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Let's begin with what this is NOT.  This is not a quasi mock fantasy draft.  We're not ranking players with a view on fantasy baseball.  We are not necessarily arguing that any of these players will be better in 2011 than some older stars like Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, or Justin Morneau.  They are just a bit older than the scope of our prime seasons bullseyes.

Despite this analysis, we may pick Pujols to win the MVP again in '11

People argue over the age of baseball players in the prime of their careers.  For a long time, it was considered ages 27-32, where one can find plenty of Hall of Fame caliber seasons throughout history.  Personally, I think the prime is much younger, more acute, to something like 24-27.

We're looking at players entering their Age 28 seasons and younger.  So, please don't write in that Carl Crawford is better than this guy, or Josh Hamilton is better than that guy.

Brandon Belt's stardom is approaching quickly.

We're also only looking at players with Major League experience.  So, top prospects we can't wait to see like Brandon Belt and Lonnie Chisenhall will have to wait for their own Future Stars prospect post, dedicated to Dave Horn.

In this study, we only looked at hitters.  Pitching is still so unpredictable, that there are usually only about a dozen pitchers each year we can get excited about without having substantial concern for injury.

As points of reference, the oldest player in our 109-player study is Shin Soo-Choo.  The youngest is, of course, Starlin Castro.  The player with the most career plate appearances is Miguel Cabrera, with 5,089 in the regular season.  Freddie Freeman and Desmond Jennings have the fewest, with 24 plate appearances each.  From the data, we briefly present a few leaderboards:

Career OPS+

Votto is a worthy MVP

1. Joey Votto 151
2. Miguel Cabrera 145
3. Carlos Santana 144
4. Ryan Braun 140
5. Prince Fielder 139
6. Shin-Soo Choo 138
7. Joe Mauer 136
8. Hanley Ramirez 135
David Wright 135
10. Evan Longoria 134

We don't have much time for NFL talk this weekend.  We're a bit involved in a project for friend of the blog, Graham Womack, of Baseball Past and Present.  Graham got in touch with me after reading our "Hall of Fame's Best Outsiders" post, back in August.  Feel free to read the comment thread from the reposting on Seamheads to see other people's contributions to the discussion.  Graham is working on a project devoted to the 50 greatest non-Hall of Famers.

We're all over any chance to give Quiz some pub'

If any friends want to offer contributions, please email me or comment below, and I'll see if there are any ballots available.  You'd better believe we'll be giving some big ups to our boys: Ron Santo, Dan Quisenberry, and Bobby Grich.

It's going to be great when a few guys from our 1st Occasional Non Hall of Famers team make it into the Hall, thus opening room for new outsiders on the 2nd Occasional team.

In regards to the National Football Gambling Picks, I went 2-1 on Thanksgiving, inconceivably raising my season record to fifteen games over .500.

There's plenty of room with us on the Giants bandwagon.

This kind of run, gambling on a .593 Winning Percentage, naturally, makes me want to start gambling regularly.  With as much money as I can get my hands on.  But, that's where they get you.  In accordance to our better judgement, we suggest everyone NOT gamble.

Week 12 Picks
Pats -7 @ Detroit, W
Saints -4 @ Dallas, L
Jets -9 vs Bengals, W

Do you remember when Dwayne Bowe was a bust?

Redskins -1 vs Vikings
Texans -6.5 vs Titans
NY Giants -6.5 vs Jaguars
Steelers -6.5 @ Buffalo
Browns -10 vs Panthers
Packers +2 @ Atlanta
Chiefs -2.5 @ Seattle
Raiders -3.5 vs Dolphins
Rams +3.5 @ Denver
Eagles -3.5 @ Chicago
Buccaneers +7.5 @ Baltimore

How about Rivers for MVP?

Chargers +3 @ Indianapolis
Cardinals +1 vs 49ers

This week's Unsponsored Locks of the Week are the Redskins, Packers, and Chargers.  Truthfully, I don't really feel good about the picks for any of these games.  I wouldn't be surprised if I get them all wrong.  But the Locks of the Week are the 3 games we'd bet on if we were in Vegas and "had to" pick a few games to bet on because we're staying in a casino during an NFL Sunday.

