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Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan mentions in his piece from yesterday’s paper that most people believe Derrek Lee will be playing elsewhere in 2011.

Sullivan cites “his age, his numbers and the fact the Cubs need a left-handed power hitter and first base is the logical position for such a player.”

When we last checked Kornheiser's crystal ball on May 25th, we saw the names of Adam Dunn, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Pena, Jorge Cantu, Paul Konerko, and homegrown minor leaguer, Josh Vitters.

If Sullivan is right, and the Cubs will look only at lefties, that eliminates Cantu, Konerko, and Vitters – who should be eliminated anyway for struggling mightily in double-A this year.

Who are the real possibilities?

Adrian Gonzalez is a trade target, but with the Padres having a great season, they will likely look to surround him with more talent next year, as opposed to moving him. The Cubs don’t have the prospects to get him and still give San Diego a chance to compete in 2011. The Red Sox, Rangers, and a few other teams might be able to make something happen, but most likely not the Cubs.

Looking at the 2011 free agent list from mlbtraderumors shows the only available lefty or switch first basemen who I think Cubs management would be comfortable replacing Derrek Lee are Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena, and maybe Lance Berkman.

As a Cubs’ fan, I think it would be inspiring to see them sign Victor Martinez.  Who else is out there?  Please don't say Hank Blalock or Russell Branyan.  (Please.)  Are there other trade possibilities?

We've been blessed with exciting rookies this year.  Just the National League has a bunch...

On today's worldwide holiday of superstitions, we wanted to celebrate the odd rituals of some of baseball's quirkiest players. There was an old Larry Stone article that had some tidbits about Larry Walker's compulsion with the number 3 and some other guy who always had to touch someone back, if they touched him. After a quick search through the interweb, I found the 2005 article in The Seattle Times, which we are pleased to share today.

We'll recap his article backwards because the stories he opens with are outstanding, and we usually save the best for last.  Stone basically is presenting his Mount Rushmore of superstitious ballplayers, including three recent players:

Larry Walker


The outfielder is obsessed with the number "3." He sets his alarm for 33 minutes past the hour, takes practice swings in multiples of three, wears No. 33, was married on Nov. 3 at 3:33 p.m., and bought tickets for 33 disadvantaged kids when he played in Montreal, to be seated in Section 333 at Olympic Stadium.


Wade Boggs


The recent Hall of Famer always ended his pregame infield practice by stepping, in order, on the third-, second- and first-base bags, stepping on the baseline, taking two steps in the coach's box and trotting to the dugout in exactly four steps.

Turk Wendell


The relief pitcher chewed four pieces of black licorice when he pitched, spit them out after each inning and brushed his teeth in the dugout, and leaped (not stepped) over the baseline (described as a "kangaroo hop").

The article didn't mention that Wade Boggs also ate fried chicken before every single game of his career, but we believe that is true and kind of gross.

We have no information as to how many beers Boggs can drink on a 4-hour flight.  The fourth member of this rushmore is a lesser known outfielder named Kevin Rhomberg:

Just ask Dan Rohn, the Mariners' Class AAA manager in Tacoma, about Rhomberg, whose signature superstition (or compulsion, to be technical), foremost among a long and varied list, was the need to touch back someone who had just touched him.

Check that — not need, but requirement. If a person somehow eluded his return touch, Rhomberg would send a letter that said, "This constitutes a touch."

Cleveland teammates, including Mariners manager Mike Hargrove, called him, "Touch Me, Touch Me," and, having ballplayers' playfully sadistic sensibilities, loved nothing more than to touch him and then run off, sending Rhomberg into a near panic.

Rick Sutcliffe once reached under a bathroom stall to touch Rhomberg on the toe. Not knowing whom the culprit was, Rhomberg went around the clubhouse and touched each player. Brook Jacoby once told of tagging Rhomberg with a ball in the minors, then throwing it out of the stadium. Jacoby said that Rhomberg spent two hours looking for the ball before finding it. An umpire once halted play during a game in New York to tell Yankees players to stop touching Rhomberg.

Rohn and Rhomberg were teammates in Venezuela for winter ball, and Rohn touched him one night, then ran off to the clubhouse to hide after his last at-bat.

"He looked for me for two hours," Rohn recalled. "I was hiding under desks, in the shower, the bathroom. He couldn't find me."

Rohn eventually returned to his hotel, thinking he had outfoxed Rhomberg. But at 3 in the morning, there was a knock at his door. A sleepy Rohn stumbled out of bed to open it.

"It was Rhomberg. He touched me and ran away," Rohn said.

Who doesn't love this game?

