PWARP on Baseball Prospectus. It should be noted that while it's a small difference in Career WAR and PWARP, Mussina did it in 850 fewer innings. I don't believe Jeff Kent or Luis Gonzalez are Hall of Famers, let alone first ballot guys in an environment such as this, but other people will value them enough to vote for them.

I never thought I would be in the Schilling for Hall of Fame camp, until looking closer at his numbers this winter. What if my sensibilities change again, and next winter, I don't care about the ways of Bonds, Clemons, and Sosa. Who knows how long until some of these guys get 75% of the vote.

Crazy. Well, the 2014 talk is for another time. This year, I think Craig Biggio and Jack Morris have a shot, but I don't think anyone will actually get to 75% on this vote. That could lead to less tourism for Cooperstown during next Summer's Hall of Fame Weekend. Imagine the excitement for next Summer's induction ceremony, if it stands with the three current honorees, a player, a pioneer, and an umpire, each of them born over 145 years ago. The player, Deacon White, born 1845, was an actual flat-lander, believing the world was not round. Bring your kids!

A year without the big bucks of tourists from different pockets of the U.S. could be the wake up call that Cooperstown gets to change the voting system. At least in 2 summers, we know that Maddux will get 75% of the vote. I mean, we know that, right?

What would your Hall of Fame ballot look like? Let us know in the comments section. Thanks!

The famed Torco sign on Sheffiled in 1987...

By: Mark Susina via flickr

Sheffield, behind the bleachers, began changing...

By: Mark Susina via flickr

This photo is dated May 26, 2010...

By: Mark Susina via flickr

Getting back to the Torco days...

The next one is a gem from Blue Batting Helmet, but I'm not certain his sleuthing got his to right moment in time...

Is this Steve Trachsel pitching to Deion Sanders?

The writer suggests the name on the scoreboard says Deion Sanders, and the stats beneath his name suggest this is a game between the Cubs and Braves on May 29, 1987.

On the contrary, I believe this game took place in 1994 or 1995. First of all, the league standings flags are divided into three divisions. Second, the three-division format began in 1994. Therefore, it could not have been before '94.

Stay with me now: it seems the final season the Torco sign hung above Wrigley Field was 1995. Crain's Chicago Business, on April 22, 1996, stated that Torco would sublease the sign to Southwest Airlines. The Lawrence Journal World on June 13, 1996, confirms that the Torco sign was indeed gone.

I can't really make out the statistics in the photo online, but if it's indeed Deion Sanders, on the Braves, it would be in April 1994. It looks, to me, like he might be wearing a Reds uniform. If he's on the Reds, it could be 1994 or '95. It doesn't look like he's wearing a San Francisco Giants uniform in this picture  but he did play in Wrigley Field after the Reds traded him to the Giants in '95.

If anyone can shine light on the mystery  please drop us a note in the comments. Thanks!

Moving on...

Cubbie-blue.com shared this beauty not too long ago...

Good times in '94/'95!

The flags, again, are in 3-division formation. So, this was '94 or '95.

If the third baseman pictured is Todd Zeile, it's 1995.

This year's Baseball Writers' Association of America Hall of Fame ballot is the most crowded in over 65 years, when 95 players received votes in 1945.

Before we get to this year's fun, here's a glimps at the 1945 ballot:


The history above, lends me to believe we could see a sort of similar result this year, with no-one receiving the required 75% of the vote for enshrinement. With a maximum of ten players one may vote for, and somewhere between 11 and 15 viable candidates, we may not see 3/4's of the voters agree on anyone.

Like a radio station one of our parents may listen to, this year's ballot has a collection of stars from the 80's, 90's, and today.

In alphabetic order, and without numbers, here are the players on this year's ballot:

Sandy Alomar Jr.

If anyone has a chance to make it this time around, it's Craig Biggio.

Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Barry Bonds
Jeff Cirillo
Royce Clayton
Roger Clemens
Jeff Conine
Steve Finley
Julio Franco
Shawn Green
Roberto Hernandez
Ryan Klesko
Kenny Lofton
Edgar Martinez
Don Mattingly
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Jose Mesa
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy

Schilling's W%, ERA, and K/BB ratio give him an outstanding case for Cooperstown.

