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85% Available All-Stars

In Matthew Berry’s column this past Thursday, he lists (in his words): “The first non-pitchers that I would pick up for each position that are available in at least 85 percent of leagues.” I thought it would be a good idea to check the player pool and see if my opinions differ.

The idea is not very different from my 20 under 20% column from last week, but this time we’re looking at it by position.

First, Mister Berry’s list…
85% Available All-Stars
1. Chris Iannetta, C, Rockies (10%)
2. Casey Kotchman, 1b, Mariners (1.4%)
3. Sean Rodriguez, 2b, Rays (7.9%)
4. Ian Desmond, SS, Nationals (4%)
5. Troy Glaus, 3b, Braves (11.8%)
6. Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers (14.8%)
7. Austin Jackson, OF, Tigers (13.6%)
8. Skip Schumaker, 2b/OF, Cards (8.1%)
9. Clint Barmes, 2b, Rockies (9.6%)
10. Jhonny Peralta, SS/3b, Indians (13.8%)

Okay well, his list is a little messed up because it’s not clear what the “positions” are after #7. He chose, for some reason, to exclude pitchers. I’ll include one Starting Pitcher and one Relief Pitcher, and that will get us a nice and easy 10 positions.

Even though I prefer Sportsline data, I am using ESPN league numbers for consistency.

C: Jeff Clement, Pirates (2.2%)
85% Available All-StarsHe’s playing 1st base, so his body won’t wear down like a real catcher. He’s been an excellent hitter at every level, so I expect him to outperform most catchers.

1b: Gaby Sanchez, Marlins (3.1%)
Kotchman is an intriguing option as the #3 hitter for the Mariners, but he is not exactly expected to improve much or even approach 20 homeruns. I’ll take the chance Gaby shows more power.

2b: Chris Getz, Royals (1.6%)
Speed + opportunity = steals

SS: Jhonny Peralta, Indians (13.4%)
He’s got power and slid over to 3rd base, which could make him even stronger.

3b: Brandon Wood, Angels (4.4%)
I’m beginning to lose patience with Brandon Wood, but considering he’s still on my own team, he should be on this list. I’m not about to drop him for Scott Rolen.

85% Available All-StarsOF: Mike Cameron, Red Sox (12.3%)
He’s one of those freaky athletes who’s body doesn’t age at the same rate as everyone else. I guess he could also be on HGH, but anyway, he’s 37 years old and arguably still the best athlete on his team.

OF: Luke Scott, Orioles (2.4%)
There is a really creepy Luke Scott promo commercial on local Orioles broadcasts. He is also a good source of cheap power.

OF: Michael Brantley, Indians (0.9%)
Only zero-point-nine percent owned is crazy low for Michael Brantley. He’s not just one-dimensional for speed. He won’t hit a lot of homeruns, but he is a decent hitter.

SP: Gio Gonzalez, A’s (0.7%)
He looked in control last night in Anaheim. Get on the bandwagon, plenty of seats available!

RP: Matt Thornton, White Sox (7.0%)
Bobby Jenks could lose his job, or at the very least visit the DL once or twice this year. Even if he doesn’t, Thornton will lower your team ERA & WHIP (slightly), while adding a few strikeouts each week.

Oh Man, Sorry Sammy G!!

Less than 24-hours after taking the early season lead as our 2010 Lester "The Molester" Lancaster Award Winner, Sammy Gervacio is going on the 15-day DL with posterior rotator cuff starin in his throwing shoulder, according to Bernardo Fallas of the Houston Chronicle. That's really unfortunate.

Who's going to win the blog award for best non-closing reliever this season? So far, we'll be keeping an eye on...

Sammy Gervacio, Astros
Oh Man, Sorry Sammy G!!Neftali Feliz, Rangers
Daniel Bard, Red Sox
Matt Thornton, White Sox
Henry Rodriguez, Athletics
Esmailin Caridad, Cubs
Jennry Mejia, Mets
Brian Bruney, Nationals
Blaine Boyer, Diamondbacks

Fans, please nominate anyone you can think of in the comments section, after this GIANT picture of Esmailin Caridad in Arizona.