We're a little late in the day, but 23 years ago, on August 12, 1987, the Tigers traded a prospect named John Smoltz to the Braves for 36-year old Doyle Alexander.

John Smoltz, of course, went on to a legendary career. He's a certain Hall of Famer with 213 Wins, 154 Saves, over 3,000 strikeouts, and a lifetime 125 ERA+, 3.33 ERA and 3.30 xFIP. Most impressively, in the postseason he was 15-4 with a 2.67 ERA.

We still congratulate Detroit fans because Doyle Alexander went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 11 starts, and the Tigers won all 11 games, on their way to winning the AL East title.

In the 1987 ALCS versus the Twins, Alexander probably should not have been sent out there for the 8th inning of Game 1, which the Tigers lost. He was then blown out in the 2nd inning of the deciding Game 5.

I'm part of the school that celebrates division championships.

So, Congratulations Sparky Anderson, Tom Monaghan, Jim Campbell, Bill Lajoie, Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, Kirk Gibson, Chet Lemon, Bill Madlock, Darrell Evans, Jack Morris, Frank Tanana, the rest of the gang, and of course, Doyle Alexander.

I spoke with my Dad yesterday, and he said he read one of my posts and liked it. It was the one with the John Candy reference and picture. He liked that one and has been meaning to check the blog again. That was our one and only power poll this season. So, I figured: it’s been six weeks; this is a good time to see how the balance of power has shifted in our perception of Major League Baseball.

It’s interesting that standings have little to do with the order of the power poll when talking about non contenders. If you’re going to finish a dozen games out of the playoffs, you may be worse off than a team who’s more advanced in their rebuilding process but finished 35 games out.

As usual, we are counting down the power rankings from worst to first. (Their place in our rankings on June 25th in parenthesis.*)

*Before checking, I think the biggest jump has to be the Rangers.

Disaster
30. Cubs (23)
Our beloved Cubbies have had a miserable season. For some reason, I still have faith in Jim Hendry despite his recent track record. It’s been two terrible offseasons in a row, after a couple of offseasons that looked good but backfired.  Maybe I still like Hendry because I remember all the great things Steve Stone, Andy McPhail, and others said about him when he was appointed General Manager.

Let me stop right here because I don’t want to get too upset, and as Osh wrote: “Less Cubs.”

Is it Football Season Yet?
29. Indians (30)
28. Diamondbacks (27)

The Suns, supposedly, got a bunch of shooters to get Steve Nash some more assists and stay competitive. Cleveland doesn't want to talk about the NBA. Cleveland doesn't even have hockey. Sadly, these two cities have to root for the Browns and football Cardinals. Losing Warner and Bolding and having a crappy D'backs club likely means Arizonians are going to spend more time playing golf and less time watching the local sports teams the next couple years.

Looking at 2014
27. Royals (28)
26. Astros (29)
25. Orioles (25)

One of the best things about baseball - the hot stove and spring training in particular - is that even a target date of possibly making the postseason three or four years from now can spring hope among the fanbases.  The Royals got some valuable youth and salary relief at the trade deadline.   Fans in Houston are said to be buzzing about this new look club more than any time since they won the pennant in ’05.  In Baltimore, the Buck Showalter Era has taken off as the Orioles basically refuse to lose.  The return of a healthy Brian Roberts helps, too.

2013 Could be the Year
24. Blue Jays (17)
The Blue Jays dropped a lot in the rankings, but they have a chance to get “lucky” in the AL East because of their outstanding young pitching. It doesn’t sound like fun to think your team may be three years away from competing. Unfortunately, because of the way the Yankees are constructed and how Boston has so much money coming off the books this year, it looks like those two teams will own the division through at least 2012.

A Couple of Years Away
23. Pirates (26)
22. Mariners (24)
21. Nationals (19)

While the Mariners are losing power in our rankings, the faith we have in Jack Z’s process & King Felix’s presence keeps them within relative striking distance of a pennant. In the other two baseball towns, it should be an exciting time to be a fan.  Pittsburgh and out nation's capital have rich baseball history, but no recent success for the fans to cherish.  The future looks bright as their teams are young and talented. The reason we feel 2012 is a more reasonable target than next season is that they still have some pretty substantial questions marks. The Pirates are stronger in hitting and weaker in pitching than the Nationals, but both teams still need help with both. The Mariners really need to hit better.

Wait ‘till Next Year
20. Brewers (22)
19. Mets (12)
18. Angels (15)
17. Dodgers (13)
16. Marlins (18)
15. Athletics (20)
14. Tigers (6)

This is the tight knit group of heartbreakers. At least, for their fans' sakes, they have a chance next season. The Brewers likely have only one more year with Prince Fielder. They resisted the temptation to buy or sell this summer because, we think, they are comfortable with what they have going into 2011. Sometimes, you gotta know how to hold ‘em.