Season Record: 48-33-3 (.593 W%)
Locks: 9-6-3

In closing, all this talk of non-Hall of Famers has gotten me thinking of personal favorite, The Pride of Havana, Dolf Luque.  We highly recommend this fantastic account about Adolfo Domingo de Guzman Luque by the awfully impressive Callum Hughson, of Mop-Up Duty.

In his Dolf Luque post, Callum shares the video below, which I really want to share with the select few people who made it this far in the post.  It's pretty special.


Béisbol. from Memoria de Cuba on Vimeo.

This week, we've been working on a pretty neat analysis of baseball players in their primes.  There should be some interesting new tidbits on guys ranging from Miguel Cabrera to Brett Wallace.

As we look at today's National Football League festivities, the games look like they are going to be very good.

Look, he's being a jet!

Last week was hot.  I was at the incredible Jets/Texans game.  More importantly, my picks went 10-6, while Weino bounced back from two sub-.500 weeks to go 12-3.

Personally, to make these picks I use the Simmons method of trying to predict the lines, then wagering off the arbitrage between my predicted line and the actual line.  For example, last week, I thought the Bears/Dolphins line should have been Bears -2.  It was Miami -1.5, so I jumped all over the Bears +1.5 opportunity.

This week is a test; I'm going to Zig when Vegas expects me to Zag.  My guesses for this week were Pats -3, Saints -3, Jets -6.  I selected the correct favorites but didn't give enough points.  The method we practice should tell us to take the underdogs, and therefore the points.  But, while nonsense, it's a holiday.  I'm feeling like our instincts were right, but we were a bit stingy with the spreads this morning.  So, as you can deduce, these are our picks for today:

Danny Woodhead could win a Turkey Leg today.

Pats -7 @ Detroit
Saints -4 @ Dallas
Jets -9 vs Bengals

Since it's a holiday, and these are Nationally televised games, let's select our picks to click*: Danny Woodhead, Drew Breese, and Shonn Greene.

*Yes, it's true.  Picks to click are an homage to old White Sox broadcasts of my youth.  I think they still do it, and I would say that picks to click are the only things I've ever considered to be positive contributions from Hawk Harrelson.

None of these picks are locks.  We'll have three locks with our picks for Sunday/Monday, coming out this weekend.  Enjoy your holiday, the games, and please remember to be thankful for something.

This morning, Ignacio Serrano of El Nacional newspaper in Venezuela broke the story that Victor Martinez was leaving Boston to sign a 4yr/$50 million deal with the Detroit Tigers.  There is some confusion that V-Mart rejected a 3yr/$60 million or 3yr/$48 million from the White Sox, but I find that so hard to believe that I am throwing it out as a typo or misunderstanding somewhere along the rumor mill.

What got me thinking today was this retweet from the blog's new BFF, Ignacio.  Although it is for a sad reason, it is good to remember Bo Diaz, who passed away 20 years ago today from a tragic accident at his home.

Readers of a certain age probably remember him from his run with the Reds in the late '80s, or prior stops in Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Boston.  Diaz had a memorable 13-year career in the Major Leagues and even more legendary run in the Winter Leagues of Venezuela for los Leones del Caracas from 1972-1990.

Baudilio Jose Diaz is widely thought of as the finest catcher born in Venezuela.

As Steve Stone used to say, "For all you youngsters out there..." here is a short video of Bo Diaz, answering a request to describe how to set up to call and receive a pitch.  Notice how delicately he describes game planning with the pitcher.  Diaz recommends blocking the signs from the opposing team and keeping your free hand closed, as a fist, in case it gets hit by a foul tip.



Any Questions?

Last week, we found out that Jamie Moyer was shut down from the Dominican League because of his 2nd elbow injury since July.  Many expect Moyer to retire, but he intends to pitch again, even if he needs Tommy John Surgery.

