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With no games until this evening, it's as good a time as any to honor the most locked-in players in Baseball.

About 20 years ago, a scout told me the best way to quickly see which players are on top of their game is to look at past 14-days stats, and our Fortnight Awards stubbornly celebrate the debatable, old-school mentality.

I tend to believe that streakiness is a result of random clustering of events by players with otherwise consistent performances. Players may deal with injuries or mechanical issues that cause drastic drops in performance. Conversely, when they smooth out the kinks, the player's performance will noticably improve. This line of discussion can get us dangerously close to the argument of Clutch vs Luck, but the more pertinent question for mid-May is: do players use the in-the-zone feeling to highten their confidence and continue succeeding? Perhaps it's subjective validation, but players and fans can feel it. It's tough to argue with our feelings. We've seen it in other sports. Basketball and golf, especially, have histories littered with stories of players who couldn't miss a shot.



Baseball has one saying that doesn't apply to hoops or golf: Earl Weaver's "Momentum is the next day's starting pitcher".

NL Batter of the Fortnight
Joey Votto, Reds
His .579 OBP makes the choice easy.

Over the past 14 days, the National League players with the 6 highest Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) come from two sets of teammates:

NL Top 10 wOBA (Past 2 weeks)
Joey Votto, Reds: .537
Jay Bruce, Reds: .477
Marco Scutaro, Giants .475
Jean Segura, Brewers .471
Brandon Belt, Giants .463
Norichika Aoki, Brewers .455
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies .450
Justin Turner, Mets .442
Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks .432
Jedd Gyorko, Padres .421

Al Bello/Getty Images

In addition to the Reds' dominance in this metric, Votto and Shin-Soo Choo were both Top 5 in On-Base Percentage the past two weeks. The only wonder to the Reds going 10-2 in that time was how they lost 2 games in Philadelphia while sweeping the Brewers, Marlins, and Mets.

Most of Jay Bruce's production this season season has come in the past two and a half weeks. He's hit 5 of his 6 home runs this year in the past 15 days. If we would have given the awards yesterday, Jay Bruce would have won. Two days ago, it would have been Paul Goldschmidt. This morning, it looks like Joey Votto, and it's not close. The way he's been going, another MVP award is looking more and more unavoidable.

Honorable Mention: Bruce, Goldschmidt, Brandon Belt, Scutaro, Aoki, and Matt Carpenter

NL Pitcher of the Fortnight
Shelby Miller, Cardinals
Unlike the NL batter award, this is a really difficult choice. We may as well start with the Reds. A couple of Reds and a Diamondback, Mike Leake, Bronson Arroyo, and Brandon McCarthy, were the only NL pitchers with 0.00 ERA's (min 10 ip).

AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi

Francisco Liriano remarkably lead the league in Strikeouts, FIP, K/9, and tied Shelby Miller in K%. Liriano did earn a "Win" in all three of his starts, but what hurts his cause is that he only pitched 18 innings. Of course, we are screaming SMALL SAMPLE SIZE, but for the record, over the past 2 weeks: Shelby Miller lead the league in tERA and SIERA.

Cliff Lee had a 0.78 ERA while throwing the most innings the past two weeks (23).

The aforementioned McCarthy, Miller, Lee, and Adam Wainwright threw shutouts.

Patrick Corbin had a 0.56 ERA and league leading .118 Opponents Batting Average.

Homer Bailey* had a league leading 13:1 K:BB ratio.

*Another Red! That's 3 Reds hitters and 3 Reds pitchers mentioned so far this morning.

Clayton Kershaw ranked Top 5 in just about everything.

Our tough choice came down the Cardinals rookie phenom. Besides the peripheral stats mentioned above, Miller's perfect performance of 27-up, 27-down after a bloop single seals the deal.

Honorable Mention: Lee, Liriano, Corbin, Kershaw, McCarthy

AL Batter of the Fortnight
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

Photo by Duane Burleson

Like the great pitching performances of the National League, the AL showcased its lumber the past two weeks.

Once again, baseball fans are being treated to the juxtaposition of two all-time great performers, Cabrera and Mike Trout. The world class hitting of Miguel Cabrera is peaking when we thought we had seen it all. The man won the Triple Crown, for crying out loud, last year. Yet, his numbers are way ahead of his pace from a year ago.