Rafael Palmeiro
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Reggie Sanders
Curt Schilling
Aaron Sele
Lee Smith
Sammy Sosa
Mike Stanton
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Todd Walker
David Wells
Rondell White
Bernie Williams
Woody Williams

I've been looking forward to this ballot for so long, that I envisioned writing up an obscenely long post for why we should or should not vote for each player on the list. Instead, we are going to try to keep this as short as possible, while hopefully providing one or two facts and opinions you may not find elsewhere. Over the past several weeks, however, I've noticed that you, dear reader, have greater choices for earnest Hall of Fame analysis.

Some of the best options include: Buster Olney's blog, Jay Jaffe's Hit and Run, Joe Posnanski's blog, Joe's twitter, or Joe's day job. Of course, we can also check in on any of the 575 writers who actually have a ballot to see how they voted, and why. Darren Viola has been doing an outstanding job of keeping records of writer's ballots as they are posted online. Darren shares his findings on his twitter: @RRepoz.

Barry Larking was a considerate and classy inductee last June.

Last year, we would have voted for Jeff Bagwell, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Tim Raines, Alan Trammell, and Larry Walker. Larkin was elected last year. With this year's ballot being so crowded, there's no guarantee that the other five guys will be on our "ballot" this year.

Let's quickly take a closer look.

The "It's an honor to be on the ballot, but it's a relatively easy No" group includes: Todd Walker, Jose Mesa, Sandy Alomar Jr, Mike Stanton, Jeff Conine, Royce Clayton, Roberto Hernandez, Aaron Sele, Ryan Klesko, Rondell White, Woody Williams, Shawn Green, and Jeff Cirillo.

We are left with 24 on the ballot with room to vote for 10.

A few other players who have a relatively interesting story to tell, but will ultimately fall short of a vote from us include: Lee Smith (478 Saves), Steve Finley (304 HR's, 320 SB's), Reggie Sanders (also over 300 steals an homers, not to mention a 115 OPS+, which is higher than Biggio, Trammell, and Lofton), and Julio Franco, who played until he was 48 and ranks 21st on this ballot by bWAR, between Don Mattingly and Jack Morris.

This leaves us with 20 players for a maximum of 10 votes.

You know what? We're about to get to the more controversial players and have some tough choices to make. This is going to take us a little too long for a "quick" post. Let's get to this in the next day or two...

TO BE CONTINUED...

There are six Starting Pitchers on this year's Hall of Fame ballot:

Jack Morris will likely make it this year.

Sele and Williams drop off the pace pretty early in the discussion. It's surprising how good David Wells looks when compared to Jack Morris, while Morris might be inducted this year and Wells could drop off the ballot.

As we'll see in a few minutes, when looking at Average Game Score over the course of their careers, David Wells does not have a good case. It's even just below Woody Williams.

I'm not the biggest fan in the world of Game Score and would manipulate the formula a little bit out of personal preference, but these discussions are nurtured by different perspectives. There are plenty of places to go online and read Hall of Fame cases for and against certain players. At this brief moment in December, 2012, we'd like to take a look at how these 6 players compare with history, as gauged by Bill James' Game Score.

Baseball-Reference defines Game Score as, "a value created by Bill James that evaluates how good a pitcher's start was.

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (or 3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk."

It basically rewards starting pitchers for strikeouts and going deep into games while liming runs and base runners.

Five Hundred Forty Five (545) players since 1918 have started at least 200 Major League games. There are a few surprises as we look back in time, by average Game Score.


Vaulting his name into any conversations on underrated starting pitchers of the 20th century, Andy Messersmith's name stands out 8th. It seems Messersmith is rarely talked about. When he is mentioned, it's because he was one of Baseball's first free agents 35 years ago, allowing him to sign a 3yr/$1M contract with the Atlanta Braves.

J.R. Richard's standing in 6th place speaks to his wild and dominant peak, also about 35 years ago. In a four-year span, 1976-79, J.R. Richard averaged 281 innings pitched in 37 starts per season. His career has an interesting curve, looking at his Strikeout Percentage, which was dominant the first three seasons of his career, good the next four, and world class once again the final 3 years.

