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Patience and Power

We were looking for active players who are patient, have dynamic batting skills, and are young enough to be relatively dependable. So, the criteria we chose were:

- Minimum 500 career Plate Appearances
- Minimum 13.5% career BB%
- Minimum 125 career wRC+
- Younger than 35 years old today (Feb 23, 2011)

Unless our calculations are incorrect, and they really could* be, below is an exclusive club.

Patience and Power
Cust's agent should bring
 this up next offseason.
Albert Pujols
Adam Dunn
Jason Heyward
Jack Cust**

That's it. That's the list.

*As usual, please let us know in the comments section if we've omitted anyone.

**One more thing on Jack Cust, here are the Career BB% Leaders over the past 25 years, min 500 PA's:

1. Barry Bonds: 20.3%
2. Jack Clark: 20.1%
3. Ken Phelps: 18.1%
4. Jack Cust: 17.3%

Thanks to Fangraphs for the stats.

Traveling Man

Sitting on a balcony in South Beach, Miami, staring across the Atlantic Ocean, with a purple haze funk in the air, my thoughts take me to Spring Training. I'm looking forward to my good friend's wedding this weekend, and considering what it means to be here, there, or anywhere. Looking at the horizon over the sea open my mind.

Thoughts usually drift from anticipation to memories. Isn't the way it always is? This seems like a perfect time to jot these rambling thoughts down into my blackberry to see where they take us... and away we go...

It is taking me over 2 seasons to get used to seeing Tom Crean coaching the Indiana Hoosiers. The reasons behind this are unclear, as I've easily adapted to college basketball coaches changing schools, like Tubby Smith, Pitino, Bill Self, Roy Williams to North Carolina, that jerk from Cincinnati going to West Virginia, and others. Perhaps it is because the news of Crean to Indiana flew a bit under my radar, when it happened. Where was I when it happened? Looking it up, it was April 2, 2008. Now, it makes sense that I'd not have heard since this is the height of baseball Opening Day anticipation. Okay, that one got away from me, sorry, a bit of a doozie.

Traveling Man
"Muevete Panda"
The reason I thought of Crean, whom of course I will forever identify with Marquette, is that I am now realizing that Miguel Tejada is on the defending World Champion San Francisco Giants. Tejada, who had moved to 3rd base a couple of years ago due to diminished defensive range will be moving back to shortstop for the Giants. If he can hit, he could be worth it, but his defensive placement will likely lead to higher BABIP's for Giants pitchers.

***

The White Sox closer situation. Bobby Jenks and J.J. Putz are gone. Matt Thornton has been one of the best relief pitchers in the world over the past few seasons. We have praised Ozzie Guillen and Don Cooper in this space before for their abilities to handle a pitching staff. One aspect that hasn't received its due attention is how they would unleash Thornton at different times in the game, when he would be needed most. It's old school to make your best reliever your closer, but the new way of thinking leans towards using your best reliever when the game is most on the line. That could be with two on and two out in the 6th.

Traveling Man
Jake Peavy is the Sox's Wildcard
Thornton, as you probably know, is left-handed. We haven't see many lefty closers outside of Billy Wagner and John Franco. Maybe that's because most teams have either zero or one really good lefty reliever. If that's the case, a manager will likely use him situationally while leaning on a few right-handed fireballers for the late innings.

The White Sox are lucky to also have left-hander Chris Sale in the bullpen. He is a high pedigree player who was drafted and made his Major League debut in the same season, last year. Sale was drafted as a starter, but as young pitchers are groomed to throw more innings as they age, it can be prudent to limit his innings by having him pitch in relief for a few months or a couple of years. We like the way this Sox 'pen looks because Sale can be used like Thornton the past few years, Will Ohman can be a LOOGY, and Sergio Santos & Thornton can be relied upon for the 8th/9th.

***

If you play auction style fantasy baseball, may I suggest targeting 1st baseman for a dollar or two. In Major League Baseball, if your first baseman isn't Doug Mientkiewicz, your 1st baseman can hit. The 20th best first baseman, for example will be able to hit relatively well, and much, much better than the 20th best at any other position besides of course outfield. With 3, 4, or 5 outfield slots in fantasy leagues, we would raise the comparison of 20th best 1st baseman to the 60th or 70th best outfielder. Last year, we did pretty well with underrated first basemen Gaby Sanchez, Aubrey Huff, and Jorge Cantu. This year, for a dollar or two, we could see Sanchez continue to emerge as well as a good return from guys like Brandon Belt, whomever starts for Arizona, and maybe even Brett Wallace or Xavier Nady.