Miguel Cabrera, through May 23rd
Last year: .306 BA, 8 HR, 34 RBI
This year: .391 BA, 14 HR, 55 RBI

Miguel Cabrera hit 8 home runs in the past 14 days.

Meanwhile, Mike Trout is doing his best Bo Jackson impression, hitting for tremendous power with blazing speed. The Angels had an off day on Monday. Tuesday night, Mike Trout hit for the cycle. On Wednesday, he went 2-for-4. Last night, he went 2-for-4 again and hit a home run to a land far in Kansas City's deep Center Field that people hadn't seen reached since Bo.

Toronto has had a rough go at it so far this year, but there is a good story with the healthy return of Jose Bautista. Over the past two weeks, he lead the AL with a .521 OBP. Unlike Joey Votto's case in the NL, Miguel Cabrera was not too far behind with a .492 mark and a lot more power.

Honorable Mention: Trout, Bautista, Alex Gordon, Joe Mauer and Chris Davis

AL Pitcher of the Fortnight
Chris Sale, White Sox

Chris Sale is looking up. AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

Sale and Justin Masterson started two games in the past 14 days and have 0.00 ERA's. The competition for this award fell off rather quickly, as other top performers didn't really come close to matching Sale in run prevention or strikeouts.

Chris Sale's Opponents' Batting Average the past 2-weeks is a comical .075. Word out of the south side is that Chris Sale will likely miss one start, no more, as the team tries to mix in regular rest for their starters. Hoepfully that's the case. Chris Sale is a great young pitcher, but it always seems like his skinny arm is skating on thin ice.

Let's not set off any alarms, but the worst ERA in that span is Justin Verlander's 11.37. His 3.42 xFIP and 3.49 SIERA tell a more favorable story.

Honorable Mention: Masterson, Luis Mendoza, Felix Hernandez and Clay Buchholz

Thanks for reading. As always, comments are suggested.

Matt Harvey was unstoppable tonight. The White Sox never had a chance against him. As just about anyone reading this knows, Harvey went 9 innings, facing 28 batters, retiring 27.


After 20-straight outs, Alex Rios ran out a measly infield single.


Unfortunately for fans of the Mets and pitcher wins, Matt Harvey earned a no-decision in the 10-inning, 1-0 Mets victory. The offense couldn't scrape together a run in nine innings against Hector Santiago, Matt Thornton, or the first inning of Nate Jones. Santiago, a local kid from Newark pitching in Flushing, extended himself to 111 pitches. After spending most of the season in the bullpen, his previous season high was 92 pitches. Santiago struck out 8, while giving up just 4 hits and 2 walks, in 7 innings.

***

Scott Diamond, of the Minnesota Twins, had a less impressive but notable outing in Fenway Park, going 7 innings, no runs, no walks, and 3 hits (all singles). He outdueled Ryan Dempster in the Twins' 6-1 victory. Dempster and the Red Sox bullpen imploded in the 8th inning, tripling a 2-run deficit.

***

Andrew McCutchen raised his OPS fifty points, from .738 to .788, by going 4-for-4 in the Pirates 4-1 win over the visiting Mariners.

Jason Grilli saved his 13 game in 13 chances. This season, he has pitched 14 innings, has given up 7 hits, 1 run, walked 4, and struck out 23. Grilli is legit. Since the start of last season, his strikeout numbers have him in elite company:

2012-13 MLB K% Leaders (min 10 ip)
Craig Kimbrel 48.4%

Grilli looks like an All-Star (Joe Sargent/Getty Images)

Aroldis Chapman 42.9%
Jason Grilli 37.6%
Kenley Jansen 37.5%

***

In another pitchers' 1-0 duel, the Cleveland Indians and Zach McAllister defeated Tommy Milone and the Oakland A's. McAllister almost made it out of the eighth, but after a 2-out single by John Jaso, manager Terry Francona called on Rich Hill. Bob Melvin tapped Luke Montz to pinch hit for left-handed Seth Smith, but he flied out.

In the 9th, Chris Perez gave up a 1-out single to Yoenis Cespedes, but Yan Gomes gunned him down attempting to steal second. The last batter of the game, Brandon Moss, struck out swinging.

***

Alex Gordon tied the game 3-3 in the 7th inning, with his 4th home run of the season, but the Orioles beat the Royals behind Matt Wieters's 2 doubles and 3 RBI.

