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It's been a month since our last post. So sad, but necessary. All the Biogenesis and Aroid talk from the past month has pushed me away from the computer. The horribly preachy sportswriting of others, the distraction of a new job, a vacation, and preparing for my fantasy football auction have all sapped the seamhead inspiration out of me. I have about three or four unfinished posts from this hiatus, some of them embarrassingly long and pointless. To spur creativity, let's take this chance to celebrate a three quick points on the remarkable Los Angeles Dodgers.

First, have you seen Yasiel Puig's throw from last night?



The beauty of baseball is often talked about with sweet swings, the angles of the diamond, balls caroming off the outfield walls, or an unforgettable pitcher's motion. For this fan, though, nothing is better than a great throw. It could be that my first "love" moment in the national pastime was watching Andre Dawson uncork laser throws during warmups at Wrigley Field. Bo Jackson, of course, was a sight. Vladimir Guerrero carried the torch after them, along with Ichiro Suzuki. Today, the jaw dropping cannon from right field belongs to Puig. Taking a closer look at the throw from last night is incredible because he doesn't even rotate his arm in a full circle. He simply cocks his arm up and back, like a catcher who's throwing the ball less than half the distance.

AP Photo / Mark J. Terrill

Second, Clayton Kershaw is pitching like a Hall of Famer, a first ballot Hall of Famer. He's 25-years old and has a 1.88 ERA. This will be his 5th consecutive season with an ERA under 2.92. Among qualified starters, only Greg Maddux and a juiced up Roger Clemens have had ERA's lower than 1.88 in the past 25 years. Not only is Clayton Kershaw a decent bet to win the Cy Young Award over Matt Harvey, he's a good bet to win the National League MVP.

Third, the Dodgers' bullpen is another strength. With Kenley Jansen, Paco Rodriguez, and J.P. Howell, they have three pitchers holding opponents to a sub-.200 batting average. Their closer, Jansen has an 87-to-9 strikeout-to-unintentional walk ratio. That's a lethal combination when you're also not giving up hits. Relying primarily on a dangerous Slider/Cutter repertoire, Paco Rodriguez has held opponents to a .147 batting average over 44 1/3 innings this year.

Dodger fans who have actually stayed to the end of their games are enjoying a historical run of success. We're not necessarily going all-in on expecting them to win the postseason crapshoot. The Braves, in particular, have similar success stories, with a young productive lineup, good starting pitching, and another fantastic relief corps.

Here's to enjoying the moment.

The Major League Baseball All-Star break is upon us. It's a good time to take a deep dive into a specific analysis because first-half stats are set for a few days. We'll likely get into something this afternoon that might take us a few days to complete. For now, we intend to point out interesting outliers by looking at the best and worst performers of certain metrics. Loyal readers may find this familiar to an almost identical exercise from last May.

Just like last time, our intention isn't to simply go through stats and list the best and worst. We are looking for something surprising, interesting, or at least mildly amusing.

All stats through July 14, 2013 and exclude non-qualifiers:

Batting...

K%: Norichika Aoki 5%; Chris Carter 36.8%

RBI: Miguel Cabrera 95; Placido Polanco 15

OBI%: Allen Craig 25.4%; Mike Moustakas 5.6%

BB/K: Norichika Aoki 1.50; J.P. Arencibia 0.13

Base Running Runs: Desmond Jennings 5.6; Howard Kendrick -6.3

O-swing%: Marco Scutaro 18.6%; Pablo Sandoval 48.7%

Contact %: Marco Scutaro 95.7%; Pedro Alvarez 64.5%

Double Play%: Domonic Brown 1.5%; Matt Holliday 26.5%

This season, Domonic Brown has come to bat when a double play was possible 66 times. He's hit into just 1 double play.

WPA: Chris Davis 5.16; Mike Moustakas -2.84

OPS: Miguel Cabrera 1.132; B.J. Upton .565

ISO: Chris Davis .402; Elvis Andrus .038

wOBA: Miguel Cabrera .473; Jeff Keppinger and Pete Kozma (tie) .251

TAv: Miguel Cabrera .379; Pete Kozma .209

VORP: Miguel Cabrera 63.0; Jeff Keppinger -8.4

An interesting this about Chris Davis's Isolated Power (ISO) is that he is leading the rest of the field by a lot.

Here are the Top 5 qualified batters by ISO...