Speaking of four aces, the A’s are a lot like the Blue Jays in that we love their young starters. We seem to be wrong about the Tigers this season, but that shows how volatile the standings within that middle class of the 6th and 20th best teams.

Why Not Us?
13. Reds (11)
12. Rockies (16)
11. White Sox (21)
10. Twins (9)
9. Giants (8)
8. Padres (14)

Other than the Rockies, each team in this group has at least a 44.4% chance of making the postseason, according to coolstandings. The reason we have the Rockies here is because of their recent history as 2nd half miracle workers.

In it to Win It
7. Braves (7)
Losing Chipper to an ACL tear should drop them to the ‘Why Not Us?’ group, but we’re suckers for the Hollywood Ending in Bobby Cox’s swan song.

6. Cardinals (4)
I may not like it, and Brandon Phillips definitely doesn’t like it, but Wainright, Carpenter, Pujols, and the gang should be good enough to beat the Reds.

5. Red Sox (3)
It’s an off year for Boston, but we still can’t drop them further than 5th. It must be nice to be a Red Sox fan.

Book Drops March 22, 2011

4. Rays (2)
We are interested to see if the Rays can cut their payroll next year, lose Carl Crawford, and still compete in the AL East. My expectation, right now, is that they will be leapfrogged by the Red Sox and possibly the Blue Jays. Reading Jonah Keri’s “The Extra 2%”, after its release next spring, should make 2011 a fascinating season for the Tampa Bay Rays.

3. Rangers (10)
Nolan Ryan and Jon Daniels have done a tremendous job of developing young pitching, allowing Ron Washington to mix in a dynamic lineup that is strong defensively. It’s cherry picking, sure, but the Rangers are 2nd in the AL in UZR/150, behind only the Rays.*

*Can’t wait for Jonah’s book!

2. Phillies (5)
Injuries have kept this team down, but adding Roy Oswalt to the staff should not be overlooked.  We see a distinct possibility of the Phillies, once again, coming out of the National League with the pennant.

1. Yankees (1)

"Hey, we do this all the time!"

We’re sensing a theme here. The Yankees are loaded. If they don’t win the World Series, I feel this season could be a perfect example of how the postseason is a crapshoot. The Yankees have better part-time contributors than most other franchises have batting 6th or 7th in their lineup every night.

We were wrong about which team improved their most position in the rankings the most. It wasn’t the Rangers, who moved up 7 places. The Chicago White Sox moved up ten spots, from 21st to 11th. Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen are really good at their jobs. Aren’t they?

It’s kind of funny. It appears to us that they stay focused on winning better than other manager/GM teams. Isn’t that just a load of crap to spew out there, though? “They stay focused on winning better”, “they work harder!”, “they’re smarter”, how would we have any basis for making any of these claims? Persons with intimate access to every team’s front office throughout long careers, like MLB Network’s Peter Gammons and the worldwide leader’s Buster Olney, probably shouldn’t even make statements like that. And yet, other writers do it all the time.

We try very hard to limit the actual garbage we put into print.  Most of the time, we try to have some research done behind any real statement of consequence.  Sometimes, we react more on an emotional level to shout "he stinks!" or "did you see that?! that was incredible!", but we’ve never claimed to be competent writers over here.

We know a little bit about the game of baseball and have a solid respect for grammar and vocabulary. Other than that, we’d just be folks sitting in Wrigley Field, admiring the ivy, sunshine, surroundings, peanuts, stale draft beer, and sometimes the kosher hotdogs with the grilled onions from behind homeplate upstairs.

This park will host a World Series

(nonsense alert) Some people swear by the pork chop sandwich, but there’s nothing in it but a fried pork chop and a bun. I guess if you like pork chops and you love Chick Fil-A sandwiches, you’ll probably like it.

Okay, let’s digress. It’s difficult to stay focused when you’re writing a power poll and your favorite team is at the bottom. Although I stopped myself from writing everything out between numbers 30 and 29 in the pole, I’m still very upset. The Cubs really need some angels in the outfield, or something.

Jeeze, I have to digress again. Thanks for stopping by. Sigh.

We used to be really high on Wilson Betemit.  He was sort of a cult favorite of ours because he had little fan fare, but we liked the way he looked.  He looked a bit overweight in his early 20's, and he was a switch-hitter evoking memories of the great Terry Pendleton.

Wilson Betemit is only 28 years old, yet he's been in professional baseball for more than half of his life.