***

Photo: here

The Braves closer, Craig Kimbrel, surprisingly blew a 9th inning save by giving up back-to-back 2-out home runs. After Jack Hannahan and Corky Miller struck out, Devin Mesoraco tied the game with a pinch-hit home run, and Shin-Soo Choo won the game for the hometown Reds with his 2nd home run of the night.

***

The most sobering split-second of the night occured between Desmond Jennings's bat and J.A. Happ's head. The sound of the impact off Happ's head was disturbingly loud. Thankfully, Happ appeared to be speaking and waved his hand to the crowd as the paramedics carried him off the field. We wish Happ a speedy recovery.

In terms of the ballgame, Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta basically blew it for the hometown Rays The Blue Jays bullpen and defense were outstanding. In 7 and 2/3 innings, Brad Lincoln, Adam Loup, Steve Delabar, and Casey Janssen gave up no runs, 5 hits, and 2 walks, while only striking out 3 batters. Tampa's team batting BABIP must have gone down afterwards.

***

Travis Wood of the Cubs continues to pitch way above his pay scale, giving up just one run to the Cardinals over 6 and 2/3 innings. He struck out 8 and only gave up a run on Allen Craig's 2nd inning home run. Lance Lynn also pitched well for the Cardinals. In the 4th inning, he struck out Starlin Castron, Anthony Rizzo, and Luis Valbuena. Unfortunately, for him, between Rizzo and Valbuena he gave up a bloop single to Alfonso Soriano and home run to Nate Schierholtz.

***

Houston may lose over 110 games this year, and are at least two years away from relevance in the standings. On the bright side, their front office is built for success, and the Major League roster has a bunch of likable players. The Astros have been agressive with their 25-man roster, as they showed on Monday:

Updated #Astros roster: OF J.D. Martinez activated from DL, OF J. Paredes recalled, OF T. Crowe has contract purchased from minors ...
— Jason Martinez (@mlbdepthcharts) May 6, 2013

... OF R. Ankiel, OF F. Martinez designated for assignment, IF/OF B. Laird optioned. baseballprospectus.com/article.php?ar… #Astros
— Jason Martinez (@mlbdepthcharts) May 6, 2013

With a tremendous payroll disadvantage and vastly different expectations, the Astos find themselves only 2.5 games behind the Angels. In the 9th inning, with two out and the Astros up by 1, Jose Veras struck out Mike Trout swinging on a 3-2 curveball. Jose Veras now has 3 saves in 5 opportunities.

***

Wily Peralta has now beaten the Dodgers, Cubs and Rangers. Justin Grimm spotted the Brewers 5 runs in the first inning, and Peralta cruised through 6 before giving way to Gorzelanny, Kintzler, and Henderson for an inning a piece. Jim Henderson certainly looks solidified in the Brewers' closer position. He has a deceptive delivery, good velocity on his pitches, and apparant command.

Is it too late for the Rangers to get Robbie Ross into the rotation?

***

The rare Coors Field pitcher's duel ultimately ended in an even rarer Coors Field shutout, as the Rockies blanked the Yankees 2-0. This was the first time either team had shutout the other. The home teams have mostly won throughout their brief interleague history. The last time the Yankees won in Colorado was the time they beat the Rockies 20-10 on June 19, 2002.

Jorge De La Rosa threw the first 6 innings against the Bronx bombers. He's coming back from arm surgery and a difficult rehap, so it's great to see him have this kind of success.

Hiroki Kuroda's lethal error was throwing a 90 mph four-seamer to Carlos Gonzalez in the 6th inning. CarGo turned it into a 2-run line-drive homer.

***

The punchless Marlins were baffled by Eric Stults through 6 1/3 ip, before getting shut down by Dale Thayer, Luke Gregerson, and Anthony Bass. That triumverate from the Padres bullpen closed out the game with a perfectly, retiring the only eight batters they saw.

***

While he didn't get the win, it's nice to see Brandon McCarthy pitch better. Depending on how the flyballs were hit, the ballpark might have had something to do with McCarthy's success, but McCarthy had a healthy 11-to-3 GB-to-FB ratio.

The last-place Dodgers have lost 6 in a row and have the 2nd worst run differential in the National League (-34), which is 56 runs worse than the Diamondbacks and 61 runs worse than the first-place Rockies.