Chris Davis .402
Raúl Ibañez .310
Miguel Cabrera .309
Carlos Gonzalez .308
David Ortiz .289

Crush Davis is having a season to remember. Photo credit: http://bit.ly/18YvSLO

***
Pitching...

K/BB: Adam Wainwright 8.67; Jason Marquis 1.11

HR/9: Jhoulys Chacin 0.24; Joe Blanton 1.84

IFFB%: Wade Davis 16.7%; Wade Miley 2.0%

GB%: Trevor Cahill 57.7%; Phil Hughes 29.4%

wFB/C: Matt Harvey 2.13; Joe Blanton -2.86

F-Strike%: Patrick Corbin 70.0%; Matt Moore 51.9%

SwStr%: Yu Darvish 13.3%; Jeremy Guthrie 4.9%

ERA-: Clayton Kershaw 54; Edinson Volquez 155

FIP: Matt Harvey 2.17; Jason Marquis 5.70

xFIP: Matt Harvey 2.70; Jeremy Guthrie 5.07

WPA: Patrick Corbin 3.10; Joe Blanton -3.03

Matt Harvey is worthy of starting the All-Star Game AP Photo/Paul J. Bereswill

Stats from Fangraphs or Baseball Prospectus.

I don't think I've ever done this before. So, I'll get on the soapbox without apology, as I have to vent at the stubborn establishment of baseball media. Put me in the group of those fed up with these statistics that so-and-so is setting a record for most whatever-stat before the All-Star break. Any baseball fan in search for the truth knows this year's All-Star Game is a week later than in year's past. Look at Chris Davis. His 37 home runs are the second most all time before the break, trailing Barry Bonds, who hit 39 in the first half of 2001. Chris Davis has played 95 games this year, 14 more games than Bonds played in the first half of 2001. What's the point of celebrating these worthless "records"?

Aside from this minuscule pet peeve, there is way too much bad information propagated by Mitch Williams, Hawk Harrelson, and other neanderthal, closed-minded good ol' boys. For example, each weekday on a TV show called MLB Now, Brian Kenny is the voice of reason in the face of Harold Reynolds's arguments against proven sabermetric facts. Case in point: on Friday, Reynolds was arguing that Zack Cozart, and his .263 On-Base Percentage, is the best #2 hitter for the Reds' lineup. What's worse is that a majority of fans on social media actually thought he was correct. We won't get into it now, but Harold Reynolds was wrong. The value of "taking pitches" and "productive outs" falls short of the value of actually making fewer outs.

In time, people with an enlightened perspective will reach the masses on mainstream media. I'm not sure how quickly, but eventually it'll get there. Of course, there are wonderful baseball blogs out there, like the brilliant stuff we find at Baseball Think Factory. The problem is that fans need to seek that out, while the mainstream media lags behind. At least there are signs of progress. Jay Jaffe is making mlb.si.com a destination. Rany Jazayerli is on Grantland. Lastly, we'll all be better off when Joe Posnanski gets back from vacation.


It's as if MLB Network executives don't watch their own channel.

We took a look at the trade target for contenders a bit earlier last year, at the start of June. We are only three weeks from this season's non-waiver trade deadline, which gives us a different perspective. Let's see if we can pick out the best players available to team's competing for the pennant.

Non-contending "sellers" in this year's market should be the Marlins, Brewers, Mets, Cubs, and Phillies from the National League and the Astros, Mariners, White Sox, and Twins representing the American League.

The Royals are in an interesting spot. Baseball Prospectus gives them just a 2.3% chance at making the playoffs. On the other hand, Coolstandings gives them an 18.7% chance at making the postseason, slightly higher than the 18.1% odds they give the Yankees. The Royals have a better run differential than the Yankees, but they should sell this season. They don't have enough coveted assets in the high minors to trade for elite talent this year. It seems more and more like the goal for the Royals should be to be a better team next season and beyond. Should we expect them to stand pat and trade no-on of great consequence? That could be their worst fate. Reloading the upper minors with talent, by trading James Shields, would help the 2014+ Royals immensely. At the very least, they have to get something for Ervin Santana, who is a free agent after the season. Luke Hochevar is pitching well in the bullpen, but his high salary could lead him to being non-tendered in the offseason. Flipping him for an decent prospect would help. Greg Holland has been one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in the American League. Next year will be Holland's first arbitration year. With three years of team control ahead of him, Greg Holland would fetch a nice return for the Royals. No fewer than five teams are in the market for a reliever, as Boston, Detroit, Arizona, Washington, and the Dodgers are obvious.