Oh Man, Sorry Sammy G!!

New Favorite Non-Closer

Warning notice: I'm sorry. This post should only interesting to me and, maybe, longtime friends. Proceed with caution...

For some reason, I've always been a fan of flame-throwing relief pitchers who don't get the glory of closing out games. Often times, they are closers-in-waiting, like when Mariano Rivera pitched the 8th innings to set up for John Wetteland. In my lifetime, I've had candid appreciation for underrated relievers, starting with Les Lancaster.

In fact, if my "favorite non-closer reliever" was something of a reigning-championship situation, the lineage would go something like this...

New Favorite Non-Closer
1989: Les Lancaster, Cubs
1990: Norm Charlton, Reds
1991: Randy Myers, Reds
1992: Denny Neagle, Pirates
1993: Xavier Hernandez, Astros
1994: Mel Rojas, Expos
1995: Pedro Borbon, Braves
1996: Mariano Rivera, Yankees
1997: Armando Benitez, Orioles
1998: Terry Adams, Cubs
1999: Amaury Telemaco, Phillies
2000: Scott Williamson, Reds
New Favorite Non-Closer
2001: Juan Cruz, Cubs
2002: Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
2003: Octavio Dotel, Astros
2004: Juan Cruz, Braves
2005: Scot Shields, Angels
2006: Scott Proctor, Yankees
2007: Carlos Marmol, Cubs
2008: Jose Arredondo, Angels
2009: Neftali Feliz, Rangers
2010: Sammy Gervacio, Astros
New Favorite Non-Closer

With Neftali Feliz's implosion yesterday, we were on the search for a new favorite non-closer. While watching the Tim Lincecum game last night, we were treated to the most eccentric performance by a relief pitcher since old favorite, Mike Fetters. After a full day of being cooped inside, watching baseball, Houston Astros reliever, Sammy Gervacio, was a breath of fresh air.

MLB Properties loves to take baseball videos off the interweb, but for as long as it remains, we can try to enjoy this video here.


Opening Day Channel Surfing

The following consists of a few rambling observations while flipping through the MLB package on Timer Warner Cable in Manhattan.

What can be said about Albert Pujols? He starts the year with four hits and two homeruns.

Gaby Sanchez doesn’t look like much of a player, but he’s got a sweet righty swing.

Orlando Cabrera looks really bad defensively, which used to be his strength. He couldn't make a play on a relatively routine hopper a few steps to his left.

What a play by Buehrle! A kick-save turns a comebacker into a dribbler down the line, near 1st base. He shovels the ball with his glove, through his legs, while he’s falling out of bounds. Check out the video here...



More observations…

Dodgers are getting spanked by the Pirates, 8 to 2 in the 6th. What kind of photographs or other blackmail device does Vicente Padilla have over Joe Torre?

Kyle McClellan is showing very good stuff as the Cardinals’ primary set-up man. He may be next in line for saves, and I thought Jason Motte was Ryan Franklin’s understudy all along.

Greg Zaum looks like an ax murderer, with a long mountain man beard.

Opening Day Channel Surfing
Troy Glaus looks really tall, which I think is a good thing. Maybe his posture has improved.

Jason Heyward is impressive, even when he strikes out looking.

The Cubs are just horrible.*

Inside the Park Homerun for Stephen Drew, wow.

Tim Lincecum looked great, going 7 scoreless innings with 4 hits, 0 walks, and 7 strikeouts.

Felix Hernandez looked unhittable, as well. Unfortunately, he has not found his groove to maintain impeccable control. He only gave up 3 hits, but walked 6 batters before leaving with 2 out in the 7th inning.
Opening Day Channel Surfing
Delmon Young did in fact start his season off on the right foot, with two hits, including a Homerun.

Oh man, someone had an amazing mullet, but I can't remember right now who it was. Let's keep an eye out for this mullet. I know it's on a white guy with dark brown or black hair. I can't wait to remember or see him again; let's hope he doesn't get a haircut.