***

Chase Utley hit a home run off Tim Lincecum in the 5th inning, his 7th of the season. If the Phillies don't get into the race, it would be thrilling to see where Utley could get traded. If the Dodgers got back in the race, they'd be interested. Cleveland is a potential suiter, as would be most potential playoff teams.

Thanks for reading! Please join the conversation on social media or in the comments section below.

One month into the season, let's check out the early returns from box offices around the league. Similar to other statistical analysis, we are dealing with a small sample that could potentially skew results, for example, by weather.

Presenting, Baseball-Reference's year-to-year attendance trend chart through April 30, 2013 games.


Most attendance trends are about what we'd expect. The Dodgers and Blue Jays made the splashiest changes since last May, and their fans bought into it before Opening Day. A few surprises include the returns in Boston and Texas.

The Red Sox and Rangers have the best and second best records in baseball, respectively. Yet, they are drawing about 5,000 and 3,000 fewer fans per game than they did at this point last year.

Cleveland's April attendance is not trending too badly year-to-year, but it is the worst in the league. What has the weather been like in Cleveland? How are the 2013 Cleveland Indians underdrawing the Miami Marlins? They're drawing at about the same rate as last season. I haven't been watching much Weather Channel lately; does Cleveland turn into Siberia in April?

The Marlins are outdrawing Cleveland by over 4,300 fans per game. Cleveland's dismal attendance is a terrible business return for investing in Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and others this winter.

Here is Cleveland's attendance in April 2013 home games:


The A's, Royals, and Mariners have essentially the same per game attendance as the shamed Marlins, at about 19,000 per game.

Oakland's attendance continues to underperform their on-field accomplishments. The ballpark remains an issue, but should that be enough to cost Oakland fans the chance to have a Major League team on their side of the Bay?

The Royals look dangerously close to taking over the hearts of Kansas City once again, as their .583 winning percentage is the 8th best in Baseball. They are just a half game behind the first-place Tigers. Sabermetrically inclined Royals fans would be pleased to know their 14-10 record matches up perfectly with their Pythagorian Win-Loss. PECOTA playoff odds on Baseball Prospectus currently gives them a 23% chance to make the postseason, which is better than Baltimore's and three times as high as Toronto's.

In Seattle, the retractable roof eliminates most weather issues that could affect attendance, and we know it has to do with disappointing results over the past few years. Mariners fans are calling for an allegorical guillotine for Jack Z and the scapegoats.

The Mariners are 12-17, with an offense taking them nowhere. Remember when we thought the Mariners offense was bad last season, as they averaged an AL-worst 3.8 runs scored per game? This year, they're scoring 3.3 runs per game.

Dustin Ackley's 56% GB% is driving fans mad. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

Red Sox pitchers have the highest K% and BB% in the American League. Neither statistic is particularly surprising, but the duality of the records is rare. Since 1990, it has happened twice, both by the Cubs:

In their doomed 2003 season, the Cubs lead the NL with a 22.6% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. They also lead both leagues with a 19.6% K% and 10.8% BB% in 2006.

The year, the Red Sox have 26.7% strikeout and 10.1% walk rates.

Andrew Miller gets lots of K's and BB's

***

Switching to team hitting stats, Cubs batters have the best Extra Base Hit percentage in the National League (8.8%, NL Avg. 7.3%).

One of the reasons the 2013 Cubs struggle to score runs is their 5.9% walk rate, the lowest in both leagues. Only one Cub has double digit walks this year, Anthony Rizzo has 11. Even Justin Smoak has more than a dozen walks this year.

Anthony Rizzo is a perennial silver lining.

***

Salvador Perez has an uncharacteristically extreme KK/B ratio. Last season in 305 plate appearances, Salvy Perez struck out 27 times. This year, he already has 18 K's. Perez's 20.2% K-rate equals the league average but is almost twice as high as his career average.

2011: 2.86 K/BB (2.23 AL Avg.)
2012: 2.25 K/BB (2.41 AL Avg.)
2013: 18.00 K/BB (2.43 AL Avg.)

On the positive side, as Chad Young points out, Salvador Perez has seen the fifth biggest gain in average fly ball distance in baseball.