Jose Reyes and the Blue Jays are gonna keep going for it. #LoViste

A good week or two can increase any team's playoff odds exponentially. The Dodgers had less than 5% chance of going to the postseason a few weeks ago but currently have 41.6% odds on Baseball Prospectus and a 21.2% chance from Coolstandings. The odds for the Blue Jays are just 3.9% on B-Pro and 5.9% on Coolstandings. Due to the tight race in the AL East and the Blue Jays' poor performance, health, and luck in the first half, their fans and management are optimistic about the stretch run. If anything, the Blue Jays will look to double down like the Dodgers, acting as buyers this month.

The NL West is positioned for another wild finish. First and last place in the division are separated by just 7 1/2 games. Although the Rockies, Giants, and Padres appear to be on the outside looking in at the moment, the tight standings make it tough for any of those teams to raise the white flag.

So, we've identified five sellers in the National League and five (if we count the Royals) in the American League.

With that in mind, below are the best players for contending teams to consider acquiring...

Starting Pitchers
Cliff Lee, Phillies (owed ~$70M for next 2.5 years)
James Shields, Royals
Matt Garza, Cubs
Ricky Nolasco, Marlins TRADED!
Bud Norris, Astros
Ervin Santana, Royals
Scott Feldman, Cubs TRADED!
Aaron Harang, Mariners
Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
Mike Pelfrey, Twins
Joe Saunders, Mariners
Shaun Marcum, Mets (out for the season)

Relief Pitchers
Greg Holland, Royals
Glen Perkins, Twins
Jesse Crain, White Sox (on DL)
Steve Cishek, Marlins
Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
Matt Thornton, White Sox
James Russell, Cubs
Kevin Gregg, Cubs
Francisco Rodriguez, Brewers
Oliver Perez, Mariners
Luke Hochevar, Royas
John Axford, Brewers
Jose Veras, Astros
LaTroy Hawkins, Mets
Jim Henderson, Brewers
David Aardsma, Mets

... it's getting a little hairy...

Mike Gonzalez, Brewers
Erik Bedard, Astros
Ryan Webb, Marlins
Jon Rauch, Marlins
Chad Qualls, Marlins
Brandon Lyon, Mets

First Basemen/Corner OF/DH
Michael Morse, Mariners
Raul Ibanez, Mariners
Nate Schierholtz, Cubs
Kendrys Morales, Mariners
Justin Morneau, Twins
Scott Hairston, Cubs TRADED!
Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
Carlos Pena, Astros
Delmon Young, Phillies

Centerfielders
Alex Rios, White Sox
Norichika Aoki, Brewers
David DeJesus, Cubs (on DL)
Juan Pierre, Marlins
Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
Ryan Sweeney, Cubs
Dewayne Wise, White Sox
Marlon Byrd, Mets

Middle Infielders
Chase Utley, Phillies
Rickie Weeks, Brewers
Darwin Barney, Cubs
Brendan Ryan, Mariners
Adeiny Hechavarria, Marlins
Omar Quintanilla, Mets

Third Basemen
Aramis Ramirez, Brewers (on DL)
Luis Valbuena, Cubs
Placido Polanco, Marlins
Michael Young, Phillies
Greg Dobbs, Marlins

Catchers
Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers
Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
Ryan Doumit, Twins
Jeff Mathis, Marlins

It looks like there's at least 2 or 3 good players in each positional grouping. What do you think? Did we leave anyone out? Who do you like the most? Did we miss players from any other team that should be selling? Who are the best bets for guys who wont cost so much on the trade market? Please add your thoughts below.

The Baltimore Orioles' Manny Machado turned 21-years old yesterday, while in New York for a weekend series with the Yankees. On Manny Machado's 21st birthday, he received word that he made the American League All Star team. The day after many 21st birthdays is ordinarily a lazy, hazy day filled with rest and recovery after a night of drinking and debauchery. Today, Manny Machado evoked memories of Brooks Robinson.

How many 21st birthdays are spent playing at Yankee Stadium? (Photo by Jim McIsaac / Getty Images; July 6, 2013)

This morning was filled with tense sports watching, with the riveting Breakfast at Wimbledon. I watched the start of the Yankee game, but turned away and missed the Machado play live. A tweet from e-migo Mighty Flynn alerted me of Machado's a nice throw.

LOL. No. RT @Shakabrodie: Funny thing about everyone going nuts over Machado's throw is that @BringerOfRain20 has done that 3 times this yr.
— It's a long season. (@mighty_flynn) July 7, 2013

This tweet, from Venezuelan baseball scribe Efrain Zavarce provided the link to the video below...

