Older Posts

As a professional scout told me years ago, to check which players are playing at the top of their game, all one needs to look at are stats from the past two weeks.

While Major League Baseball announces winners of Player of the Week and Player of the Month for each league, here's our take of who have been the best players over the past 14 days.

NL Batter of the Fortnight
Carlos Beltran, Cardinals
The past two weeks have shown some outstanding hitters. Beltran, Joey Votto, Aaron Hill, Ryan Braun, and even Tyler Colvin had prominent placement on different leader boards. All in all, we awarded Beltran mostly for his .540 OBP with some power.

Carlos Beltran started as a Royal. This year, he's shining on the other side of the I-70 series, with a 1.003 OPS against KC.

NL Pitcher of the Fortnight
R.A. Dickey, Mets
Was there any doubt? He leads the league with a 0.00 ERA, 1.25 xFIP, and 12.50 K/9. There's plenty to read about Dickey's recent success all over the Internet. So, let's just move on.

R.A. Dickey hasn't shaved in a long time.

AL Batter of the Fortnight
Trevor Plouffe, Twins
It's nice to see our biggest dark horse "star" from the June Swoons and Stars post producing at such a high level. The Tins third baseman is just a few points behind Ben Zobrist in wRC+ and wOBA, but Plouffe played in 3 more games and hit 6 HR's to Zobrist's 3. Another contender was Jose Bautista, who hit 7 HR's. While we aren't fans of the batting average stat, it's something when Plouffe is at .383 and Bautista's is .282.

Trevor Plouffe is one of the few bright spots for the 2012 Twins.

AL Pitcher of the Fortnight
Yu Darvish, Rangers
Two wins in two starts, a 10.7 K/9, 69.4 GB%, and league leading 2.16 xFIP wrap the award up for the year's best Japanese Import. These were his two starts against National League competition, the Astros and Padres. Maybe we should have rewarded someone with stiffer competition, like Justin Masterson or CC Sabathia.

One more interesting note on Darvish, while we're here. He's had much more success pitching to Yorvit Torrealba than Mike Napoli. Look at some of these numbers:

to Napoli: 45.3 ip, 23 ER, 16 xBH, 30 BB, 45 K, .807 OPS
to Torrealba: 43.3 ip, 11 ER, 8 xBH, 19 BB, 51 K, .556 OPS

Lots of strikeouts and ground balls make for good pitching in any language.

Faithful readers will know this is the fourth time we've looked at ballplayers with favorable prospects and are under-owned in most fantasy leagues. The first time we did this, in April 2010, we unearthed Jose Bautista and Gio Gonzalez. Last April, we singled out a few solid starting pitchers like Ivan Nova, Derek Holland, and Alexi Ogando. In August, we suggested picking up Brandon McCarthy, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Lucas Duda, and a guy who's killing it this year: Chris Capuano.

Forget about the guys who we missed on; let's accentuate the positives, as we look towards the rest of 2012...

As was the case over a year ago, together, we set sail, in search of rare finds that may help any fantasy baseball squad.

We used to average Yahoo and ESPN ownership numbers for this exercise, but ESPN has become so terrible that we're just using the ownership % in Yahoo leagues.

Trevor Bauer, SP, Diamondbacks (19%)
The uber prospect with twitter handle "@BauerOutage" has yet to pitch in the MAjor Leagues, but his minor league numbers have been so fantastic that he should be owned in more fantasy leagues. In 111 minor league innings the past calendar year, he has given up 95 hits, with 147 strikeouts. His only warts are the 54 walks, but some of that could be due to his attempts to paint the corners when bored by his competition. In fact, just this season, his BB/9 dropped from 4.84 in Double-A to 3.89 after his promotion to Triple-A. Equally as important to the recommendation are the recent statements by people around the D'backs that he will be called up "soon". After all, Joe Saunders isn't going to block him.

Yonder Alonso, 1b/OF, Padres (18%)
One of our all-time faovrites, Alonso has been streaky. He started off slowly, had a good May, struggled in June, and is ripe for another bounce-back. Here are his monthly slash lines:

April 2012: .253/.329/.347
May 2012: .298/.381/.413
June 2012: .175/.217/.246

Due to his minor league success as a prospect, we expect his future production to resemble that of May's more than April or June.

Yonder's ready to keep producing, we think, MAYBE

Jon Jay, OF, Cardinals (17%)
The Cardinals' outfielder is scheduled to start his minor league rehab assignment right now. So, his return to the big league club is eminent. Skip Schumaker just hit the DL, which adds to the need for his services in St. Louis. While he hardly played this year before hurting his shoulder, Jay hit the DL with a .347 batting average, 2 home runs, and 4 stolen bases. Upon his return, continued balanced production could be expected.

Joaquin Benoit, RP, Tigers (16%)
The current closer in Detroit, Jose Valverde has struggled and could be on his way to the Disabled List. As almost everyone searches for Saves, why not take the guy who's next in line, while posting an ERA that is less than twice as high as Valverde's?