Player | 2013 Distance | 2012 Distance | delta
Dexter Fowler 342.1 - 278.8 = 63.2 feet
Todd Frazier 330.7 - 280 = 50.7 feet
Todd Helton 333.6 - 283.5 = 50.1 feet
Colby Rasmus 319 - 273.5 = 45.5 feet
Salvador Perez 330.6 - 284.5 = 44.1 feet

Read Chad's piece on Fangraphs here.

Salvy Perez has enough youth and tools to improve.

Red Sox players' description of Salvador Perez:"The Beast." Majority opinion:no AL catcher with better hands or arm. Star.

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) April 23, 2013

A couple of weeks before getting traded from Oakland to Houston, Travis Blackley set off his first Vine.

It was a simple film, six stages of his iced coffee.

In other clips, Blackley shares candid moments with his A's teammates, which can be seen on the Vine app. For those without an iPhone, unfortunately, we can only share one of Blackley's Vines:



Josh Reddick has unprotected a few of his six-second stories. In the first one, he boasts of a friend's game with the ladies:



Reddick's personality comes out better here (do not attempt):



In Reddick's latest embeddable Vine, we have a Blackley sighting:



The entertainment value of ballplayers' Vines will be erratic, at best, but we're all for more access and candidness. The audio and video of Vine is breaking down walls, like Talkies did in Old Hollywood.

What other ballplayers are on Vine? Please share your favorites in the comments section.

For those with an iPhone, Vine is available here: https://get.vine.co

Penguins visited the Tampa Bay Rays' clubhouse today, reinforcing the fact that Joe Maddon is a progressive thinker. FWIW, I wouldn't leave Kyle Farnsworth alone with one of those things. Go Rays!

I checked with Elias. Cliff is the first penguin ever to sit in the chair of a @mlb manager. #MaddonsMenagerie twitter.com/HallerDave/sta…

— Dave Haller (@HallerDave) April 24, 2013

More than half of today's games are matinees, including a couple of 12:35 ET starts in Baltimore and Cincinnati. So, we don't have all afternoon to craft a comprehensive This Moment in Baseball post. Instead, let's run down both leagues with one note on each team.


Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Last night, Rob Neyer made a point about Arte Moreno's club that means very little on the field but should not be forgotten...

I feel like we've gotten too used to Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and really should start making fun of that again.
— robneyer (@robneyer) April 24, 2013

Please note, just about every number in this post is dripping with Small Sample Size warnings. Case in point: Albert Pujols is in danger of injuring his foot beyond the point where he can play through the pain. However, on the bright side, he has raised his walk rate to the level it was at during his prime:

Albert Pujols BB%
2009: 16.4%
2010: 14.7%
2011: 9.4%
2012: 7.8%
2013: 15.9%

Houston Astros
Jose Altuve leads all of Baseball with 30 hits (in 20 games).

Oakland A's
In 4 starts, Bartolo Colon is 3-0 with a complete game shutout to his name. He's faced 99 batters and walked only 1.

Toronto Blue Jays
Easily the most disappointing team of this young season is Toronto's 8-13 club. Much of their faltering coincides with the fact that J.A. Happ has been their most successful starting pitcher.

Blue Jays Starting Pitchers

Atlanta Braves
The Braves bullpen just won't quit. Even guys we don't expect to dominate are doing just that. Craig Kimbrel, Cory Gearrin, and Anthony Varvaro have combined to throw 27.6 scoreless innings.

Milwaukee Brewers
This month, Ryan Braun has shown tendencies to become more of a three true outcome batter, like Adam Dunn. So far, Braun has career highs in BB% (15.9%, career: 8.1%), K% (31.9%, career: 18.1%), as well as SLG% and ISO, powered by his 6 early home runs.

St. Louis Cardinals
Carlos Beltran isn't what he used to be, but he leads the team in home runs and is has a .294 batting average.

Chicago Cubs
Julio Borbon has a sparkling 1.000/1.000/1.000 slash line.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Aaron Hill is on the DL with a broken hand, but was off to a nice start. Among batters with at least 40 plate appearances this year, Hill has the highest BB/K ratio by a wide margin:

2013 BB/K ratio (min 40 PA)
Aaron Hill 5.00
Adam Lind 2.75
Coco Crisp 2.17
David Wright 1.60
Nate McLouth 1.57

Los Angeles Dodgers
For all the money the Dodgers new ownership has spent, the team leaders in wRC+ are backup infielder Nick Punto (193) and starting pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu (184).