Why did this photo appear when I searched for Jamie Moyer Cubs?

I wouldn’t bet against him and wholeheartedly hope he does come back.  For many of us, he’s the last link to our childhood as fans.  He’s been the oldest player in the leagues for years, since Julio Franco, I think.

Jamie Moyer turned 48 this past Thursday.  As hyperbole and exaggeration rule supreme, Moyer’s lore extends beyond 100 years, to the freewheeling days of deadballs and speakeasies.

Personally, I remember not thinking much of Moyer when he was a below average starting pitcher for my beloved Cubs in 1986, ’87, and ’88.

Moyer Won 28 games, but also gave up 58 homeruns as a Cub.

The most memorable part of his game was, unfortunately, watching the way his weird looking jaw muscles moved while he smacked on his gum on the mound, awaiting the catcher’s signals.

Even if he does eventually come back, it’s safe to say that Jamie Moyer will not be pitching for anyone on Opening Day.

Presuming that Rickey Henderson and Julio Franco won’t return, we’re looking at a changing of the guard among elder statesmen of the game.  Next in line has a chance to stick around for a few years because he also is a crafty pitcher who doesn’t rely on fastball velocity to make out: Tim Wakefield.

Wakefield, born August 2, 1966, should have a nice run as Major League Baseball’s Senior Greybeard.  He could be the next Charlie Hough, or something.

And now for the dorkiest of trivial baseball dorky lists… If by some chance Wakefield and Moyer both hang them up after 2011, here are some players who could carry the torch in 2012:

We could see a Smoltz comeback.

Omar Vizquel, April '67
John Smoltz, May '67
Trevor Hoffman, Oct '67
Matt Stairs, Feb '68
Russ Springer, Nov '68
Arthur Rhodes, Oct '69
Mariano Rivera, Nov '69

Given today’s salaries and knuckleballer’s prepared conditioning and continued effectiveness, we expect the 44-year old Wakefield to at least equal Moyer and make it to his age 47 season.  If not, wouldn’t it be fun, at least for future folklore, to have The Hammer of God as the oldest player in the game?  Maybe the Yankees will overpay to keep him around a few years after he stinks.

Being a Cubs fan is an exercise in futility.  From somewhere deep within, there is hope.  Outside circumstances surrounding the Chicago Cubs may make it so that our hopes are more, or less, noticeable.  During the Jim Hendry Era, we've had reasons for hope.


Think back to the formidable pitching rotation a few years ago with Prior, Wood, Maddux, Clement, and Zambrano.

We had superstar managers.  In Dusty, we trustied.  Then, Sweet Lou showed up to turn the Cubs winners.

The Outfield was always a work in progress, and they kept dumping money on the wrong players.  Alfonso Soriano was a power/speed monster who was supposed to get the team over the hump.  Dreadful.  Kosuke Fukudome was supposed to be a blend of Ichiro and Godzilla.  Nope, not even close.  Milton Bradley was a switch-hitting OPS monster with some character and durability flaws, but man that OPS!  He's a whole other story altogether.  All the while, we had Felix Pie who wound up finally showing some of his promise the past two years in Baltimore.

On the mound, among other things, Jeff Samardzija was supposed to bring his golden dome to the Wrigley Field mound and blow hitters away.  That hasn't happened.

Much like the thoughts of our beloved Chicago Bears, and the empty feelings surrounding their current 7-3 record, we should maintain some hope.  It's tougher with the Cubs, when we see them go for less expensive options at Manager, Pitching Coach, and on the field.  Couldn't the Cubs use Cliff Lee and tell Silva or Wells to get lost, or move to the bullpen, or get better, or something?  What's the use?  The Cubs are keeping payroll level with 2010 spending, although they stunk this year and they're getting revenues from every possible stream surrounding the organization.  It's infuriating.  The Cubs lost one of the best pitching coaches in the game, when Larry Rothschild left for the same position with the New York Yankees.  They could be innovative and let Greg Maddux slide into the position, but they'll probably lose him to Arizona, just as they lost him to Atlanta almost 20 years ago.  What's the word for something that is infuriating even before it happens, but you know it's going to happen, then it happens?  That's what being a Cubs fan has been like since Steve Bartman got his fat fingers in Moises Alou's mitt.