Jerome Williams, SP, Angels (15%)
Hey, what's a little breathing difficulty among friends?

Considering that Jerome Williams will likely be okay from the impediment that forced him out of his last start, he hasn't been a terrible fantasy pitcher.

In fact, Jerome Williams has been a good spot starter and has, at least, been really effective at home, as his 5-2 record, 3.50 ERA and 32:8 K:BB ratio suggest.

Homer Bailey, SP, Reds (14%)
There are times, like these, when our selections are due to a lack of options. Homer Bailey may be a guy to let roam the waiver wire, but out of the 14% owned players on Yahoo's free agent board, he's the bell of the ball. His pedigree is good enough that scouts have been waiting for his breakout for years. Not just that, his last outing was spectacular, and under the bright lights of New York, as he faced the Mets at Citi Field.

Steve Cishek, RP, Marlins (13%)
He's not really under the radar, since his ERA is under 2.00. More importantly, his manager Ozzie Guillen has shown him respect and used him in higher leverage situations. Although Heath Bell has done an excellent job of hanging on to his closer duties, Steve Cishek should be able to continue succeeding in any role.

Anthony Rizzo, 1b, Cubs (12%)
The Cubs' number one prospect is due up in the big leagues any day now. He really could be up in Chicago. Get on this train now, folks, he really will be called up any day now and not available in many leagues shortly thereafter.

Rajai Davis, OF, Blue Jays (11%)
Davis is traditionally a one-category star. He's getting playing time now, while Adam Lind and a few other people blow off some steam. Good for Rajai.

Rajai Davis is a thief!

As we get later in the evening, and my drowsiness begins to take over, let's eliminate the visions of people reading the comments for our next ten selections and move to the lightning round:

David Murphy, OF, Rangers (10%)
Sean Rodriguez, 2b,3b,SS, Rays (9%)
Daniel Nava, OF, Red Sox (8%)
Salvador Perez, C, Royals (7%)
Everth Cabrera, 2b/SS, Padres (6%)
Alex Cobb, SP, Rays (5%)
Mitchell Boggs, RP, Cardinals (4%)
Will Venable, OF, Padres (3%)
Andrew Cashner, SP, Padres (2%)
Charlie Furbush, RP, Mariners (1%)
Lucas Luetge, RP, Mariners (0%)

How about that unheralded Mariners bullpen, at the 1% and 0% marks? As usual, feel free to comment or tweet any suggestions.

The new playoff format gives more teams hopes of making the postseason, which decreases the number of sellers at the trading deadline. If there is a silver lining for truly terrible teams, like the Cubs and Twins, it's that the laws of supply and demand are in their favor now more than in years past.

The supply of available trade targets goes down a lot, demand increases a bit, and voilà - this year's sellers will fetch more when trading veterans to contenders.


Taking a look at the standings, it appears that all ten teams in the Eastern divisions of both leagues will either be buyers, or at least stand pat. If the Phillies become sellers, Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino, in particular, will change everything.

While Detroit's playoff chances are dwindling, sitting 5 games under .500, it's a good bet that they will keep pushing until they're mathematically eliminated.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is two games over .500, but one can't expect them to continue to perform at a competent level much longer. They were in first place on July 19th last season and still finished 24 games behind the division champion Brewers. Speaking of the Brewers, they are very much like the Tigers and Phillies, in that they had high expectations for the season, are under delivering, but can't be expected to waiver the white flag before the tarding deadline, 53 days from now.

Some surprisingly competitive teams, like the Orioles and Mets, may stand pat - hoping the experience of a pennant race will be more valuable for their young players than bowing out of the race or mortgaging any part of the future.

The likely sellers this year appear to be the Astros, Athletics, Cubs, Mariners, Padres, Pirates, Rockies, Royals, and Twins. Let's see what the best they have to offer look like, broken down by position:

Starting Pitchers
Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
Due to make $13.5M next season, and again in 2014 - with a $2.5M buyout, WayRod is more than a rental player. Some around the game feel he's overpaid, while other teams have shown interest. Most whispers say he could be a good fit in the Bronx, as the Yankees need lefties who can help neutralize their short porch in right against opposing left-handed hitters.

Bartolo Colon, A's
Only makes $2M this year, on a 1-year deal, and he's pitching well in the American League. His last outing shut down the Rangers, so more teams are presumably moving him up on their trade board.

Matt Garza, Cubs
Ryan Dempster, Cubs
The two best trade chips the Cubs have are their top two starting pitchers. Garza has one more year of team control, with his final season of arbitration coming up, and a higher historical level of performance. So, he'll be more costly to acquire. Perhaps the Cubs could dangle Garza to engage interested parties in conversation, then pull the ol' bait and switch.

Kevin Millwood, Mariners
The veteran right-hander can pound the strike zone and eat innings, while keeping good teams in the game. Sometimes, that's all a contender is looking for. He certainly wouldn't cost much, in terms of prospects, to acquire.