That was really unbelievable.  I had to double and triple check that, but it's true.  Betemit was was signed by the Atlanta Braves, in the Dominican Republic, when he was only 14 years old.

Five years later, as a 19-year old, he made his Major League debut in 8 games for the Braves.  During his cup of coffee, he went 0 for 3, with 2 walks, a stolen base, and a run scored.  Betemit had to wait another three years to wear a Major League uniform.  This time, he played 22 games and hit a disappointing .170/.231/.170 (Just 8 hits in 47 AB's, all singles).

He finally saw extended action and produced very good results as a 23-year-old in 2005.  He played 115 games, received 274 plate appearances, and hit .305/.359/.435.  It was around this time that he opened our eyes, and we thought he could be good.  He seemed to hit the ball with authority.

The Braves deemed Wilson Betemit expendable immediately before the 2006 trade deadline, as they sent him to the Dodgers for Willy Aybar, Danys Baez, and cash.  Betemit hit much better for the Braves than the Dodgers that season (113 OPS+ in Atl; 87 OPS+ in LA).

At the '07 trade deadline, the Dodgers flipped him to the Yankees, who gave him a year and a half in pinstripes before packaging him in a deal for the White Sox's Nick Swisher.

He played at under replacement lever for the Yankees, but they got the best return on him by trading for Swisher.  The Braves, Dodgers, and White Sox do not have anything that good to show for ever employing Betemit.

For the White Sox, he played in only 20 games before being granted free agency soon after the season ended on October 5th, 2009.

He was a free agent for just over a month before he decided to sign with the Kansas City Royals.

As fascinating as that decision may be, if you're choosing between the Royals and any other team, you're probably choosing the Royals for the opportunity at playing time, steak & bar-b-que, or there really wasn't another team to choose.

The reason we're talking about Wilson Betemit today is because I happened to notice that he's starting for the Royals today and batting .336.  I was about to tweet "It's 2010, Wilson Betemit is on the last place Royals, he's hitting .336 and OBP'ing .410 #Wha?", when I decided this should be a quick post on the ol' blog.

Even though he has mostly disappointed, we still like Betemit.  We're glad he's doing well, especially with a nonthreatening team like the Royals.  We even like the Royals a bit because of everything we read from Joe Posnanski (recommended!), Rany Jazayerly, Rob Neyer and others who we read, but not as often like Bob Dutton, Jason Whitlock, and Dick Kaegel.

His 2010 stats are outstanding.  This is the perfect opportunity for fans to study regression towards the mean.  In over 1,400 plate appearances, Wilson Betemit's career slash line is .265/.332/.441.  Given the opportunity to keep playing, his final stat line will inch closer to those numbers as the season goes on.  If Steve Stone taught me one thing it's that players' batting averages usually end very close to their career averages every year.  I don't think that he'll get enough AB's the rest of the way to end at .265, but a final season average under .300 is certainly possible.  Getting to .299 from .336 (or, losing more than 36 points in batting average) with 49 games left would leave some really ugly baseball forthcoming for Betemit.

That being said, the 14-year old who inspired the Braves organization to invest in him is in his prime season of 28-years old.  As Melvin Udall famously said to the other patients in his psychiatrist's waiting room, "What if this is as good as it gets?"  For our good friend, Wilson Betemit, this afternoon's stat line could possibly be his zenith.

Fresh off our most recent post, brilliant reader Osh went on a much appreciated Chris Johnson rant. We loved it. Our favorite part was the very beginning: "Less Cubs talk, more Chris Johnson. Thanks." Loved it!

Here is Osh's whole comment:

"Less Cubs talk, more Chris Johnson. Thanks. Check out his numbers since the All Star Break.

"Thanks, Osh!"

As of a couple days ago (as of AS break):

He leads the NL with a 1.204 OPS and is tied for first with a .462 OBP. He's third in OBP, first in slugging and first with 21 RBI.

For the entire season, he's he's first among MLB rookies with at least 140 ABs with a .351 batting average and a .554 slugging pct. He's 8 for 18 with 14 RBI with RISP since the break."

That's all good stuff. We noticed Chris Johnson was red hot when looking at players of the fortnight on July 31st.

Can you tackle Predator?

Sorry, Osh, but the Astros Chris Johnson does not get the BAseball Reality Tour endorsement. (The NFL's Chris Johnson has our full approval.  Especially after seeing his appearance on the ESPY's red carpet.)

The Astros' Chris Johnson minor league numbers show a lack of patience and inability to get on base. For his minor league career, his OBP is .315 in over 1,800 plate appearances. His strikeout to walk ratio was an abysmal 316 to 92.

