BAseball Reality Tour

Jesus Montero in the Tools of Ignorance

2012-02-14T16:39:00.000-05:00

Yahoo posted this AP picture on their site from yesterday:

Mariners fans, and Jesus Montero fantasy owners,
hope he protects his bare hand on defense.

There was no corresponding story on yahoo, but at least we see Jesus Montero hasn't completely given up catching.

How can this guy not stick, at least for a few years, at the catcher position? Jesus Montero won't turn 23-years old until November. He is listed at 6'4" 225 pounds. He looks every bit a World Class hitter. Yet, we are to understand that he cannot catch as well as guys like Jorge Posada or Mike Napoli?

On the other hand, when taking everything into consideration, it starts to make sense that Montero can't do it all. He may not be able to communicate with pitchers, frame pitches, understand how to call a game, throw, block balls in the dirt, protect the plate, or catch the ball as well as is required.

h/t: Jairo of Rosin Bags and Pine Tar

What Will the Braves Do?

2012-02-10T09:27:00.006-05:00

The Braves had a terrible collapse last September. People outside of Atlanta don't hear much about it because (a) the Red Sox had a worse collapse, (b) the media loves to report on Boston teams, and (c) even Braves fans don't really care about the Braves.

This offseason, the Braves didn't do much. As Jeff Passan put it in his examination of the Braves' offseason:

No team’s offseason transaction list reads with quite the sparseness of the Atlanta Braves’.

Oct. 31: Trade starter Derek Lowe to the Cleveland Indians for a 23-year-old Class-A reliever and $5 million of salary relief.
November: Nothing
Dec. 12: Release reliever Peter Moylan
Jan. 13: Sign shortstop Jack Wilson
Jan. 17: Re-sign reliever Peter Moylan

I've been thinking about the Braves for a few weeks, as a team capable of polarized results. They have a chance to perform as well as any other team on paper. They could conceivably win the World Series, or the Braves could finish in 4th place, behind the favored Phillies, and upstart Nationals and Marlins. All four of those teams will finish ahead of the Mets, who are decorating the NL East cellar, since they'll be there for at least a couple of years. For a few minutes, let's see what variables are hovering over Dixie's baseball team.

Best wishes to T. Hanson

What's up with Tommy Hanson's injury? We just saw Rich Harden go down for the year, on February 8th! At a time when shoulder injuries are proving over, and over, and over again to be devastating to pitchers' careers (see: Harden, Webb, Prior, Sheets), forgive us for being pessimistic about his "revamped delivery". We've heard about these new deliveries with Mark Prior many times. Forget it. The only two ways rotator cuff or shoulder capsul / labrum guys come back to have success is either in the bullpen, or as soft-tossing lefties. Hopefully, Tommy Hanson's shoulder issues are nowhere near this serious, as he's shown to be an outstanding pitcher..

For the 2012 Braves, staying healthy could be more challenging than usual, since it seems their top two pitchers are both banged up one week before camp breaks. In addition to Hanson, Tim Hudson may not be ready for the start of the season. Much of the hopes of Braves fans, though, comes in the next wave of pitchers due in from the minor leagues. Their top 3 pitching prospects: Arodys Vizcaino, Julio Teheran, and Randall Delgado should be able to help the Braves out of the bullpen or as starters. Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America have these guys as the Braves top 3 prospects overall. ESPN's Keith Law snuck catcher Christian Bethancourt ahead of Delgado, he had all 4 of them in his Top 100 prospects in baseball list.

Some of the Braves' greatest weapons last season were in their bullpen. In fact, as a team, the Braves' bullpen led all of baseball in Opponents' Batting Average, ERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. Braves' fans should have confidence in their bullpen entering this Spring, but there are question marks due to the 2011 high workload of their best relievers: Crag Kimbrel, Johnny Venters, and Eric O'Flaherty. Those three pitchers were league leaders in IP last season, each throwing over 73. Extend the group to include Cristhian Martínez, who threw 77 innings for the Braves and another 22 as a starter in AAA, to see that over half of the Braves bullpen will try to bounce back from a heavy workload.

The Yankees would absolutely
love to have Arodys Vizcaino back.

These factors show the potential for feast or famine this year in Atlanta. They have the players to succeed, but also serious red flags.

What should provide substantial hope is that Vizcaino, Teheran, and Delgado could also step in to fortify the bullpen as attrition takes its toll.