Erik Bedard, Pirates
He still performs a bit better than league average, and is left-handed. Just like with every season since 2008, if he can stay healthy, he will be a trade target. While making $4.5M this year, free agency awaits after the season.

Jeremy Guthrie, Rockies
An opening day starter pitching like a DFA candidate shouldn't be on any contender's wish list, but there is still time to rebound. If he can string together a few good starts in a row, someone may look to pickup his expiring contract.

Francisco Liriano, Twins
Since returning to the rotation on May 30th, Liriano has thrown a couple of good outings. Sentimental Twins fans will likely to see Liriano go, but if he fetches something good before free agency takes him away, they oughta take what they can get. Few players in baseball have experienced the duality of strikes and gutters as much as Liriano.

Liriano looked good on June 5th. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Relief Pitchers
Brett Myers, Astros
He has an interesting vesting option based on games finished, that he negotiated when converted to closer this year. Funny thing is, he could be traded somewhere and made a set-up man.

Brandon Lyon, Astros
Free agent at the end of the year, surprisingly has performed well this season: 2.31 ERA, 3.83 K/BB. Buyer beware, last season's WHIP was double this seasons: 2.40 to 1.20.

Brian Fuentes, A's
Grant Balfour, A's
The back end of the A's bullpen will be looked at by scouts of all contending teams, as they have pretty good relievers, with 2013 club otions, who throw from each side.

Carlos Marmol, Cubs
A guy who misses bats is attractive, but lately he's been missing the strike zone much too regularly. Owed $9.8M for next season, he'll need to regain his value with improved performance before anyone calls Jed Hoyer about him.

Brandon League, Mariners
The season before free agency is not a good time to lose the ability to post high ground ball rates or throw strikes. He's been awful this year, and lost the closer's role to Tom Wilhemsen. Still, he may be able to rebound in lower leverage situations and some team would look to acquire him.

Huston Street, Padres
He's coming off an injury, but if he remains steady, someone will want to acquire the closer with a long track record of success.

Juan Cruz, Pirates
His WHIP is unsightly, at 1.594, but with a 2.11 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and team-friendly 1-yr deal, he could be an inexpensive trade target.

Jonathan Broxton, Royals
Unless Jonathan Sanchez comes back from biceps tendinitis to pitch effectively before the trading deadline (unlikely), the Royals probably won't have anyone to deal other than Broxton. The big man has rebounded from his lousy exit in Los Angeles, with 14 saves and a sparkling 1.59 ERA. Buyer beware, however, as he has stopped striking guys out, as his 5.6 K/9 reflects.

Matt Capps is overrated by the Save stat, but his 0.985 WHIP could draw interest. Savvy GM's will take note that he's not striking guys out, and gambling on a guy with a .232 BABiP could be a losing proposition.

If his arm remains intact, Huston Street can be a difference maker down the stretch. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)

First Basemen/Corner OF/DH
Carlos Lee, Astros
El caballo fits best as a DH. When his injured hammy heals, and he returns from the DL, expect to see American League scouts checking him out.

Jonny Gomes, A's
He's always been good against lefties, and is on a team-friendly 1-yr/$1M deal.

Seth Smith, A's
Adjusting to the American League hasn't negatively affected his .354 OBP. Smith is an interesting non-tender candidate because he's been a productive player, but his arbitration salary may exceed his worth.

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
He's owed $38M for the next two seasons, not to mention the rest of his 2012 $19M salary. Plus, aside from the occasional homerun, he stinks. He will likely be in Wrigley Feild for at least another calendar year.

Bryan LaHair, Cubs
He makes the league minimum, but is 29-years old, can't really play anywhere other than first base, and is blocking the Cubs' best prospect Anthony Rizzo. LaHair has certainly cooled off from his incredible April, but he's shown to be an above average hitter who could fetch a decent prospect.

Carlos Quentin, Padres
Buster Olney has been all over Quentin's hot start, speculating as to where he may land. He listed at least eight teams that could be aggressive in their pursuit of the power hitter, with Atlanta and Cincinnati likely leading the charge. Quentin could be the best available bat in the trade market.

Mark Kotsay, Padres
He's an inexpensive bench bat who can pinch hit, play the outfield, or first base. Notably, Kotsay's career slash line: .278/.335/.410 pales in comparison to his career line as a pinch hitter: .301/.346/.436.

Jason Giambi, Rockies
The most likely Rocky to get traded is the Giambino, who has transformed himself into a solid backup first baseman and pinch hitter. Granted it's a small sample size, but as a pinch hitter this season, he is 5 for 13, with a home run, and .500 OBP.

Ryan Doumit, Twins
He signed a one-year deal with Minnesota, gave up catching, but has not really hit with any authority. Maybe it's taking him a while to adjust to the new league, but regardless, he's just not getting it done for a player who can't contribute with his glove.

Finding a taker for Alfonso Soriano would be a dream come true for Cubs fans. (Photo by Scott Boehm/Getty Images)

Middle Infielders
Starlin Castro, Cubs
The 22-years old hit machine will likely be too expensive for any level-headed GM to acquire.