Let's witch gears, Mark McGwire style... I'm not here to talk about the past.

Maybe the Cubs will get better this offseason.

Maybe, just maybe, they'll get Adam Dunn, and he'll be worth the money.  Maybe Kerry Wood will give a good ol' boy discount and come back to pitch with Marmol and Marshall in the 'pen.  Perhaps, some prospects can come up from Iowa and Daytona to help the cause beyond expectations.

Yesterday, the Cubs added a few prospects to their 40-man roster, pitchers Chris Archer, Kyle Smit and Alberto Cabrera and outfielder Brandon Guyer.  Cabrera and Guyer began their pro careers in the Cubs' organization, while Kyle Smit came over from the Dodgers in the Ted Lilly trade.  The Cubs got Archer a couple of years ago, when they traded Mark DeRosa to the Indians.

In short, during Chris Archer's minor league run with the Cubs, he has been terrific.  From this ChicagoCubsOnline.com post:

Archer was named the Cubs Minor League Pitcher of the Year after a tremendous 2010 season.


Archer (22 years old, September 26, 1988) posted a 15-3 record in 28 games, 27 starts, with the Daytona Cubs (High Class-A) and the Tennessee Smokies (Double-A). Archer struck out 149 and walked 65 in 142 1/3 innings with a 2.34 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Archer was a solid 8-2 in 13 starts after his promotion to the Smokies and posted a 1.80 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP (67 strikeouts and 39 walks) in 70 innings.


Chris Archer is expected to compete for a spot in the Cubs' rotation this spring.

So, there you go fellow Cubs fans, a little offseason hope for the future.  Pay no attention to all the other great prospects that every other Major League team has.  We gotta believe!  It has been said that being a Cubs fan means the best day of your life hasn't happened yet.  We'll see about that.  Still, there are some things we cannot deny.  The shackles of hope won't let us go.  Even if 2011 is already a lost cause, the shackles of hope won't let us go.  There's hope; we maintain hope for that one sweet day.

Last night, the Bears avenged 1985 as both Weino and I predicted.  The Bears are 7-3, but I'm not a believer.  I used to believe in the Bears, even when they were terrible.  Then, I became a realist, especially on defense.  If the defense doesn't inspire confidence, I don't believe in the team.  No 7-3 Bears team has inspired less confidence in my lifetime.

Football is a funny sport.  It's great on TV, and it is unpredictable.  Unlike futbol, or soccer, it has enough scoring to be fantastic for gambling.  So much of football is unpredictable.  Game rules change each season.  Game styles change weekly, based on personnel, opponent, or weather.  Football injuries are frequent and can change the entire complexion of a team.  Professional football doesn't have a long historical database of statistics, like baseball.  The historical depth of Football pales in comparison with the legendary, worldwide obsession with boxing.

So, I have no confidence in this 7-3 Bears team.  Why not?  Because their WR's stink.  Because their offensive line is the worst of any team above .500.*  Because I live in New York and don't have DirecTV.

*Great assumption I'm just throwing out there as fact, without looking up and considering the over .500 teams in any way at all?

We have faith in these guys. Yes, we do.

These Bears are only ten games into their new offensive scheme.  Perhaps, I should lighten up.  The Bears defense leads the league in points per game allowed.  I should probably have a bit more faith in Lovie, Jerry Angelo, Julius Peppers, and the boys.

On the gambling front, I still do not provide any aplomb with our NFL picks.  We've had a couple of hot weeks, with 17 wins, 8 losses, and 2 pushes in Weeks 9 and 10.

You can see it in his eyes.

Since I expect to finish the season around .500, it's a good time to pull a Costanza and do the opposite of what we bet below.