"Thank you" to Good Friends players with Homeruns yesterday: Colby Rasmus, Ian Stewart, Jason Heyward, and Kyle Blanks.

*I think the Cubs were only down two or three runs when I wrote that they are horrible. Marlon Byrd’s 3-run Homerun was a pleasant surprise, but his lack of range in the outfield is disgusting.

No Day Games today, which is a good thing for the American work force. Tonight, I’ll be keeping my eye on the NY/Boston game and want to see how Carlos Gonzalez and Ian Stewart do against a left-handed starter I Milwaukee. Now, let’s get to work and enjoy the light schedule of contests tonight.

Blue Jays Moving On

Blue Jays Moving OnShaun Marcum is going for a no hitter, with 1 out in the 6th inning. Elvis Andrus shows a bunt on the 1st pitch, fouls off the 2nd pitch, eventually running to count to 2-2 before striking out looking. The no-no is still a go. Travis Snider makes a nice play to retire Julio Borbon on a shallow ball down the line. Wouldn’t it be something if the Blue Jays got an Opening Day no-hitter after trading Roy Halladay?

2010 MLB Predictions

This post was started on March 29th, on a Path train to Hoboken, and a NJ Transit train from Hoboken to Millburn. It was continued on a Metro North train roundtrip between Grand Central and North White Plains. My thumbs and blackberry have never been so agreeable.

We're hoping it'll be a fantastic season, filled with intrigue, joy, and fair competition. It's hard being a Cubs fan these days because I can't get psyched about Marlon Byrd and Ryan Dempster types anymore. We're in the middle of a 101+ year quest for another World Series title. Our team is getting worse, while getting older. The window of opportunity to win a World Championship with this core of players is just about completely shut. Is it unreasonable to be a little perturbed at this point? I'm downright distraught.

Enough about me, though. We have a lot to look forward to with 2010 baseball, including but not limited to... the Major League Debuts of Aroldis Chapman, Jason Heyward, Mike Leake, & Stephen Strasburg, the probable debuts of Michael Stanton, Noel Arguelles, & Desmond Jennings, the emergence of Ian Stewart, Matt Weiters, & Buster Posey, and as always, the daily tribulations of America's greatest reality soap operas. I'm looking forward to the drama of teammates competing for jobs, veterans trying to salvage their careers, and young players establishing themselves as stars.

National League
NL East
2010 MLB PredictionsPhillies
Braves
Mets
Marlins
Nationals

Back-to-back reigning NL Champs don't usually have a brand new Ace, who's favored by many to win the Cy Young Award. I like the Braves, Mets, and Marlins to all compete for the Wild Card, with pitching and health being the most important variables, as always. The Nationals will get another good draft pick and look to compete around 2014.

NL Central
Cards
2010 MLB PredictionsReds
Brewers
Cubs
Astros
Pirates

If Cub fans are force fed more than 21 innings of Carlos Silva, we may find a reason to unite a civil protest. For there to be peace on Addison and Clark, fans may need to channel the energies of lost seasons in the '80s and '90s when all that mattered was drinking beers, listening to Harry, and looking at bikini tops in the bleachers. Sadly, the Cardinals should coast to an easy divisional victory, as long as an intoxicated Tony LaRussa doesn't take his players on a Barrett Robbins tour of Tijuana. The Reds could be about as exciting as the 2003 Cubs, if Chapman, Leake, and Harang pitch as many expect. Dusty Baker should be a fun manager to follow this season.

2010 MLB PredictionsNL West
SF Giants
Colorado Rockies
LA Dodgers
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks

The Dodgers and Rockies are the more popular picks to win the West. I'm counting on a strong 1/2/3 with Lincecum, Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez. All in all, I think the National league is in good shape. The worst teams are the Pirates and the Nationals, but they're improving. It feels like the only teams getting worse are the Cubs and Astros. Sigh.