***

I've moved on to the Grove Isle Hotel in Coconut Grove, Miami. It is quite lovely and tranquil here, and spirits are high as everyone is here to celebrate a wedding with lots of love.
It would probably be good for humanity if Joe Posnanski were inclined to write two or three thousand words on humanity every Saturday night. Read his thoughts from a bookstore here.

***

Traveling Man
Sizemore may never be the same.
Is Kyle Blanks going to be any good this year? How about Grady Sizemore? Blanks is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and Sizemore had microfracture surgery.

For now, I'd stay away from both unless I could get Sizemore as a backup outfielder and maybe Blanks could be a decent pick in the last round.

***

Few amenities in life are as fulfilling to me as a heated pool. Please allow me to rephrase, few amenities in life are as unfulfilling as a non heated pool. Thankfully, the Grove Isle Hotel's pool is splendidly heated to the point where it's actually warm. Bliss.

***

Back in the hotel room. It's not President's Day. The wedding was lovely. The band couldn't play Iko-Iko, which was ridiculous. We'll be flying back to New York in a couple of hours. Let's have a great week.

Roto Top 100 Board (W.I.P.)

It's a lazy Saturday morning. The Albert Pujols drama is still somersaulting from the sounds inside my mind. I've been trying to put my thoughts on why it would be good for the Cubs if he resigned with the Cardinals for 10 years and $300 million, but it just isn't clicking right now. I'm blaming the Cubs' curse. There is a Green Bay Packers/Brett Favre analogy in there somewhere, too.

As we try to get the blood and ink flowing, we're drawn to our old crutch, the alter-ego of the reality tour: Fantasy Baseball.

At the risk of not winning our own 2011 rotisserie league, I thought it'd be neat to share a quick glimpse of what it's like for us to build a rotisserie draft Top 100 board from scratch.

*W.I.P. stands for Work In Progress and of course is meant as a shout out to our accounting friends!

Basically, what's going on is I brainstorm the names and rank them as they come to mind. Once players are on the list, we'll move them up and down after considering Weino's invaluable perspective as well as position scarcity and additional statistics and information. Usually, when someone comes to mind, they start at the bottom of the list. The rare exceptions are those times I forget Jason Heyward or talk myself into believing that Carlos Santana's injury is nothing to worry about.

As we get comfortable with the top of the list, we begin to number the top picks as we would the first round of the fantasy draft. We're usually pretty good at ranking the top 6 or 8 players that get picked in our draft, and it's a great feeling when someone drafts a player we have way down on our list.

This year seems much different. There are decent arguments between whom should be taken with the top pick, who should go 3rd, 4th, and so on. The only sure thing, it seems, this year is that the 2nd pick will be the remainder from Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols.

Please keep in mind, we do all rankings of hitters with On Base Percentage in mind, as opposed to Batting Average.

Roto Top 100 Board (W.I.P.)
Hanley @ #1 overall is OK
Hopefully, we'll have a nice list over 100 before we need to really get ready for the draft.

Hanley
Albert
Tulo
MiggyCab
Longoria
Cano
Votto
Braun
Mauer
Roto Top 100 Board (W.I.P.)
Utley in the 2nd Round??
D. Wright
Zimmerman
Youkilis
Utley
A-Rod
A-Gonz
Cliff Lee
Doc Halladay
Crawford
King Felix
Greinke
Matt Holliday
Teixeira
Roto Top 100 Board (W.I.P.)
Carlos Santana, future ex-Indian
Prince
McCann
V-Mart
Carlos Santana
Buster Posey
Jose Bautista
Dan Uggla
Shin-Soo Choo
Lincecum
Josh Hamilton
Roto Top 100 Board (W.I.P.)
Kershaw should be more dominant in '11
CarGo
Pedroia
Jose Reyes
Kinsler
Jason Heyward
Clayton Kershaw
Josh Johnson
David Price
Rickie Weeks
Matt Kemp
Roto Top 100 Board (W.I.P.)
Jay Bruce is getting stronger
Jay Bruce
Jon Lester
Adam Wainwright
Ryan Howard
Adam Dunn
Justin Upton
Ellsbury
Ubaldo
Tommy Hanson
Verlander
Yovani Gallardo
Adrian Beltre
Andrew McCutchen
Roto Top 100 Board (W.I.P.)
Tommy's so happy to be on our list.
Curtis Granderson
Jayson Werth
Colby Rasmus
Ichiro
Just-Mo
C.C. Sabathia
Grady Sizemore
Ricky Nolasco
Brett Anderson
Nelson Cruz
Nick Markakis
Stephen Drew
Roto Top 100 Board (W.I.P.)
Nice toss, Brett. No, really.
J-Ro
Mat Latos
Matt Cain
Alexei Ramirez
Kendry Morales
Geovany Soto
Francisco Liriano
Aramis