Brendan Ryan, Mariners
The defensive specialist has already been speculated to go to the Tigers, who have the worst defense in the league.

Clint Barmes, Pirates
Sporting a .213 OBP and owed $5.5M for next season makes Barmes undesirable.

Marco Scutaro, Rockies
Scutaro hasn't been able to match his production from Boston or Toronto in Colorado, but when you consider the other middle infielders on this list, a contender may give him a chance to be revitalized in a pennant race.

While extremely young and talented, Castro's flaws make him available. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images)

Third Basemen
Jeff Baker, Cubs
Another platoon player, who can hit lefties, Baker can be viewed as an alternative to Jonny Gomes. He probably does not hit as well as Gomes, but he offers more defensive versatility - especially if he can be adequate at second or third base.

Chase Headley, Padres
With a couple more years of arbitration ahead of him, this steady hitter and good defender may be too expensive to acquire.

Centerielders
Reed Johnson, Cubs
Unless someone thinks Mark Kotsay can play CF again, this is the only guys we found on our list of sellers. Make no mistake, although some teams think he's an adequate 4th Outfielder, Reed Johnson is terrible. As a batter, Ian Kennedy has as many walks as Reed Johnson this season, and one more walk than him over the past three seasons.

Catchers
Miguel Olivo, Mariners
The well-traveled veteran make $3.75M this year, with a club otion or $750K buyout for next. He handles pitchers well and has some pop.

Rod Barajas, Pirates
At this point in his career, Barajas is not much better than a replacement player: -0.2 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR.

So, what have we learned? Did we leave anyone out? Which players would you like your team to acquire or hang on to? As a Cubs fan, it feels good to be out there with Dempster and Garza, as two of the most valuable players who could be moved.

If the Phillies become sellers, Cole Hamels would be the belle of the ball. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

The grammar police are taking the night off. There's not much form here, just free flowing notes I took down during the first night of the 2012 Rule 4 Draft.

Great moment for Houston

The rumors of Carlos Correa potentially dropping to the Cubs at #6 were greatly exaggerated.

Mark Appel getting abused by his college coach, Mark Marquess, didn't help.

This feels like a great moment for the Twins. They wanted Buxton.

How far will Appel drop? The Mariners need hitting. I'd expect the Orioles to take him, as they always need more pitching.

Byron Buxton: "I'm glad I'm a Twins now."

Mike Zunino, catcher from U of Florida to Seattle. Makes sense. Leader behind the plate and very good hitter.

The O's are up, then KC, then my Cubbies... Starting to get nervous.


Wow, Kevin Gausman over Mark Appel! While some people are whispering about his signability, I feel more like this drop must be due to concerns over Appel's wear and tear.

Royals take Kyle Zimmer, RHP from the University of San Francisco. Holy crap! What if the Cubs take Appel over Albert Almora. As a fan, I would not like that. He's slipping and the Cubs don't need anyone with question marks, picking 6th in the midst of a 105-year Championship drought.

Almora to the Cubbies

Phew, thank goodness, the Cubs took Albert Almora. That's a relief. He's not at the level of someone like Matt Kemp, but he could develop into someone like Adam Jones, or hopefully better.

Max Fried, LHP to the Padres. Hmm, they always need hitting and can't attract free agents to that ballpark. Conversely, plenty of pitchers would love to induce fly balls at Petco.

Again, Appel drops...

Appel to the Pirates at #8. We're only hearing the drop is due to signability, not the fact that his coach, Jim Riggleman, err Mark Marquess, had him throw over 140 and 120 pitches in games this Spring.

Andrew Heaney to the Marlins. A LHP should help that club. Plus, the TV guys are projecting him to be a guy who could help out as a LOOGY right away. If they're in the race, he could be a late-August, or Spetember, call-up. Ozzie Guillen was the manager in Chicago, when the White Sox called up Chris Sale in the same situation.

Courtney Hawkins sporting Sammy Sosa hair shave lines, nice look. He just did a back flip without warming up. I'm not even a White Sox fan, and I was nervous that he would hurt his back pulling off a stunt like that while ice cold and wearing business attire.

Harold Reynolds is really bad. He has been contradicting himself in mid-sentence, starting off with one point of view and ending the sentence with the opposite opinion. It's like he has dementia, or something. Still, we should be careful what we wish for. MLB Network still employs Mitch Williams, Dan Plesac, and Kevin Millar.

If I may humblebrag for a second, I'm really pleased that I called the Giolito pick by the Nationals. I fealt lke they are the best up-and-coming team in the Major Leagues, and they can take the risk of this guy with a questionable elbow. He's only 17, and even if he needs surgery, which is unlikely at this point, he should be fine in a few years. He has top of the draft talent and could help the Nationals dominate the NL East in the middle of this decade.

Cory Seager seems like a move the Dodgers would make. They probably lead the league in Major League legacies with a 40-man roster that includes Tony Gwynn, Jr., Scott Van Slyke, Dee Gordon, Ivan de Jesus, Jerry Hairston, Jr. I think I'm missing someone. Anyway, as most of you know, Cory's brother Kyle is on the Mariners.