2010 MLB PredictionsNL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Ricky Nolasco
NL RoY: Jason Heyward
NL Mgr: Bruce Bochy
NL Comeback PoY: Tim Hudson

American League
AL East
NY Yankees
Boston
Rays
Orioles
2010 MLB PredictionsBlue Jays


The Orioles are getting better and a year or two away from making this division very interesting. Currently, there is a fantastic argument to make in keeping Boston or New York out of the postseason, like they did in 2008. I just think that the Red Sox and Yankees are the teams to pick in 2010. If Desmond Jennings, Mark Hellickson, or Tim Beckham get called up early and make an impact, we could be jumping on Cinderella's bandwagon with full force. In the meantime, I love several additions made by the Red Sox (Scutaro, Cameron, Beltre, & Lackey) and defending champion Yankees (Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson, and Chan Ho Park).

AL Central
Twins
Tigers
2010 MLB PredictionsWhite Sox
Royals
Indians


The AL Central is a bit of a jumbled, perhaps below average, division. At the same time, I have tremendous respect for all five front offices. The Twins seemed to upgrade their infield and depth, by adding Orlando Hudson & Jim Thome. It sounds like Delmon Young could actually have a breakout season, hitting .300 with 40 or 50 extra base hits. They need to solidify the pitching staff and make up for losing the best regular season closer of the last five years. A revitalized Francisco Liriano, with steady performances from Scott Baker and Carl Pavano, will go a long way to get them close to the 89 wins it could take to win this division. For the fans, there is a lot to like in this division. Greinke & Verlander will likely be in another Cy Young conversation. Jake Peavy is trying like crazy to win in the post-season while he has a chance. The Tigers seem like they are another year away from being really dangerous. Still, they have a punchers chance; gambling on Max Sherzer could pay off in a big way. I think I placed the Royals above the Indians because I simply have no faith in Fausto Carmona's spring training numbers being legit. The Royals are a fascinatingly confusing organization that can be followed by some of baseball's best writers. Stay tuned.

AL West
Angels
2010 MLB PredictionsMariners
Athletics
Rangers


I hadn't made up my mind on this division until about 5 minutes before first pitch in Washington, DC today. I don't know why I'm taking the Angels. I have a lot of faith in Mick Scioscia, I suppose. A few weeks ago, I thought the Mariners' fantastic offseason was going to get them the division title. Then, I saw that their offense was really poor last season, and projections don't show much improvement. So, they have very good pitching & great defense, but how far will that take them? I think the A's could win the division if blog favorites Ben Sheets, Trevor Cahill, and Gio Gonzalez pitch up to their capabilities. The Rangers have been doing a lot of things right, but someone has to finish 4th. Actually, I really want to take the A's to win the Division. This is going to be a close one.

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
AL RoY: Brian Matusz
AL Mgr: Joe Girardi
AL Comeback PoY: Ben Sheets

2010 MLB PredictionsPost Season
NL Div Srs
Giants over Phillies
Braves over Cards

AL Div Srs
Yankees over Tigers
Red Sox over Angels

NLCS: Giants over Braves

ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox


World Series: Yankees over Giants
2010 MLB Predictions
World Series MVP: Mariano Rivera

Enjoy the action with today's openers and this opening week of the National Pastime. We'll try to be back as often as possible with observations, thoughts, and questions as we witness living history. Please submit thoughts, updates, requests, and inquiries to our comments section or email me at baguilera[at]gmail[dot]com.

Let's go Cubs; let's do it for Harry!

20 under 20%

The other consideration for title of this post was the sophomoric How Deep is Too Deep. As is commonly said, in "shallow" leagues teams need big time studs to win, and in deeper leagues teams need to find lesser known players to produce. Suffice it to say that I looked at players owned in less than 21% of leagues and picked an interesting player from 20%-1% ownership. It'll be interesting if any of these guys become everyday starters for fantasy players.

Fernando Rodney, RP, Angels (20%)
Anaheim’s closer, Brian Fuentes’s contract contains a 9 million dollar vesting option for 2011 if he finishes 55 games. There’s a good chance they brought Rodney in to close games, and Fuentes will be the situational lefty or 8th inning guy.