What do y'all think? Who should be moved up, down, added, dropped? Leave a comment below or email me baguilera (at) gmail. Have a good weekend; there should at least be some college basketball on.

Pirates Manager: The Before Picture

Some of you may have seen this in Jason Stark's NL Central report card article. We don't agree that "when all a team does is pretty much stand pat, it's grade needs to reflect that." The Reds were a good young team. Adding unnecessary parts would only hurt them and their future buying power.

The best part of the article, for us, was how happy Clint Hurdle looks in this photo from his first press conference.

Pirates Manager: The Before Picture

Best Wishes to Clint Hurdle! He'd supposedly a wonderful man, and I hope the Pirates bring some excitement to the generation of young Steelers fans who couldn't care less about baseball.

Every manager looks happy the day he gets hired, but Jim Leyland was the last manager to have a winning season in Pittsburgh.  The Pirates have not had a winning season since 1992.

Pirates Manager: The Before Picture

Pirate fans under 18 weren't even alive for Sid Bream.

Pirates Manager: The Before Picture

MLB Bullpen Rankings

Editor's Note: These were our preseason rankings. Our updated team rankings can be found here.

Where does your team rank in our preseason rankings of every bullpen in Major League Baseball.

Off and on, the past few weeks, we looked at statistics of over 320 relief pitchers, focusing on last 3-season stats such as FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), HR/9, and K:BB ratio, plus Marcel 2011 WHIP projections. Below are our stories:


The Elite, Best of the Best
San Diego Padres
In a few years, we might look back and see a few closers come out of the 2010 and 2011 San Diego bullpens. Heath Bell is already one of the best closers in baseball, and Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson, and Ernesto Frieri are serious firemen. Tim Stauffer has transitioned from fringe starter to very good reliever over the past couple of years, and Joe Thatcher is a valuable weapon, as his 2.96 FIP over the past three seasons suggests. This team even signed Chad Qualls to potentially be their weakest link.

Oakland A's
MLB Bullpen Rankings
Billy Beane is all smiles after adding
Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour.
The A's may have the best pitching front to back in the Major Leagues. Their rotation is probably the best young rotation in baseball. The only fan bases that could really argue for overall starting pitching dominance are the Phillies and Red Sox. In the bullpen, they very well could be number one. Joey Devine had a 1.97 FIP over the past three seasons, which was best to all relievers except Phil Hughes. We had the A's near the top of our rankings even before they added Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes. Billy Beane obviously saw very talented relief pitchers undervalued this offseason and cashed in with part of his line of credit. There are nine very good relievers on this roster, and that's before we know if Rich Harden is moving into a relief role.

New York Yankees
Mariano Rivera, statistically speaking, lead all Relief Pitchers over the past three seasons with a 6.7 K:BB ratio. His 2.56 FIP, 0.59 HR/9, and 1.06 Marcel WHIP for next season aren't too shabby either. The Yankees may have the best bullpen in the Majors. Rafael Soriano has the highest expectations of any 8th inning pitcher in the world. David Robertson was excellent last season. Pedro Feliciano, Boone Logan, and Damaso Marte are good lefthanders, and Joba Chamberlain is a pretty fantastic X-factor.

Lights Out, Usually
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodger fans may think they have the best bullpen, and they may end 2011 with such status. I think they have elite relievers with Broxton and Kuo, strong arms with Guerrier, Troncoso, Belisario, and Jansen, but they lack the depth of the three teams above. John Ely may be an excellent swingman, but Broxton and Kuo need to stay healthy and they've had their moments in pain.