What is Jair Jurrgens value? This homegrown* player could be traded midseason, but the Braves would have to lower their asking price substantially, by falling out of the race. Or, Jurrgens is going to have to pitch like Tim Hudson, and even then the Braves will have to fall out of the race. It may play out that the Braves should have tried to roll the dice on a Jurgens trade this offseason, getting less in return, but something that could help out in more ways than one.

*still kindly accepting applications for editors.

How much will simple regression get Jason Heyward out of his Sophmore slump? How great will Jason Heyward be if his health and growth make him a better player than in 2010?

Does Chipper Jones have another "one more year in the sun"? In a shocking turn of events, as he ages gracefully, Larry is slowly becoming less and less irritating.

McCann and Freeman are great, but will McCann start to show his backstop mileage? And, will Freeman be able to avoid the sophomore slump monster that swallowed the J-Hey kid last season? The smart money is on both of these guys to continue succeeding in the heart of the order.

Dan Uggla provides rare power from the keystone position. Will Uggla avoid enough outs to keep the Braves competitive? Will his defense be a problem the team cannot overcome?

Alex Gonzalez is taking his
unique talents to Milwaukee

Their old shortstop, Alex Gonzalez is a plus defender, and he used to have some pop in his bat. He makes a ton of outs with both the glove and his bat.*

*I wonder if this could launch an internal investigation. Hmm, NERD ALERT, who has made the most outs with his glove and bat combined?

The Braves signed Jack Wilson, but the general feeling around the Braves is that he's there as a backup / mentor / defensive replacement. Tyler Pastornicky will be given every opportunity to win the starting job. His ceiling seems relatively low, however. Not meaning to short change Pastornicky, but he failed to impress with the bat ~~during his brief stint~~* last season. He hasn't shown any power and his 77% success rate stealing bases in the Minors is no more than "good". Really, not trying to speak badly of Pastornicky, but there must be reason he doesn't come with the buzz of guys like Manny Machado or Jurickson Profar. There are a lot of exciting shortstop prospects, and frankly, I'm not sure Pastornicky is going to be better than the player he is replacing or another rookie shortstop in the National League: Zack Cozart in Cincinnati.

*The highest of apologies for referencing a cup of coffee that never took place.

If you've gotten to this point, you are likely a huge Braves fan, one of my friends/family, or perhaps you're having a stroke. There was very little math used in this exercise. Please feel free to enlighten me and other readers with more intelligent comments below.

Favorite Catcher: Wilson Ramos

2012-02-01T09:09:00.000-05:00

Anyone who follows on Twitter or knows me personally knows we are big fans of Wilson Ramos and were on edge for the two days he was kidnapped. We were fans when the Twins foolishly traded him for Matt Capps. We expected Wilson Ramos to complement Joe Mauer perfectly, almost as the Girardi to Mauer's Posada.

Fast forward to this morning, and I am on the Subway, reading this outstanding article from Sports Illustrated's Melissa Segura. Please take a few minutes out of your day to read some of the fascinating details of existence in Venezuela. For example:

The kidnappers ... recognized a narrow window of opportunity. They had found Ramos in the vulnerable space between making the major leagues and buying the security that his fame had suddenly necessitated. This is the devil's bargain of the Venezuelan major leaguer: Success comes with a terrible price. He has two main options. He can stay away from his country altogether, or he can build a fortress. High walls, razor wire, prisonlike security doors, private guards in watchtowers—these things signify realism, not paranoia. Ramos, who was getting ready to spend the off-season playing for the Tigres de Aragua of the Venezuelan winter league, earned $415,000 with the Nationals last season, but he still lived with his mother and five siblings in a small concrete box of a house with a corrugated metal roof and no sink in the bathroom.
A few days earlier he'd bought a new house in a safer neighborhood with seven bedrooms and a garden. But there was no hurry to leave the old place. Here young Wilson and his brothers had played baseball in the street with a broomstick bat and a ball of crumpled tape. Here Wilson had gone from the pudgy kid his family called Pipo to the man of the house after his parents' divorce. Long before he signed his first baseball contract, as a 16-year-old scooped up by the Minnesota Twins, he put food on his family's table. He found a horse wandering in the street and collected money from neighborhood children for rides. He caught tropical birds in a homemade trap baited with honey and sold them to a local pet store...

How could we not root for a guy like Wilson Ramos?

Here's to a great season and career for Pipo Ramos.

Bo Jackson, Home to Home

2012-01-31T15:31:00.000-05:00

One of today's SB Nation pieces by Rob Neyer sent me to his final ESPN.com piece from a year ago, which brought me childhood memories of Bo Jackson. Neyer included a Youtube link with amazing Bo Jackson footage, but it's not what I wanted to share.