San Francisco Giants
Matt Cain has not gotten of to the kind of start Giants fans would have wanted, as his 6.59 ERA attests. That being said, we don't think there are too many red flags for his near future. His walk and strikeout rates are still in line with last season's. His strand rate is an unlucky 54.1% (league average around 72%). Lastly, while Cain's average fastball velocity has dropped 0.5 mph since last year, he is throwing more two-seamers, which naturally are not as fast as his four-seamer.

Cleveland Indians
It's hard to believe that the Indians are only 2 games below .500 when considering the terrible starting pitching they've gotten from all their non-Masterson pitchers. The ERA's are terrible, but even worse, look at the HR/K ratio for some of these guys:


To repeat, Brett Myers has a 10:12 HR:K ration. Carlos Carrasco's is 2:2.

Seattle Mariners
This team can't hit and won't be going anywhere this year, but they do have a guy named Bobby LaFromboise in the bullpen. So, they got that going for them, which is nice.

Miami Marlins
Another team going nowhere, the Marlins have no hitting. Giancarlo Stanton's fWAR is -0.5. Their best hitter, so far this season, has been Justin Ruggiano, but he has .286 OBP. On a bright side, Placido Polanco is the toughest man in baseball to strikeout this season, as illustrated by his 3.8% K%.

New York Mets
After Hisashi Iwakuma got knocked around just a little bit last night, Matt Harvey now leads Major League Baseball in opponents' batting average: .108, OBP: .184, and SLG: .161 - hyperbole in numbers.

Washington Nationals
One of the most popular picks to win the National League pennant this year, the Nationals hitters have been terribly slow out of the gate. In fact, they are hitting worse than the Houston Astros:

2013 Batting Slash Lines
Houston Astros: .250/.305/.407
Washington Nationals: .236/.301/.405

Baltimore Orioles
According to Fangraphs batted ball data, Brian Matusz has pitched 7 2/3 innings this year without giving up a line drive.

San Diego Padres
Not as disappointing at the Blue Jays, who were favored by many to win the AL East, the Friars have let fans who considered them a dark horse down. PECOTA already has them rated as less likely to make the playoffs than the Cubs. Only the Twins, Marlins, and Astros have less of a chance to make the postseason than the Padres.

Philadelphia Phillies
The bright spot for the Phighting Phills this year must be that Chase Utley has returned to form. His legs failed him for years, but he is hitting a robust .301/.350/.521 this year, 3 HR's and 3 SB's.

Pittsburgh Pirates
When it's all said and done, make sure we're marked as believers in Starling Marte. He still doesn't draw walks, but his bat speed and power make him a pleasure to watch. His .369 OBP this year will likely go down if he doesn't develop much patience, but hopefully he's young enough to improve a little in that department.

Texas Rangers
The team from Arlington looks like a legit competitor for the AL pennant once again. They have great depth, pitching, power, speed, and on base capabilities. Among their stars, all hail Lance Berkman and his .333/.463/.481 line. If he can extend his career as a world class DH for a couple more years, will we be talking Hall of Fame for Big Puma?

Tampa Bay Rays
Rays Raise your hand if you thought James Loney would hit over .300/.350/.450. He's currently at .313/.377/.479

/crickets

Boston Red Sox
Local media in New England has been praising Mike Napoli and speculating he'll get a big deal in the offseason. Much of that talk appears to be superficial, as he is carrying a 4.6% BB% and 31.0 K%.

Cincinnati Reds
This is from a couple of days ago, but it still illustrated the point...

Joey Votto (.523) and Shin-Soo Choo (.522) are #1 and #2 in MLB in on base percentage.In related news, Brandon Phillips has 21 RBIs.
— David Cameron (@DCameronFG) April 22, 2013

Colorado Rockies
The Blake Street Bombers have reinvented themselves into one of the more pleasant surprises in baseball this year. They have four players slugging over .600, but time will tell if that ragtag pitching staff can keep them in contention.

Kansas City Royals
Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain are playing like two of the best Outfield tandems in baseball, each batting over .340.

Detroit Tigers
The odds on favorite to win the AL pennant, and by extension World Series, Jim Leyland's Tigers are playing quite well. The middle of the lineup is producing, and while their having trouble with the bullpen, Al Albuquerque is not part of the problem. Leyland will figure it out and have his team peaking at the right timw.