Felipe Lopez, 2b/SS, Cardinals (19%)
Runs will be scored in a lineup with Albert Pujols & Matt Holliday, and Lopez still has enough power/speed to be a valuable fantasy contributor.

Gio Gonzalez, SP, A’s (18%)20 under 20%
Less than 20% of Sportsline Rotisserie players think Gio is unrosterable. I feel it’s a huge mistake, as his home games reside in a pitcher’s park, and he has excellent strikeout ability.

Adam Kenneydy, 2b/3b, Nationals (17%)
Kennedy is probably just a stopgap player to fill in at 2b or Middle Infied, if you have someone like Brian Roberts or Jose Reyes, who won’t be ready on April 5th.

Gaby Sanchez, 1b, Marlins (16%)
20+ Homerun potential and a lifetime .300 Batting Average in the minor leagues make Gaby a legitimate sleeper.

Jake Fox, 3b/OF, A’s (15%)
I worry about Fox’s strikeouts leading to a problem with playing time, but his power will help and he can play 3rd, LF, RF, DH, and even emergency Catcher.

Michael Brantley, OF, Indians (14%)
We all heard about him from this post, I’m sure.

Chris Getz, 2b, KC (13%)
I think Getz has a chance to play every day and steal 35+ bases. As a second baseman, the pickings get pretty slim if you have an injury or two.

Drew Storen, RP, Nationals (12%)20 under 20%
Storen is really just someone to put on your scout team. If you’re in a league that rewards holds, you’ll want to pick up Storen as soon as you hear that they will likely call him up. He is the closer of the future in Washington, being selected nine picks after the golden boy: Stephen Strasburg.

Colby Lewis, SP, Rangers (11%)
He dominated for 2 seasons in Japan. In spite of his home ballpark, he’s probably worth a gamble.

Tom Gorzelanny, SP, Cubs (10%)
The Cubs are probably not going to be as terrible as I make them out to be. Moving Soriano to an RBI spot, like 5th or 6th, is going to be a huge improvement over his old spot leading off. His OBP is just too low to be hitting ahead of Lee and Aramis. Anyway, I think Gorzelanny will be good. He won’t strike out a ton of people, but he could be a cheap source of wins when playing the waiver wire.

Mat Gamel, 3b, Brewers (9%)
Unless you are Joe Mauer, beginning the season on the DL is usually not the precipice to having a career year. But, if your DL spot is not occupied, and you can freely drop someone, why not take a chance that this power-hitting prospect will come back in May and take the 3b job from Casey McGahee?

Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets (8%)
Only for long-term keeper leagues because he likely won’t make an impact in 2010.

José Bautista, 3b/OF, Blue Jays (7%)
I like all leadoff hitter for fantasy. They get more plate appearances and score lots of runs for having the team’s best hitters behind them. Bautista is a curious case, with his sub-.300 career OBP.
20 under 20%
Tim Beckham, SS, Rays (6%)
Big-time prospect. For deep, deep, long-term keeper leagues where you have a minor league slot. I still like Desmond Jennings more, from the Rays’ system.

Mike Jacobs, 1b, Mets (5%)
Jacobs has power and is starting the season at 1b for the Mets. Their season begins hosting the Marlins and Nationals. I could see Jacobs hitting a few long balls versus right-handed pitchers of both of those clubs. Then, the Mets are in Colorado for three games. If your team uses daily substitutions, you could get a few cheap homers from Jacobs on days he faces righties.

Felix Pie, OF, Orioles (4%)
As a heart-battered Cubs’ fan, I can provide no comment on Felix Pie’s success.

Randy Ruiz, DH, Tor (3%)
Ruiz is sort of another Jake Fox… lots of power, no speed, and unstable playing time.

Dana Eveland, SP, Tor (2%)
If you sit him against New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay, you’ll probably get some pretty good performances on the other days.

Jemile Weeks, 2b, A’s (1%)
If Jemile Weeks is to Rickie Weeks, as Justin Upton is to BJ Upton, we’ll all want to have Jamile Weeks when he’s eventually called up.

20 under 20%