San Francisco Giants
MLB Bullpen Rankings
Romo looks scarier
than Brian Wilson.
Brian Wilson and his beard are transforming themselves into cult heroes, and Sergio Romo has been a revelation. He looks like a badass and has fantastic statistics to support what our scouting eyes see. This team won the World Series last year, and the bullpen certainly did their part. If they can bounce back from a 7-month season, it'll be another great summer by the Bay.

Texas Rangers
Nolan Ryan and Jon Daniels know what they're doing. Neftali Feliz may be the best closer in baseball this season, and there is still talk of making him another starter. While losing Cliff Lee hurt their rotation for the next couple of years, we'll see who takes that spot. Derek Holland will probably get a long look. Alexi Ogando is a pretty serious fireman, too.

Playoff Caliber 'Pens
Chicago White Sox
MLB Bullpen Rankings
That's Ozzie, eating Jello, and
watching Super Bowl XLV
Matt Thornton is awesome, and the Ozzie Guillen could be a bullpen savant if he actually uses him sporadically for the highest leverage situations in each game he's available. Sabermetrics have been preaching for a while, that some of the biggest outs in many games are with runners on base in the 6th and 7th innings. Having a reliever like Chad Gaudin blow the game in that situation, while your "closer" wiats for the 9th is plain silly. Of all the managers to have figured this out, wouldn't it be amazing if it was the aloof Ozzie Guillen. The incredible thing is that this Sox team doesn't even have any relievers that seem so terrible. Sergio Santos is great, Tony Peña can be downright nasty, and Jesse Crain going from the Twins to the Sox tips the scales a bit within the division.

Colorado Rockies
MLB Bullpen Rankings
Lindstrom's bringing his 100 mph
fastball to the Mile High City.
The National League West was a division everyone enjoyed following last season, and aficionados of excellent bullpenning should enjoy 2011 immensely. Four of the teams are in the top 8 of our rankings, and as we'll see below, the D'backs bullpen could also be a team strength. The Rockies are hear, not just because Huston Street is very good. They have excellent depth with guys like Franklin Morales, Matt Lindstrom, the underrated Matt Belisle, and deservedly, well-paid Rafael Betancourt.

Detroit Tigers
MLB Bullpen Rankings
Jose Valverde loves dogs!
Jim Leyland is still our favorite manager, and his use of relief pitchers is one of the top two or three reasons why. Jose Valverde is still electric and eccentric, while being less and less erratic as he's matured. Joaquin Benoit will be very good, when healthy, and I think Ryan Perry is going to become a stud almost as good as what we've seen Daniel Bard. Speaking of Daniel Bard...

Boston Red Sox
We began with the Red Sox bullpen ranked much higher, by reputation alone, but the statistics that came out of the ol' computer kept knocking them down or promoting other teams ahead of them. Still, you're ranked in the Top 10. Settle down, New England.

NL Central Meets in the Middle
St. Louis Cardinals
MLB Bullpen Rankings
Jason Motte and Kyle McClellan are outstanding setup pitchers, and Ryan Franklin has been great as their closer. Shelby Miller is their bigtime closing prospect in the minors, but he could be in The Show early this Spring.

Milwaukee Brewers
John Axford had a 2.13 FIP last season, for crying out loud. He throws very hard and is becoming a legitimate force. The reason the Brewers bullpen isn't ranked any higher is because of legitimate doubts in Latroy Hawkins and the less experienced kids they're counting on.

Chicago Cubs
I've been a pessimistic Cubs fan lately, with reason. I feel it's safe to say that at least the Reds and Brewers will finish with a better record than the Cubs. The Cardinals will likely be better, and even Pittsburgh could be much improved, placing the Cubbies in the basement, once again the floormats of the National League. If the team pleasantly surprises me the way the 2010 Bears did, it's probably because Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood, and Andrew Cashner lock down the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. The Cubs bullpen will hopefully be a silver lining to what looks like a bleak season.

Cincinnati Reds


MLB Bullpen Rankings

Love Aroldis Chapman!!!!!

NL East Coin Tosses
Florida Marlins
The Marlins are turning the corner. They have a fantastic balance of good starting pitching, exciting young hitters, and a dependable and deep bullpen that should be able to perform very well even if/when one or two players gets hurt. Edward Mujica is a big X-factor. He comes over with expectations to pitch well, but he gave up 1.51 HR/9 over the past three years, pitching for San Diego (163 ip) and Cleveland (39 ip).

Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Bullpen Rankings
Ryan Madson is ready
to close somewhere.
When you've been on-again/off-again for long stretches, the way Brad Lidge has been, it's tough to be counted on for excellence. They could potentially have one of the five best bullpens in the game, especially since they're starting rotation should keep them well rested. Ryan Madson really is a fantastic 8th inning man, one of the best in the game. The fact that Jose Contreras has seemingly been pitching since the Reagen administration also leaves doubt that the team will certainly have an outstanding bullpen. Why is Chad Durbin still a free agent?

Solidly Rebuilt
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are in transition, after losing team leaders Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Matt Garza for financial reasons. They rebuilt their lineup with clearance rack purchases of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez, but the bullpen has been the offseasons work in progress that deserves the most attention. J.P. Howell is their best pitcher, and he needs to come back healthy for this team to thrive. The rest of the names don't jump out off the page, but Joel Peralta, Adam Russell, Cesar Ramos, and Jake McGee should be solid to go with Kyle Farnsworth and maybe Andy Sonnanstine, and former cubs Chris Archer and Juan Cruz.

Atlanta Braves
The Braves are also a team in transition as they move on from Bobby Cox to the Fredi Gonzalez Regime. Fredi has always been a Bobby Cox guy, so things aren't going to change very much. They have a lot of good young arms in this bullpen, but the lack of an extensive track record has them ranked 18th out of 30. It wouldn't be surprising to see them finish in the Top 10.

Won't be Bad
Los Angeles Angels
MLB Bullpen Rankings
Jordan Walden is awesome.
Mike Scioscia has always been a manager who could handle a bullpen, but what kind of hand has he been dealt this season? Fernando Rodney has always been a favorite of ours, but he hasn't been so great lately. They have some good support in Kevin Jepsen and newcomer Hisanori Takahashi, and we love the hard-throwing Jordan Walden. He seems pretty special.

Washington Nationals
Drew Storen should become a reliable closer for years to come. Tyler Clippard has been outstanding. The Nationals process seems sound, even when probably overpaying for Jason Werth. The Nationals may have felt like they had to overpay for someone the way the Tigers had to overpay for Ivan Rodriguez to let their fans and other players know that they were serious about competing and playing big bucks for future free agents. They traded their left fielder for Henry Rodriguez, and he throws gas.

Kansas City Royals
MLB Bullpen Rankings
Joakim Soria is probably being groomed, by his agent, to be the next Mariano Rivera. Is there a Casino anywhere that will take action on who's the next full-time closer after #42 hangs them up in the Bronx? Jeremy Jeffress came over in the Zack Greinke trade. He'll likely start in the minors but could get called up to relieve if the Royals feel like trying to contend mid-year.

Minnesota Twins
It seems like every year the Twins have few players to boast about on paper, then Gardy and his staff finish with a division championship and one of the best bullpens in the league. There's been chatter that Joe Nathan may be ready for Opening Day. That would raise them in the rankings, but if Nathan needs a year to recover, his bounceback may not occur until 2012.

Toronto Blue Jays
The month of January was incredible for Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos. He pulled off the impossible Vernon Wells trade, and many Jays fans elevated AA to demigod status. The bullpen is getting better, and they were ranked a bit higher for much of this process. In the end, their expectations are lowered because Octavio Dotel hasn't really been all that in a while.

Hope is a Good Thing
Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB Bullpen Rankings
Sam Demel should bring some Value.
The D'backs could belong in the well rebuilt group. Kevin Towers is a bullpen expert, and he's already made improvements. J.J. Putz was the big offseason splash, but we're more excited to see Sam Demel, Jordan Norberto, and Juan Gutierrez dominate the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. We haven't seen them put it all together, yet, and the numbers reflect that. However, we won't be surprised if the bullpen becomes a team strength.

New York Mets
No-one knows what to expect out of K-Rod, and losing Pedro Feliciano to the crosstown Yankees was terrible for them. We feel they needed to bring him back and will regret the loss, even after adding a lefty we liked as a free agent: Chris Capuano. Bobby Parnell and Taylor Buchholz are solid, and the bullpen probably won't embarrass themselves the way they did in '07 and '08.

Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB Bullpen Rankings
Meek would be our pick for closer.
Evan Meek looks like a stud, and he makes up half of a very good 8th/9th duo with Joel Hanrahan. The Pirates also have a bunch of okay relievers who will probably get shelled, since they are now Pirates. If anyone become really effective, they could always get traded for a prospect or two. Hanrahan, Chris Resop, Jose Veras, Jose Ascanio, and newcomer Joe Beimel will all be available.

Houston Astros
Sammy Gervacio is probably the relief pitcher we are rooting for more than anyone besides Wood and Marmol. He's coming back from arm surgery, and I don't think the Astros are really counting on him too much going into camp. Unfortunately, they still have Brandon Lyon. Wilton Lopez could take the closer's job away from him. Lopez has an outstanding 6.22 K:BB ratio over the past three years. They have some depth with Marc Melancon and Fernando Abad, some decent swignmen who could relieve or start, such as Nelson Figuero and Hyphen (Ryan Rowland-Smith). If Alberto Arias keeps throwing hard and improving, he could become a 7th inning nasty boy.

Future Performance Should Improve
Cleveland Indians
Indians relievers have been hurting my fantasy baseball team ever since Joe Borowski left. I have faith in guys like Chris Perez, Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez, and even Joe Smith. The bit of research that went into this exercise kindly reminded me that although these guys "look" like good pitchers on TV, they've had some struggles. Instead of giving into the numbers, though, I still think they'll improve. Rafael Perez is awesome. Maybe they just need to get out of Cleveland, can't blame 'em.

Bullpen Cellar Dwellers
Baltimore Orioles
Current Orioles chatter is either praising their offensive lineup, after adding Vladdy Daddy, but some of us feel like it's a great lineup for 2004. We're sitting somewhere in the middle. It's actually a pretty good looking lineup: Roberts/Markakis/Reynolds/Scott/Vlad/DLee/Weiters/Jones/Hardy. Will they score enough runs to finish any better than last place in the AL East? The main issue I have with adding Vladdy Daddy is that it kills the Felix Pie/Nolan Reimold platoon. Will a good team trade for Felix Pie?

MLB Bullpen Rankings
Let Pie Play!!!
Seattle Mariners
David Aardsma is the closer, but he won't be ready for the first couple of months at least. Brandon League is pretty good, but it's too much to ask him to turn into Goose Gossage. Jack Zduriencik has invited a bunch of people to camp. There are new faces everywhere. Garrett Olson wants to start, but maybe he can blossom in the bullpen like Sean Marshall did for the Cubs. The team is expecting quality from Dan Cortes and Cesar Jimenez. Josh Lueke is a top prospect that may get used in the Major League bullpen. That strategy worked for Phil Hughes, but not Jenrry Mejia. That's why they play the games.

In summation, it brings us no joy to have the White Sox looking so strong. Bullpens are always evolving, as most teams will turnover more than 50% of their relief arms through attrition and reactions to performance. However, with Complete Games going the way of the dodo, bullpens have become more important keys to the game than they have ever been.

Super Bowl XLV Prop Pool

If you're having a little get together for the game today, or are even watching it with more than one person, you may find enjoyment in creating a quick prop pool that everyone can fill out. I've done this before for Super Bowl parties, and here's the one I drew up for this evening. All questions are worth 1 point, with a "closest without going over" tiebreaker at the end. Enjoy the game and the guacamole!

1. Duration of National Anthem?
Super Bowl XLV Prop Pool
Put me down for U1:54
_____ Over 1 minute 54 seconds
_____ Under 1 minute 54 seconds

2. Which team will win the coin toss?
_____ Green Bay Packers
_____ Pittsburgh Steelers

3. First Commercial after Kickoff will be:
_____ Bud Light
_____ Budweiser
_____ Doritos
_____ GoDaddy.com
_____ Kia
_____ Pepsi Max
_____ Skechers
_____ Teleflora
_____ Other

4. First score of the game?
_____ Touchdown
_____ Other

5. Which team will score first?
_____ Green Bay Packers
_____ Pittsburgh Steelers

6. The largest lead of the game at any time will be:
_____ Over 13.5
_____ Under 13.5

7. What will Fergie be wearing when she first appears on stage during the Halftime Show?
_____ Skirt/Dress
_____ Pants (Below Knees)
_____ Shorts (Above Knees)
_____ Thong/G-String/Bikini Bottom