As for his success this year, he has been extremely fortunate to have an impressive Major League slash line of .356/.382/.550 and a 148 OPS+. His strikeout to walk ratio is still terrible at 35 to 7, and his BABIP has been an unsustainable .426 (426!).

It's fun talking NL Central today, a day after the great Hal McCoy quoted the Reds' Brandon Phillips with some amazing anti-Cardinal sentiments:

“I’d play against these guys with one leg. We have to beat these guys. I hate the Cardinals. All they do is bitch and moan about everything, all of them, they’re little bitches, all of ‘em.

“I really hate the Cardinals. Compared to the Cardinals, I love the Chicago Cubs. Let me make this clear: I hate the Cardinals.”

"I hate the Cardinals!"

We never used to like you, Brandon Phillips. Much like the Astros Chris Johnson, we never liked your impatience in the batters' box.

However, we are open minded.  We're able to adapt, to grow, to be good people.  So, Brandon Phillips, after sparking this feud with Heir LaRussa, you're all right with us.

Who knows? Maybe the Cubs will sign you when you're past your prime.

It's never easy to make your Major League debut. Think about how nervous, excited, or anxious you may get for your first day of school, or first day at a new job. Now, imagine that there are 40,000 people around you and millions more watching you on TV, tracking your moves online, or listening to your performance on the radio. No matter if you're usually cool as a cucumber, there will be butterflies.

We witnessed Chris Sale's inability to retire a batter in his debut this past Friday.

Not the best debut for some

Last night, the not as lovable as in the '80s loser Cubs threw Marcos Mateo to the bottom of the 10th inning wolves of a tie game. Facing the 7, 8, 9 hitters of this year's San Francisco Giants isn't exactly the same as the lions of the Coliseum in Rome, but extra inning pressure is different than the usual mopup or big lead environment you'd prefer to have a rookie pop his cherry with.

"Just take the picture"

Mateo is older than your usual freshman, at 26, but this product of San Crostobal, Dominican Republic has been having a nice season across three levels of the Cubs system. Most of his innings and success came in Double A, but even his Triple A minor league splits look very good, with a 10.13 K/9 inning ratio, a 51.4% groundball percentage, and 2.31 FIP with Iowa.

Overall, he pitched just 1 inning of rookie ball, 20 2/3 in Double A, and 10 2/3 in Triple A. His combined numbers are fantastic, when looking at a 1.22 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, and 6.43 K/BB ratio. His groundball percentage in Double A was also a strong 51.6%. It's interesting that at both levels, he had unlucky BABIP's of .362 in AA and .333 in AAA.

Last night, he struck out Juan Uribe to start things off, gave up a single to Travis Ishikawa, struck out Freddy Sanchez, then was lucky to get out of the inning. Andrés Torres hit what was officially ruled a double to shallow right, and Ishikawa, the Pride of Federal Way, was thrown out at home by Mike Fontenot's relay of Tyler Colvin's throw.

The Ladies Love Pat the Bat

The bottom of the 11th was more one-sided. Edgar Renteria jumped on a first pitch slider for a single to left. The next batter, Aubrey Huff, may have been sitting slider, as he took two fastballs to a 1-1 count before ripping a slider to right. Sweet Lou calls for the intentional pass of Buster Posey to load the bases and set up a force at the plate. Well known ladies' man, Pat Burrell, pounces on Mateo's first pitch, a 91 mph meatball right down Broadway. Burrell hits a deep flyball to centerfield, ending the game as Renteria scores easily.

Sorry, this recap is not exactly "Casey at the Bat", I guess. At least Mateo's pitch f/x data on texasleaguers is cool to peruse.

Fans of losing teams need to find patterns of hope. Derek Lee certainly hasn't brought us any. I think some fans want Aramis Ramirez to opt out of his contract. The outfield is a disaster.

Is there inspiration in the bullpen? When the Cubs stunk eight or nine years ago, some of us were excited about this kid called Zambrano who looked like he threw a heavy fastball.

Can we really get excited about Tyler Colvin? I'm not. He strikes out too much and doesn't reach base enough. He didn't in the minors, either. Brett Jackson? His minor league OBP looks good, but the Cubs won't be very good if he's one of the their top 3 players. Hayden Simpson? He hasn't even thrown a pitch as a professional. Maybe we can get excited about previously unheard of Thomas Diamond. I don't know. I'm not that psyched about him.

Oh yeah, we still have Starlin Castro. He's only 20 years old, playing good defense at Shortstop (5.1 UZR/150), and his slash line in the Major Leagues is .308/.355/.444. That'll help for a little while.

"Let's Go, bud.  You're all we got!"