La jugada de Manny Machado que hoy ha hecho recordar en Yankee Stadium a Brooks Robinson (http://t.co/LuvHZ3OH1j): http://t.co/OhG0ovc5WH
— Efraín Zavarce (@EfrainZavarce) July 7, 2013

Hopefully, this video can remain active for a while. Enjoy...

The Chicago Cubs had a banner day retooling their farm system. In a few years, when the Cubs are looking good and have a surplus of power arms in the organization, we can look back on July 2, 2013.


The international signing period opened today, and the Cubs snagged a few inspiring prospects, including shortstop Gleyber Torres, the #2 international prospect according Baseball America.

In Caracas, Torres had an impromptu party and media session in Caracas this evening. Lider was there, took some great pictures, and shared this video (en Español)



In the video, Torres basically just says that he needs to avoid any sense of stardom and continue to work hard every day so that, hopefully, he'll be in position to help the club in four or five years.



Ben Badler at Baseball America provided a comp of Freddy Sanchez for Gleyber Torres. So did John Arguello over at Cubs Den. The Cubs Den piece is truly outstanding. If you haven't read it yet, stop reading this and read it now.

Cubs Den has video of Gleyber Torres actually playing baseball. I won't post it here because the Cubs Den piece is so good, you have to check it out for yourself: click here.

The article includes a comprehensive look at every player the Cubs acquired or lost today through trades and international signings. Cub fans should be excited about the acquisitions of Jake Arrieta and, to a lesser extent, Pedro Strop.

Other great parts of the Cubs Den post are the scouting videos for Jefferson Mejia and Erling Moreno, a couple of very exciting international pitchers the Cubs just signed. Both pitchers have power arms and good change-ups. This has been a trend with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer acquisitions.

It makes sense that there is less damage on young arms that haven't thrown breaking pitches. Over twenty years ago, when I played baseball as a tween, I heard talk that young pitchers shouldn't throw breaking balls until they were 16 or 17 years old. If the pitcher threw a strict, overhand curve, it could be okay, but any type of slider or slurve was completely out of the question. At the time, talk that a kid couldn't throw a curve ball until 17-years of age would be classified somewhere between radical and progressive. Now, it seems downright prophetic as top front offices are suspected of valuing pitchers with that track record.

The Dodgers traded for exiled Cubs closer Carlos Marmol this morning, sending Matt Guerrier to Chicago. Today is a somber day for Cubs' fans. The team DFA'd Marmol a few days ago, but many expected him to simply end up in Iowa because no-one would claim him on waivers. No-one claimed Marmol's massive contract, but the Dodgers traded for him and cash before he had any chance at rebuilding his value in Triple-A.

Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Carlos Marmol was an ineffective starter and low leverage reliever in his rookie season of 2006. He was a converted position player just trying to figure this whole pitching thing out. With the aid of a low-to-mid 90's fastball and one of the best sliders in baseball history, Carlos Marmol was a lightning bolt out of the Cubs bullpen for the next four seasons.

In 2010, his first full season as Cubs closer, Carlos Marmol struck out 42% of the batters he faced. People seem to forget he had four really good season; the lows have been just that low. Carlos Marmol always struggled with control. For a while, it worked to his advantage, as batters couldn't get comfortable in the box. In time, Major League hitters realized they only needed to be comfortable enough to not swing. Cubs fans suffered as Marmol morphed into the wildest pitcher in baseball.

Since the start of the 2011 season (over 2.5 seasons), Carlos Marmol walked almost 1 out of every 6 batters he faced, achieving the highest walk rate in the league* at 16.2%.

*minimum 100 innings pitched

#Dodgers have identified mechanical flaws in Marmol's delivery. Colletti confident they can fix him the way they did League last year.
— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) July 2, 2013

What does Ned Colleti mean when he says that they fixed League?

Brandon League is not flawless. I don't want to nitpick League's peripheral stats, just point out one extreme fluctuation.

Since joining the Dodgers, Brandon League's Inherited Runners Scored have gone from one extreme to the next...

Brandon League Inherited Runners Scored

Last year for the Dodgers, Brandon League inherited six runners. None scored. This year, he's inherited five. They've all scored.

— Bobby Aguilera (@BobbyAguilera) July 2, 2013

This is our ridiculous stat of the moment. It's a tiny sample and doesn't mean anything. I'm just finding it odd that Ned Colletti would point at Brandon League as a success story.