Minnesota Twins
Make no mistake, the Twinkies are horrendous this season. Their rebuilding could take a nice step forward if they capitalize on Glen Perkins's success and flip him for prospects.

Chicago White Sox
Sports Illustrated's Jay Jaffe made a great point in this piece, showing how Jeff Keppinger and Adam Dunn are polar opposites in the batter's box, yet they are both failing miserably.

New York Yankees
For all the trouble the Bronx Bombers seem to have gotten themselves into, they are still favored by PECOTA to win the AL East. While the success of aging players like Vernon Wells and Travis Hfner have them over .500, we can expect prolonged slumps from them in the future. Yankee fans will hope players like Granderson and Jeter will be in the lineup to pickup the slack at that time.

Can this guy keep the Yankees playing in October?

As always, your comments below are encouraged. Thanks for reading and enjoy the games!

The importance of batting order construction is a polarizing debate. I tend to lean towards evidence that batting order construction ultimately means very little. The one spot in the lineup that tends to be the most critical to scoring runs is the lead off hitter. Without commercial interruption, please enjoy our 2013 Leadoff Hitter Power Rankings:

Jeff Gross / Getty Images

1. Mike Trout, Angels
Everybody's All American. No surprise here. MGL made an great point on one of Tom Tango's message boards last week, and I find it apropos to bring up here:

Always keep in mind the counterintuitive notion that when a player has a very above average season and you expect his true talent to improve, say, because he is very young, guess what? If he does improve in true talent he will still likely have a much worse season. Mike Trout is a great case in point. We expect his talent to improve and we also expect him to have a much worse season! The public generally does not understand that concept but it is an important one.

2. Alex Gordon, Royals
A late-blooming prospect, Alex Gordon has put it all together for over two calendar years now. The guy who was the #1 overall prospect in the country when Mike Trout was still in high school is enjoying the prime of his career with a .301/.373/.481 batting line since the start of the 2011 season. Gordon's slash rate stats rank 4th/3rd/3rd among this group of 2013 lead off hitters and 19th/15th/33rd among all qualified hitters.

It's not always pretty, but Gordon gets  it done Photo by Jamie Quire / Getty Images

3. Shin-Soo Choo, Reds
Choo leads all 30 leadoff hitters with a .381 On Base Percentage since the start of the 2010 season. He's also proud to have positive values against six different pitch classifications in the same time frame. According to Fangraphs pitch values, for the past 3+ years, Choo has fared well against fastballs, sliders, cutters, changeups, splitters, and knucklers. The only pitch with a negative value for Choo is the curveball.

Shin-Soo Choo is, um, adjusting to Center Field Photo by Dilip Vishwanat / Getty Images

4. Jose Reyes, Blue Jays
Another guy who has succeeded historically, no matter what people have thrown at him is Toronto's star shortstop. Reyes is the second toughest lead off hitter to strikeout. His 8.4 K% from 2010-2013 is lower than everyone's except Juan Pierre's 6.1%.

Reyes is making a home with the #loviste crew Photo by Leon Halip / Getty Images

5. Dexter Fowler, Rockies
Perhaps it's because he's 27 and the power never really came, but Dexter Fowler is one of the more underrated players in the game. Since receiving regular playing time as a 23-year old in 2009, Fowler's On Base Percentage has been...

AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

Dexter Fowler OBP
2009: .363 (.333 Lg. Avg.)
2010: .347 (.325 Lg. Avg.)
2011: .363 (.321 Lg. Avg.)
2012: .389 (.319 Lg. Avg.)

The Rockies center fielder is in his Age-27 season, which is the age of career years for many players. He already has 4 home runs through 9 games this year. Let's all try not to act too surprised if he does something seemingly outrageous like double his career high of 13 HR's.

6. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
Kinsler combines the rare abilities to hit for power, run, and make contact. He has the 3rd highest career slugging percentage among MLB's thirty leadoff hitters.

Career SLG Leaders (2013 Leadoff Hitters)
Mike Trout .526

Look for more power from Iam Kinsler Brandon Wade / Getty Images

Shin-Soo Choo .468
Ian Kinsler .461
Carl Crawford .443
Jacoby Ellsbury .443

Kinsler turns 31 in June. The concern when projecting his next few seasons is that his HR/SB numbers will be closer to 15/15 than 25/25, especially if he moves off second base for Jurickson Profar.