Super Bowl XLV Prop Pool
What will GoDaddy do this
year to get people talking?
8. Highest Rated Commercial on USA Today Ad Meter will be:
_____ Bud Light
_____ Budweiser
_____ Doritos
_____ GoDaddy.com
_____ Kia
_____ Pepsi Max
_____ Skechers
_____ Teleflora
_____ Other

9. Which total will be higher?
_____ Packers 1st HALF POINTS
_____ LeBron James 1st HALF POINTS vs Clippers

10. Total INTERCEPTIONS thrown by both teams will be:
_____ Over 2.5
_____ Under 2.5

11. Packers total RUSHING YARDS
_____ Over 78.5
_____ Under 78.5

12. Will there be a SAFETY?
_____ YES
_____ NO

13. Which team will be winning at the end of the 3rd Quarter?
_____ Green Bay Packers
_____ Pittsburgh Steelers

14. Time on the Game Clock When the Winning Team Attempts to Dump Gatorade on Head Coach?
_____ Over 45-seconds left in 4th Quarter
_____ Under 45-seconds left in 4th Quarter

15. The Most Valuable Player (MVP) will be from which team?
_____ Green Bay Packers
_____ Pittsburgh Steelers

Tiebreaker – Closets to Total Points scored by Packers and Steelers, without going over: _____

Looker, Better than Belly Itcher

Overcoming the inertia of our humble, little blog space can often be embarrassingly challenging. We're usually lucky enough to find a few minutes each day to look into something, but finding a way to entertainingly share something here every time is not possible. We've been analyzing all thirty Major League bullpens, off and on, for the past two or three weeks, but how should we present our conclusions? Lots of stats? A list of 30 teams, ranked by our opinions of the bullpens? Count them down, or up? No worries, we'll figure something out. The rankings actually look pretty good, but I'm not sure how much work, or how many stats, to show.

An unrelated stat that we came across yesterday and wanted to mention was the hitting statistic of Walk Percentage (BB%), walks per plate appearance. We've said it mane times: hitters with good plate discipline are less susceptible to extended slumps than more aggressive hitters who care more about hitting than walking.

By now, it would be nice if we could all agree that the ability to draw a walk is about as valuable as the ability to hit the ball hard. Quick warning as we fall from the the razor's edge between docile and disputatious. The ability, or skill, to have a good eye is underrated.

In little league, back in the late '80s, kids who couldn't hit could still reach base by waiting for ball four from terrible pitchers who couldn't throw strikes. Those kids were called "lookers". If the pitchers through strikes, those kids would make outs A LOT. Being known as "a looker" was not good. Players would say, "Throw a strike, he's a looker!" at poor opposing hitters. If the pitcher couldn't throw a strike, we'd occasionally hear the classic, "We want a pitcher, not a belly itcher."

Looker, Better than Belly Itcher
I love Little League baseball.
The funny thing is that in the lesser league of the Edgebrook/Sauganash Little Leagues, lookers could actually reach base a lot.

Even back then, there were signs that people didn't care enough about on-base percentage, just getting hits and knocking in runs.

We were surprised by some of the players on this list and are interested to see your reactions:

"Active" Career BB% Leaders
Jack Cust: 17.3%
Looker, Better than Belly Itcher
Cust was a BB/HR/K machine in PDX
Jim Thome: 17.1%
Adam Dunn: 16.3%
Nick Johnson: 15.9%
Jason Giambi: 15.5%
Lance Berkman: 15.5%
Kosuke Fukudome: 14.7%
Jason Heyward: 14.6%
Chipper Jones: 14.5%
Todd Helton: 14.5%
Pat Burrell: 14.3%
Daric Barton: 14.2%
J.D. Drew: 14.1%
Looker, Better than Belly Itcher
Elijah Dukes seems pretty spontaneous
Manny Ramirez: 13.6%
Carlos Peña: 13.5%
Albert Pujols: 13.5%
Troy Glaus: 13.4%
Elijah Dukes: 13.3%
Dan Johnson: 13.3%
Jorge Posada: 13.3%
Nick Swisher: 13.2%
David Ortiz: 13.2%
Chris Iannetta: 13.1%
Prince Fielder: 13.0%

It's great to see Jack Cust comfortably ahead of everyone else on the list. If he popped a few more homers, he could be known as a leader of the 3 true outcome group where he currently resides with Adam Dunn, Jason Giambi, and Carlos Peña. Here's to more good things for Jack Cust.