Bud Selig: "The San Francisco Giants select Chris Stratton, from Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi." What a buffoon. At times, I feel like Bill Hader, of Saturday Night Live, is doing his best Selig spoof up there.

Stroman should be a fast riser

Marcus Stroman video clips show him end his pitches in a terrible fielding position. He's walking towards the 2nd baseman, expecting a strikeout before the ump calls it. That should be corrected, and he looks like he's got good stuff. People are divided as to whether he's a starter or reliever.

Cardinals' pick at #23, James Ramsey's comp is Skip Schumaker. The studio host, Greg Amsinger, says "Ichiro meets Dustin Ackley." I don't even know what that means. Then, Peter Gammons says he gets compared to Tim Tebow. Oh, god.

The unintentional comedy is through the roof. Did you see that ad for the Chore Buddy? It's a device that reminds you to take out the garbage. I mean, really, is it that difficult to remember? And, if so, aren't there other remedies already at your disposal? Can't you set your cell phone alarm? We need Joe Posnanski's take on this one.

Devin Marrero, ASU shortstop to the Red Sox. Good glove, poor stick. Comp is Stephen Drew, who's a better hitter than fielder. So, that's a comp fail. Hearing the guys in studio, it sounds like the Red Sox drafted a goalie.

Last pick of the first round, Brian Johnson to the Red Sox at #31, sounds terrible. Bad stats, and his highlight reel lacks, um, highlights. His player comp is Joe Saunders, who stinks. Johnson could get better, if he ignores hitting to focus on pitching. The best I'd see him become is a #4 starter or decent LOOGY.

Kevin Plawecki, at #35 to the Mets, sounds really good. A catcher with a high BA, outstanding contact skills, and looks like he has a projectable power body.

Stephen Piscotty looks pretty good, too (Cardinals #36).

Joey Gallo, great power, needs better contact, should be good value for the Rangers at #39. If he makes it to the big leagues, his ballpark will obviously help.

Along with Giolito at #16, McCullers at #41 could be the steal of the draft.

Jeff Luhnow is owning this draft. At #41, they take Lance McCullers, Jr., someone who was being looked at in the early 20's. They'll need to sign him, though, as it sounds that they won't get another compensation pick next year if he goes to Florida.

With their second pick of the night, the Cubs take Pierce  Johnson, a RHP, Missouri State. Got a plus FB and plus CB. Player comp: Drew Storen doesn't sound right, since Storen was picked around 15th in a better draft.

To the Pirates at #45 is Barrett Barnes. His player comp is Marlon Byrd. I'd be so pissed if I were him, or a Pirates fan.

The MLB Network comps Keon Barnum with Ryan Howard. It looks like them mean RyHo minus 50 lbs.

Jose Valentin's son, Jesmuel, was drafted by the Dodgers at #51. Interesting if he will sign or attend LSU.

At #54, the Phillies took a guy with a 3.96 GPA. He'll have nothing in common with Jonathan Papelbon.

Walker Weickel has an 89 mph fastball, and comped with Jered Weaver. No way.

Paul Blackburn is a 6'2" RHP committed to ASU. He may not sign with the Cubs, but the Cubs are more attractive than the average team. Just as Theo Epstein.

Steve Bean sounds and looks like a hick. If he drinks and drives, he'll be perfect for the hay seed Cardinals.

For the Cubs fans who've made it this far, let's end with a few notes on the three players they selected, via the Chicago Tribune...

Albert Almora

In the team's words: "He can be a pretty impactful offensive player. … He's a guy who pretty early became a target for us.'' — Jason McLeod, senior vice president player development/scouting.

Pierce  Johnson

The skinny: Johnson has two plus-pitches with a mid-90s fastball and a plus breaking ball... he could move quicker if he's used as a reliever.

Paul Blackburn

The skinny: A Northern California high schooler who shot up the draft rankings with a strong senior season, Blackburn has a fastball that sits in the low-90s. That's his best pitch now, but his curveball and changeup show promise, making scouts dream of a three-pitch package that will allow him to start. He's a good athlete with a clean delivery. He shows advanced feel and poise for a high school pitcher. He reportedly had been targeted by the Yankees.

The quantitative bounties found in Fangraphs linear weights help us understand most of the who, what, how, or why certain things happen on the field. It is important to remember that pitch values are not a predictive stat. They value what occurred on the field, as a result of specific pitches thrown but should not be used to attempt to predict the future. In the game of trying to guess what will happen, from a pitching standpoint, we suggest looking at players' SIERA or xFIP, as ERA predictors, or their K/BB ratio in a simpler sense.

Without further ado, as of the morning of June 3rd, here are the pitchers with the best "stuff" of the season, by Fangraphs pitch type linear weights.