On the bright side for the Dodgers, Carlos Marmol's diminished strikeout rate since the start of 2011 still ranks in the top 20 among pitchers with at least 100 IP. His 28.9% strikeout rate places him 19th, between Vinnie Pestano and Tyler Clippard, and the Dodgers couldn't have traded Matt Guerrier for anyone like Pestano or Clippard.

The Dodgers are the most exciting team in baseball, and it's not just because of Yasiel Puig. With the revenue pouring in, and projected revenues looking even better, the Dodgers have no problem supersaturating their system with high-priced stars and other team's mistakes. They may as well go ahead and get Jonathan Papelbon and Jonathan Lucroy while they're at it.

A month ago, Matt Moore was 8-0 with a 2.21 ERA and looked like a good bet to start the All Star Game. He has arguably been the worst pitcher in the American League since then. It would be a shame if Matt Moore never becomes as good as we expected.

The young left-handed Rays starting pitcher has been one of our favorite prospects for the past 3+ years. When we did our "24 Under 24" column 18-months ago, we had Moore ranked third, just ahead of Mike Trout, behind Kershaw and Strasburg. Because Matt Moore has 10 Wins and a decent 3.95 ERA, the difficulties Matt Moore has been going through in June can be easily overlooked. His monthly splits are an eyesore...

Matt Moore by 2013 Month
April: .122 Opponents Batting Average / 1.13 ERA
May: .232 Opponents Batting Average / 3.30 ERA
June: .337 Opponents Batting Average / 8.39 ERA

Are Matt Moore's recent struggles a bump in the road, or regression towards a more realistic measure of his true talent?

Photo by Chris O'Meara / AP Photo

As expected by the April splits, this season Matt Moore came out gangbusters. He started out 8-0 after 9 starts, with the Rays winning all nine games. His eleventh start was limited to one perfect inning in Cleveland, before a lengthy rain delay ended his night. Coincidentally, it was his last start in May and ended the fantastic start to his season.

Matt Moore (Starts 1-11, April/May 2013)
Opponents' BA/OBP/SLG: .178/.274/.324

Matt Moore (Starts 12-16, June 2013)
Opponents' BA/OBP/SLG: .337/.438/.485

To put those dramatic numbers into perspective, opponents in Matt Moore's first 11 starts were similar to J.R. Towles, while opponents in June have been better than the career numbers of Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, and Rod Carew - all three made the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.

What can we learn from Moore's (more) advanced peripheral stats? His average fastball velocity has dropped 2 mph since last year, from 94.4 to 92.4. A loss in velocity can be a harbinger of injuries, but is a 2 mph difference in this small of a sample size significant?

Matt Moore's walk and strikeout rates haven't deteriorated completely, but they're both moving in the wrong direction:

Matt Moore 2012: 10.7 BB%, 23.1 K%
Matt Moore 2013: 12.6 BB%, 21.8 K%

That 12.6 BB%, as well as his 4.98 BB/9 is the worst among American League qualified starting pitchers. Only Jason Marquis, in the NL, has worse numbers.

Other issues arise in Matt Moore's control, plate discipline, and contact numbers (stats per Fangraphs). Last season, Moore threw a first-pitch strike to 60.1% of the batters he faced. This year, it's been just 51.8%. The Fangraphs plate disciple numbers linked above say opponents are making contact with fewer pitches outside of the strike zone (60% last year, 67% this year). Fangraphs' Pitch F/X numbers say that opponents' outside contact percentage is about the same as last year, but both systems agree that opponents are making more contact inside of the strike zone (81% to 88%). League-average is about 87%. Overall, Matt Moore is getting fewer swinging strikes: 12% SwStr% last year, compared with a league-average 9% so far in 2013.

Photo by J. Meric / Getty Images

The aggregate of Matt Moore's 2013 Pitch F/X and Plate Discipline metrics are basically league average. MLB league average players are valuable. By definition, they are above replacement level. Non-prospects who become league average players are extremely valuable.

The problem is that Matt Moore was supposed to be much better than this. He was supposed to measure up with Stephen Strasburg, David Price, and other elite pitchers in the game. Let's take a quick digression to realize that "supposed to..." is a dangerous turn of phrase. In this game, nothing is promised.

Signs, unfortunately, point at Matt Moore being less productive in the second half of this season than he's been up to this point. Matt Moore's 4.57 xFIP ranks 91st out of 97 qualified starting pitchers.