As a Cubs fan, seeing Fukudome ahead of Heyward, Chipper, and Helton only inspires feelings of helplessness and doubt.

As I shared during my 5:15 AM haze, Elijah Dukes still has a good eye. How can someone like Elijah Dukes be so patient inside, and so out of control outside, of the batters box?

What do you guys think of this statistic? Anything? Can any of these guys help your rotisserie team? There are some free agents, like Glaus and Dukes, could they help your favorite team?

Last-Minute Team Off the Street

The last time we brought in some coal for the hot stove was December 29th. It's even colder here in New York the last week of January.

When we discussed the hot stove late last year, we were able to put together a pretty lousy team comprised of available free agents. The rotation was shaky, being lead by Jeff Francis, Carl Pavano, and Brad Penny, and the lineup only had one scary hitter in Adrian Beltre. The bullpen should have been better with Soriano, Fuentes, and Balfour, but really, that team would not contend. There were significant injury/age/performance issues attached to 23 or 24 players on the fake 25-man roster.

Most of the players from that last post have since been signed, and we're actually going to try it again. Before even trying this, I'm not sure there are enough free agents to even field a team.

Let's say we're in a crazy situation with MLB expansion meets Brewster's Millions.

Last-Minute Team Off the Street
"Todd Wellemeyer??? HaHaHa!!"
The last players we heard have signed were Jorge Cantu to the Padres, Todd Wellemeyer to our beloved Cubs, Clay Rapada to Baltimore, and Chris Ray to the Mariners.

Pitchers and Catchers are due to report to Spring Training in about 3 and a half weeks. ~ Whom would you sign?

It's late. Grab a coffee or a beer. While we look for diamonds in the rough, this team is going to be terrible.

SP: Freddy Garcia
Last-Minute Team Off the Street
We'd give Manny Corpas's mom
great seats to see her boy close.
SP: Justin Duchscherer
SP: Jeremy Bonderman
SP: Kevin Millwood
SP: Ben Sheets
Swing: Alfredo Aceves
Middle: Cla Meredith
Middle: Manny Delcarmen
LOOGY: Joe Beimel
Setup: Juan Cruz
Closer: Manny Corpas

C: Bengie Molina
1b: Russell Branyan
2b: Willy Aybar
Last-Minute Team Off the Street
We'd like to reunite Molina and Dye.
SS: Orlando Cabrera
3b: Troy Glaus
LF: Laynce Nix
CF: Lastings Milledge
RF: Wladimir Balentien

C: Michael Barrett
IF: Bobby Crosby
OF: Vladimir Guerrero
PH Rt: Jermaine Dye
PH Lt: Nick Johnson
Bench: Hank Blalock

Have we gone crazy with that starting outfield? Nix, Milledge, and Belentien?? At this stage in the game everyone is either risky or guaranteed to be less than good. In these cases, we go for risky. We'll go for players who have a chance to surprise us in a positive manner, as opposed to guys like Casey Kotchman or Eric Bruntlett, who've reached their unimpressive ceilings.

Joe Beimel should soon sign with one of five teams that are rumored to be actively pursuing him. From what I read, it looks like he'll either take a Minor League deal with the Red Sox or big league deal with Baltimore. Most players would ten times out of ten go with the Major League deal, but if Beimel failed to make the contending Red Sox out of Spring Training, he'd surely catch on somewhere else right away. When Beimel signs, our favorite lefty reliever remaining on the market would probably be the 40-year old Ron Mahay or Bobby Seay.

Last-Minute Team Off the Street
We still believe in you, Norris!
Most of these guys are getting spring training invites with no guarantees, if anything at all. Whom do you like? Are retreads like Mark Kotsay, Ryan Garko, or Jose Guillen better than Jermaine Dye? It may be likely. We don't really like the idea of signing players like Julio Lugo or Felipe Lopez. Young players with less baggage and some upside would probably be better than those wife beaters. On the other hand, would someone like Norris Hopper be exciting to add to Spring Training? We still think he has something to add. Brandon Jones is another relatively exciting minor league free agent outfielder. Guys flying way under the radar who can still make some noise in the big leagues are Carlos Delgado, Tommy Everidge, Travis Metcalf, and Rocco Baldelli.

So, again faithful readers, whom do you like? Who do you wish your favorite team would still sign?