Best Fastball (wFB)
Jered Weaver, Angels: 12.8
Jake Peavy, White Sox: 11.8
Lance Lynn, Cardinals: 11.7
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 11.4
Aroldis Chapman, Reds: 10.6

Aroldis Chapman's fastball is taking MLB by storm.

Best Slider (wSL)
Tommy Hanson, Braves: 8.8
Craig Stammen, Nationals: 6.9
Kyle Lohse, Cardinals: 6.8
Yovani Gallardo, Brewers: 6.6
Bronson Arroyo, Reds: 6.5

Best Cut Fastball (wCT)
Scott Atchison, Red Sox: 7.3
Carlos Zambrano, Marlins: 6.3
Tommy Hunter, Orioles: 5.4
Luke Hochevar, Royals: 4.6
Scott Feldman, Rangers: 4.3

Best Curveball (wCB)
Tim Collins, Royals: 6.7
Brad Lincoln, Pirates: 6
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 4.9
Gio Gonzalez, Nationals: 4.7
Erik Bedard, Pirates: 4.5

The biggest surprise of this exercise is seeing who had the best Curveball.

Best Change Up (wCH)
Cole Hamels, Phillies: 7.7
Ricky Romero, Blue Jays: 7.2
Anibal Sanchez, Marlins: 6.9
Bruce Chen, Royals: 6.7
Tommy Milone, Athletics: 5.9

Best Split Finger (wSF)
Jose Arredondo, Reds: 8
Jeff Samardzija, Cubs: 4.6
Ricky Nolasco, Marlins: 4.3
Carlos Zambrano, Marlins: 4
Dan Haren, Angels: 3.8

The Angels never should have let Jose Arredondo leave the O.C.

Best Single Pitch
Jered Weaver, Angels: 12.8 FB
Jake Peavy, White Sox: 11.8 FB
Lance Lynn, Cardinals: 11.7 FB
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 11.4 FB
Aroldis Chapman, Reds: 10.6 FB
C.J. Wilson, Angels: 10.4 FB
Gio Gonzalez, Nationals: 10.2 FB
Ernesto Frieri, SD/LAA: 9.7 FB
Brandon Beachy, Braves: 9.2 FB
David Price, Rays: 8.9 FB
Tommy Hanson, Braves: 8.8 SL

We had to keep going, just to see what pitch other than a four-seam fastball, would get someone on the list. Tommy Hanson's slider checked in as the 11th most valuable pitch of the first two months of the 2012 season.

Tommy Hanson's slider is currently the most successful breaking ball.

Best Two (2) Pitches
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 16.3 FB/CB
Jered Weaver, Angels: 15.9 FB/CH
Jake Peavy, White Sox: 15.4 FB/SL
Gio Gonzalez, Nationals: 14.9 FB/CB
Aroldis Chapman, Reds: 12.8 FB/SL
Lance Lynn, Cardinals: 12.8 FB/CH
David Price, Rays: 12.2 FB/CH
Brandon Beachy, Braves: 12 FB/SL
C.J. Wilson, Angels: 11.8 FB/CH
James McDonald, Pirates: 11.3 FB/SL

Best Three (3) Pitches
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 18 FB/CB/SL
Jake Peavy, White Sox: 17.2 FB/SL/CT
Gio Gonzalez, Nationals: 16.6 FB/CB/CH
James McDonald, Pirates: 15.8 FB/SL/CB
Jered Weaver, Angels: 15.1 FB/CH/CB
Brandon Beachy, Braves: 13.3 FB/SL/CH
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 13.3 FB/SL/CB
C.J. Wilson, Angels: 13.1 FB/CH/CB
David Price, Rays: 12.7 FB/CH/CB
Lance Lynn, Cardinals: 12.1 FB/CH/SL

Brandon Beachy leads the NL in ERA, by mixing in four quality pitches.

Best Four (4) Pitches
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 18 FB/CB/SL/CH
Jake Peavy, White Sox: 17.2 FB/SL/CT/CH
James McDonald, Pirates: 15.8 FB/SL/CB/CH
Jered Weaver, Angels: 15.1 FB/CH/CB/SL
Brandon Beachy, Braves: 13.3 FB/SL/CH/CB
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 13.3 FB/SL/CB/CH
C.J. Wilson, Angels: 13.1 FB/CH/CB/SL
Anibal Sanchez, Marlins: 11.3 CH/FB/SL/CB
Chris Capuano, Dodgers: 10.8 FB/CH/CB/SL
Matt Cain, Giants: 10.6 SL/FB/CH/CB

Total Weighted Value of All Pitches
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 18.3
Gio Gonzalez, Nationals: 16.6
James McDonald, Pirates: 15.9
Jered Weaver, Angels: 14.6
Jake Peavy, White Sox: 14.6
Brandon Beachy, Braves: 14.4
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 12.9
Aroldis Chapman, Reds: 12.8
Chris Sale, White Sox: 11.9
Anibal Sanchez, Marlins: 11.3
Johan Santana, Mets: 11.3

Aroldis Chapman getting this much value out of his fastball and slider, out of the bullpen is truly remarkable. While Dusty Baker doesn't seem to think he's ready to start a game for the Cincinnati Reds, he should start the All Star Game for the National League.