As we face another Bearsless Sunday, here are our picks for Week 11:

Bears +1.5 @ Miami
Bengals -5.5 vs Bills

What happened to Neck Beard?

Browns +1.5 @ Jacksonville
Lions +6.5 @ Dallas
Ravens -10.5 @ Carolina
Packers -3 @ Minnesota
Texans +7 @ NY Jets
Redskins +7 @ Tennessee
Chiefs -8 vs Cardinals
Raiders +7 @ Pittsburgh
Rams +3 vs Falcons
Saints -11.5 vs Seahawks
Buccaneers +3.5 @ SF 49ers
Patriots -3.5 vs Colts
NY Giants +3 @ Philadelphia
Broncos +10 @ San Diego

The locks this week are the Ravens, Bucs, and Broncos.

Season Record: 38-27-3 (.585 W%)
Locks: 7-5-3

Don't gamble!

Enjoy the games!

As we showed during last week's unveiling of our Top 100 Free Agents post, we thought very highly of the Tigers' new relief pitcher extraordinaire Joaquin Benoit.

$16.5 M buys a lot in Detroit

We listed him at #12, probably could have gone even higher, and even included a photo with a caption reading that Benoit was ready to get paid.  Good for the Tigers.

Benoit had a remarkable season, showing outstanding numbers in traditional statistics, as well as peripheral indicators and newfangled stats.  He throws strikes and will be aptly managed by Jim Leyland.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka is a 26-year old middle infielder and the 2010 Japanese league batting champion.  According to this ESPN news release yesterday, Nishioka's team announced that he is free to enter Major League Baseball via the posting system.

As far as the top 100 MLB free agents list is concerned, exit Joaquin Benoit, enter Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

This Japanese import probably fits somewhere in the 7 to 14 range with players like Jorge de la Rosa, Rafael Soriano, Andy Pettitte, Jake Westbrook, Orlando Hudson, Aubrey Huff, and Hisashi Iwakuma.

From the quick look ups I did on Nishioka, he has question marks with defense and durability.  However, he has shown good plate discipline, doubles power, stolen base ability, and a small sample sized portion of excelling under the bright lights of International Competition.

You'll like Boston, Tsuyoshi. The people are nice.

Click on Tsuyoshi Nishioka's Baseball Cube page to see his stats with the Chiba Lotte Marines and Japanese National Team at the World Baseball Classics and 2008 Olympics.

The middle infield crop of free agents is so thin that he probably slips right on to the top of the list.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Orlando Hudson
Juan Uribe
Bill Hall
Miguel Tejada

Cesar Izturis, will work for UZR

Nick Punto
Orlando Cabrera
Jerry Hairston, Jr
Edgar Renteria
Cesar Izturis
Adam Everett
Omar Vizquel
Craig Counsell
Bobby Crosby
Christian Guzman

Jeeze, that list is just terrible.

Everyone on the list is either a player you know cannot do it all, or he has some serious question marks regarding age, hitting, range, and durability.  There are fifteen players listed there, and it's possible 7 or 8 of them could be without a job on Opening Day.

The Twins and Red Sox reportedly are interested in Nishioka, and I am guessing there will be other suitors including the Mariners, Giants, and Orioles.

The mullet alone is worth 1.5 WAR

Patrick Newman at Fangraphs sees Tsuyoshi Nishioka as a Ryan Theriot/Chone Figgins type.  I could se him show a bit more power than that, but regardless, that is pretty good compared with the other FA's.

I'm guessing it'll cost a minimum of $12 million to win the posting fee for Nishioka.  The Twins would presumably slide him to 2nd base, and let Orlando Hudson walk, while the Red Sox would use him at Shortstop.  I think the Red Sox would really be doing themselves a favor, mostly by weakening their opponents, if they were able to sign Nishioka and bring back Bill Hall.

Even if they do not bring back Adrian Beltre, they could slide Youkilis over to third base and play Lars Anderson at first.

Theo's got a lot to do if you consider that he also has Victor Martinez's agent on line 2.