J.R. Richard Strikeout Percentage

Continuing the list of Average Career Game Score for anyone who started over 200 MLB games since 1918, in continuous search for Hall of Fame perspective...


Our first sighting of active players, as Johan Santana and Cole Hamels make appearances. Hamels should still have another year or two of prime performance, at least. Santana, on the other hand, probably hopes to settle in to a role of steady above-average production, with occasional feats of brilliance, on those days his change-up can't miss.

Curt Schilling supporters should be pretty jazzed about their guy placing 12th. The Hall of Fame case for Curt Schilling relies heavily on his outstanding record in the postseason: In 19 career postseason appearances (all starts), he has had 3 "bad" starts. His teams have a 14-5 record in his starts, to go along with his 11-2 record and 2.23 ERA.

To put it another way, that actually fits the context of this discussion, Schilling's Postseason Average Game Score was 64, which would put him at the top of the list we are looking through right now, as Sandy Koufax leads way with a 62.8 Avg GmSc.

Embarrassingly, I cannot say that I've ever heard of Bob Veale or Jim Maloney. At least, with recent research I did become aware of Mario Soto's acute dominance in the early 80's.

"Lefty" was a No-Doubt HoF'er

Steve Carlton won four pennants and two World Championships during a 24-year career spent primarily with the Cardinals and Phillies, before brief stints with Giants, White Sox, Indians, and Twins.

Longevity cost Seaver a better ranking on this list. His average Game Score after the first 20-seasons of his career was 59, placing him near Roger Clemens.

A bunch of active stud pitcher are in this group, namely Verlander, King Felix, Matt Cain, and Jered Weaver. Ot course, this is a ranked list based on a Career Average Statistic. Like with Seaver, as these players begin to deal with aging and increasing ineffectiveness, their Average Game Scores will presumably fall. We shall see if guys like Fergie Jenkins and Bert Blyleven finish with higher career GmSc's than the active players currently ahead of them.

How about that Sid Fernandez! Talk about getting no respect. Sid Fernandez enters Rodney Dangerfield territory, with only 2 Hall of Fame votes his one year on the ballot.

Moving on...


John Smoltz is a slam dunk Hall of Fame choice because of his brilliance as a starting pitcher, reliever, and postseason performer in both roles.

Roy Halladay has a Hall of Fame discussion for the future, and being in the neighborhood of Warren Spahn helps.

It just dawned on me that we could be here forever if we forget that we are just looking to see where Average Game Score places the six Starting Pitchers on this year's Hall of Fame ballot, among all players who've started at least 200 games since the deadball era.

We saw that Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling ranked 10th and 12th on this list, respectively. Looking at the Top 40 highlighted some interesting names, mostly of active players who've begun what could result in Hall of Fame careers.

Still, to get to the next ranked Starting Pitcher on this year's Hall of Fame ballot, we must plummet all the way down to #125 for Jack Morris.


That's a lot of names. Many great ones, such as Maddux, Greinke, and Appier, and other not-so-inspiring guys, like Carlos Zambrano and Ramon Martinez rank higher than Morris.

The Career GmScA for Woody Williams was actually 0.1 points higher than David Wells. To find them in this setting, we need to more than double our list's size, peeking just below Ryan Dempster to the 260's and 270's...


Aaron Sele should be celebrated for playing well enough and long enough to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot. In the context of this discussion, he ranks 400th out of 545...


This road to nowhere basically got us where we started. The only compelling Hall of Fame cases, from Starting Pitchers, on this year's ballots come from Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling. IT's doubtful that either pitcher will get in. Clemens, for being a no-good, dirty, cheating, lying dirt-bag. Schilling for not compiling enough Pitcher Wins, Strikeouts, or friends in the BBWAA, as he is also an ornery type.

Hopefully, we've learned something new along the way. Who knew Andy Messersmith was so good?

If you've made it this far, make sure you reward yourself in some way. You've earned it. Thanks again for reading.