Knowing James McDonald is 3rd in this category ought to get you a Cliff Claven little-known-fact award at your local pub.

With a WHIP under 1.00, McDonald should be an All-Star

It's June 1st, and that can mean many things. for one: regression. Below are a couple of arrangements of players, as squads, whose April/May performances stand out from the norm.


Potential June Swoons
C: Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
We like Chooch, but batting 106 points above what his career batting average was entering the season cannot be sustained.

1b: Chris Davis, Orioles
A career low 4.5 BB% is not a good sign, as this 3 true outcome batter looks more like a 2 true outcome player.

2b: Robert Andino, Orioles
The wheels are coming off the Orioles' bandwagon, and the right side of the infield will likely be a reason why. Much like their 1st baseman, Andino's BABIP is too high and his walk rate is too low.

SS: Starlin Castro, Cubs
The Cubs have spent lifetimes perfecting the June Swoon. Call it a hunch, but I don't think the emotional, 22-year old Castro will respond well to rumors that he's not "untouchable".

3b: Chris Johnson, Astros
CJ seems like a bright guy. So, why is he so averse to being a patient hitter and taking walks? He's been able to sustain decent line-drive rates, with some power, over his career, but walking just 4% of the time isn't helping the ball club.

LF: Melky Cabrera, Giants
The Melkman will have to hit the way he hit in May for another 3 years before we become true believers.

CF: Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Mets
29.8 K% and a league high .425 BABiP are a bad combination.

RF: Mark Trumbo, Angels
Coming into this season, with 589 MLB plate appearances, he had a Career .287 OBP. During his Minor League career, across 3,069 PA's, his OBP was .330. His OBP this season is .396, fueled by an equally unsustainable .396 BABiP.

SP: Jeremy Hellickson, Rays
The Rays are an excellent defensive club, but Hellickson doesn't strike enough guys out to keep his ERA under 3.00, especially as he has stranded 83% of baserunners so far this season.

RP: Jim Johnson, Orioles
Oh, to be an Orioles fan in April. Look at a few numbers for the O's closer: 5.91 K/9, 100% LOB%, 0.84 ERA, 3.77 FIP

Angels fans should hope Howie Kendrick's hot streak coincides with Trumbo's inevitable drop.

The flip-side of this coin features refreshing optimism.

Potential June Stars
C: Brian McCann, Braves
He walks more than he strikes out. So, unless he's more injured than he's letting on, he won't be struggling for much longer.

1b: Eric Hosmer, Royals
Easy choice: Hosmer has cut down his strikeouts and increased his walks from last season, and his BABiP is a measly .208.

2b: Ben Zobrist, Rays
Another victim of BABiP irregularities (.218), Zobrist is still hitting line drives and taking walks. The Rays will be rewarded for their patience.

SS: Jose Reyes, Marlins
Had Troy Tulowitzki not injured his groin last night, we probably would have selected him to go on one of his incredible hot streaks. Alas, Jose Reyes has many indicators pointing in his favor. He is walking more than he strikes out, with career high walk and line drive rates, accompanying his career low fly ball and IFFB rates.

3b: Trevor Plouffe, Twins
The answer to the trivia question "Which Major League player with at least 110 plate appearances has the lowest BABiP?" is Trevor Plouffe, and it's not even close. His .155 BABiP is a far cry from Ryan RAburn's .193 in 2nd place. Every cloud has a silver lining. Why can't the Twins? Plouffe has hit too few line drives and too many fly balls, but they are off his career norms. With a little luck, he'll approach the performance level that allowed him to post a fantastic .437 wOBA in AAA last season.

LF: Coco Crisp, Athletics
Coco just has too much speed to post a .205 BABiP for much longer. His stats have struggled from returning too soon off a DL stint. He refused a minor league rehab assignment and reached base just once in his first 21 plate appearances.

CF: Shane Victorino, Phillies
It should just be a matter of time until the Flyin' Hawaiian gets a contract season hot streak going. His peripherals are strong, the motivation is there, and he still plays more than half of his game in hitters' parks.

RF: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
At first glance, I considered that Bautista's .210 BABiP could be due to a high number of fly balls. To the contrary, he's hitting fewer fly balls than he has since 2009. His line drive rate is currently the highest since a 9-game cup of coffee with the Pirates in 2005.

SP: Zack Greinke, Brewers
With an ERA hovering around 3.5 and a FIP near 2.00, Zack Greinke should ride his 9.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 to a nice June. That is, if the Brewers defense could support him a bit better than a .368 BABiP, and he's not too badly affected when his 0.28 HR/9 regresses to the mean (Career: 0.89 HR/9)

RP: Esmil Rogers, Rockies
The Rockies relief pitcher walks too many guys (6.7 BB/9), but he also has 11K/9 and a 51% GB%. There are rumblings that Rogers could replace Jamie Moyer in the Rockies' rotation. If he can stay with the big league club, we should expect his 7.83 ERA to tumble through a solid month.