If Kinsler moves to first base or a corner outfield spot, he risks losing all the value he gets from outperforming other second basemen.

7. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
Boston's leadoff hitter is near the top of the ranks in most statistical categories, when comparing lead off hitters performance since the start of the 2010 or 2011 season. However, Ellsbury fell outside of our Top 5 because of he has always been more about batting average and slugging percentage than OBP. Plus, we lean towards the thought that his 2011 season is more outlier than indicative of his true talent.

Future free agent: Jacoby Ellsbury Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

8. Carl Crawford, Dodgers
When not wearing a Red Sox uniform, Carl Crawford has played at a high level. His scorching hot start this season has already produced more Wins Above Replacement than both of his seasons in Boston combined.

Carl Crawford Red Sox WAR (2011-12)
Games Played: 161
Baseball-Reference: 0.6 WAR
Fangraphs: 0.1 WAR

Carl Crawford Dodgers WAR (2013)
Games Played: 8
Baseball-Reference: 0.7 WAR
Fangraphs: 0.7 WAR

This reeks of small sample size, so to expand our vantage point a bit, since the start of the 2009 season, Crawford's numbers fail to impress. His .341 OBP in that time span ranks 17th among 2013's thirty lead off hitters. If we choose to discount the importance of his performance in Boston, attributing poor performance mostly to playing through injuries, we could see Crawford turn in a couple more .300/.355/.470 seasons.

Carl Crawford looks like he has fresh legs Photo by Victor Decolongon/Getty Images

9. Norichika Aoki, Brewers

J. Daniel/Getty Images

No-one was sure what to expect of Aoki in his first season in America last year. With the potential to be a star or a fourth outfielder. His success appears sustainable, as he's shown command of the strike zone with a BB/K rate almost twice the league average.

10. Jon Jay, Cardinals
Jon Jay can wear the "professional hitter" tag proudly, and he's in his prime. I wanted to bump him out of the Top 10, in favor of the Pirates Starling Marte, but the fact is that Marte's ceiling isn't that much higher than Jay's expected performance for the next few seasons.

With a blond mullet and goatie, plus 30 lbs, Jon Jay can resemble Matt Stairs Professional Hitter Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images

11. Starling Marte, Pirates
It's hard to ignore the tantalization of upside, particularly when you compound the effects of a bat speed from a player with a projectable frame. Strong legs and strong hands can take a player a long way.

Strong Hands, by Starling Marte Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

12. Desmond Jennings, Rays
Cutting down the strikeouts would be nice, but so would more power. It's likely that one of those may happen, but not both.

Much is expected of young Desmond Jennings AP Photo/Carlos Osorio

13. Austin Jackson, Tigers
Perhaps we underrate AJ, and we'd love to hear from Tigers fans in the comments section. Unless he starts popping 30+ homers, we'll shy away from his 24.4% strikeout rate.

AP Photo/Carlos Osorio

14. Alejandro De Aza
After the 2009 season, the Florida Marlins chose not to offer De Aza arbitration. In came Kenny Williams of the White Sox to scoop him up off the scrap heap. Since then, Fangraphs computes that he's delivered over 20 million dollars of value to the pale hose. The contrast between his career slash rates from the Marlins to the White Sox is striking:

Alejandro De Aza BA/OBP/SLG
Marlins (2007-09): .232/.279/.311
White Sox (2010-13): .290/.355/.434

Alejandro de Aza is one of the better waiver claims of the past five years. Photo by Brian Kersey/Getty Images

15. Michael Bourn

Bromance is burning on the Cuyahoga Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images

There's not much to say about Michael Bourn. He's okay, I guess, but he's not as good as his agent.

I wanted to put Aaron Hicks here, but he should be demoted by this weekend. Word on the street is that he's made things worse by not hustling while striking out all the time.

The rest...
16. Jose Altuve
17. Angel Pagan
18. Brett Gardner
19. Coco Crisp
20. Denard Span
21. David DeJesus
22. Nate McLouth
23. Gerardo Parra
24. Andrelton Simmons
25. Aaron Hicks
26. Franklin Gutierrez
27. Collin Cowgill
28. Ben Revere
29. Juan Pierre
30. Everth Cabrera

Please add your thoughts in the comments. Thanks!