Esmil Rogers is ready to pounce this Summer and improve his results.

We did this a few times last year, and it seems to have fairly decent predictive qualities for future success.

We are looking at which pitchers have the largest discrepancy between their fastball and change-up average velocities.

For our sample size, we are taking all pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings this season and thrown their change-up at least 8% of the time. Sure, that is an arbitrary number, but I feel like if someone throws 100 pitches in about 8 innings of work, they should at least throw the change-up, on average, once per inning.

According to Fangraphs, this left us with a sample of 152 pitchers.

National League
Marco Estrada, Brewers 90.6 - 76.8 = 13.8
Erik Bedard, Pirates 89.1 - 75.9 = 13.2
Craig Breslow, Diamondbacks 90.6 - 77.9 = 12.7
Tyler Clippard, Nationals 92.8 - 81.6 = 11.2
Brandon Beachy, Braves 91 - 80 = 11
Johan Santana, Mets 88.4 - 77.8 = 10.6
Chris Capuano, Dodgers 88 - 77.8 = 10.2
Edinson Volquez, Padres 93.6 - 83.4 = 10.2
Andrew Cashner, Padres 98.7 - 88.6 = 10.1
Wade Miley, Diamondbacks 91.1 - 81 = 10.1

Even after losing more than a few ticks to his fastball, Johan Santana changes speed like a master. (Photo by Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)

***
American League
Fernando Rodney, Rays 95.2 - 81.7 = 13.5
Clay Buchholz, Red Sox 92 - 79 = 13
Kelvin Herrera, Royals 98.9 - 87.2 = 11.7
Alfredo Aceves, Red Sox 94.5 - 83.1 = 11.4
Jeremy Hellickson, Rays 90.7 - 79.4 = 11.3
Nate Jones, White Sox 97 - 85.9 = 11.1
Jarrod Parker, Athletics 91.8 - 80.7 = 11.1
David Price, Rays 94.9 - 83.9 = 11
P.J. Walters, Twins 88.9 - 78.3 = 10.6
Luis Mendoza, Royals 92.5 - 82.8 = 9.7

With a 7.19 ERA, don't expect to find Clay Buchholz on many more statistical leaderboards. (Photo by Jim Rogash / Getty Images)

It started this morning. Checking out a few things on leaderboards, I noticed that Jamie Moyer, a personal favorite, had an unsightly 1.75 WHIP. Yet, his BB/9 was a better than average 3.14. Naturally, his H/9 was going to be bad. How bad? The worst among ERA qualifiers: 12.6 H/9 ip. Checking to see what score lead the category in this young season, I saw Gio Gonzalez leads the league with a 5.3 H/9.

I'm taking this opportunity to look for other Best and Worst from certain stats that will hopefully raise an eyebrow or two. I'm not just going to say so-and-so has the highest whatever and so-and-so has the lowest. Let's look for something surprising, or as Neal Page would say, mildly amusing.

Without further ado, we present our first ever Best and Worst:

All stats through May 24, 2012 and exclude non-qualifiers...

Batting
K%: Carlos Lee 5.2% and Pedro Alvarez 35.9%

RBI: Josh Hamilton 49 and Marco Scutaro 4

BB/K: Jose Reyes 1.71 and Clint Barmes .05

O-swing%: Jed Lowrie 16.7% and Clint Barmes 48.6%

Contact %: Marco Scutaro 94.6% and Adam Dunn 65.3%

WPA: Joey Votto 3.24 and Nick Hundley -1.85

OPS: Josh Hamilton (Rangers center fielder) 1.187 and Marlon Byrd (former Rangers center fielder) .477

wOBA: Josh Hamilton .490* and Marlon Byrd .200

*Yes, Josh Hamilton's wOBA is higher than Marlon Byrd's OPS.

Clint Barmes swings at 49% of balls outside the strikezone and has 7 RBI

Pitching
K/BB: Matt Cain 6.20 and Ubaldo Jimenez 0.79

HR/9: Jamie Garcia .15 and Phil Hughes 2.09

IFFB%: Justin Verlander 20.8% and Charlie Morton 0.0%*

*Charlie Morton really needs to induce a pop up.

wFB/C: Jered Weaver 1.95 and Jamie Moyer -4.25

F-Strike%: Jordan Zimmermann 69.9% and Yovani Gallardo 49.1%

SwStr%: Cole Hamels 13.0% and Henderson Alvarez 4.0%

xFIP: Zack Greinke 2.36 and Ubaldo Jimenez 5.76

WPA: Justin Verlander 2.09 and Tim Lincecum -2.07

We didn't mean to pile onto Marlon Byrd and Ubaldo Jimenez. They've earned their place. How about Tim Lincecum having the worst WPA of all qualified starting pitchers? Make some bar bets with that one, and you should be able to drink free all night.

Tim Lincecum must turn it up a notch to improve his Win Probability Added

All stats courtesy of Fangraphs.