With a little extra digging, I found the following clip of Bo Jackson hitting an inside the park home run off Bob Welch.

To see someone round the bases in 15 seconds, please enjoy:

Two of the more amazing happenings of this game:

Bo's run scored in the 2nd inning would be the only run the Royals scored until the 11th inning, in a 2-1 victory.
Royals' Mark Gubicza pitched 10 innings for a No Decision.

Game was played on June 12, 1989.

Thanks to Baseball-Reference and Retrosheet for the box score.

A Few Good Stats

2012-01-29T13:51:00.001-05:00

TheSociety for American Baseball Research celebrates SABR Day each year on the Saturdaybefore the Super Bowl. We took part by spending a little time onBaseball-Reference and Fangraphs, ultimately sharing a quick discovery in tweet form:

"For 16 years (age 21-36) Yogi Berra never OPS+'d below 109."

Beloware few different baseball stats for this Pro Bowl Sunday.

Most Pitches per Plate Appearance

	PA	Pit	Pit/PA
Paul Goldschmidt	178	788	4.43
Curtis Granderson*	692	3069	4.43
Adam Dunn*	499	2184	4.38
Mike Napoli	432	1889	4.37
Jayson Werth	652	2833	4.35
Bobby Abreu*	588	2549	4.34
Brad Hawpe*	217	936	4.31
Chris Parmelee*	88	378	4.3
Jose Bautista	656	2805	4.28
Jim Thome*	326	1394	4.28

Fewest Pitches per Plate Appearance

	PA	Pit	Pit/PA
Yuniesky Betancourt	585	1846	3.16
Vladimir Guerrero	591	1901	3.22
Andy Dirks*	236	777	3.29
Eliezer Alfonzo	80	265	3.31
Aramis Ramirez	627	2080	3.32
Vernon Wells	531	1804	3.4
Ronny Paulino	248	846	3.41
Miguel Tejada	345	1180	3.42
Magglio Ordonez	357	1224	3.43
Delmon Young	504	1734	3.44

Lowest Swing Percentage on 3-0*

RyanBraun (1 of 47) 2.1%

AlexAvila (1 of 44) 2.3%

BenZobrist (1 of 43) 2.3%

ShaneVictorino (1 of 39) 2.6%

NickMarkakis (1 of 37) 2.7%

Highest Swing Percentage on 3-0*

AndreEthier (15 of 41) 37%

ToriiHunter (12 of 33) 36%

JustinUpton (11 of 35) 31%

AlbertPujols (15 of 52) 29%

RyanHoward (16 of 57) 28%

*Minimum 29 PA with 3-0 count (LeagueAverage)

We looked for batters with good combinations of patience and power, last February. The following is an exercise in patience and contact. According toBaseball-Reference, there were twenty-two batters in 2011 that swung at morethan 51% of pitches seen.

Below are these free-swinging 22, by lowestcontact %.

	AS/Pit	Con
Carlos Peguero*	57%	64%
Miguel Olivo	56%	64%
Bill Hall	52%	66%
Brandon Wood	52%	69%
Eliezer Alfonzo	57%	71%
Josh Hamilton*	55%	73%
Tyler Colvin*	53%	74%
Adam Jones	56%	75%
Juan Francisco*	55%	75%
Mark Trumbo	53%	75%
Rod Barajas	52%	76%
Jeff Francoeur	54%	78%
Juan Uribe	52%	78%
Carlos Guillen#	52%	78%
Delmon Young	54%	79%
Pablo Sandoval#	57%	80%
Vladimir Guerrero	59%	81%
Aramis Ramirez	54%	82%
Brandon Phillips	53%	82%
Andy Dirks*	53%	82%
Yuniesky Betancourt	56%	84%
Magglio Ordonez	52%	86%

Carlos Peguero and King Felix

Thetop two spots of this list are teammates on the Mariners. Imagine how manystrikeouts Felix Hernandez would rack up if he could face Peguero and Olivo. Mariners batting coach Chris Chambliss has an uphil battle with them.

BillHall is a free agent, but placing third on this leader board will not help himgain employment.

BrandonWood, Eliezer Alfonso, and Tyler Colvin are on the Rockies. Their battingcoach, Carney Lansford, was a good contact hitter. Can he connect with his hackingpupils?

PabloSandoval and Vladimir Guerrero have been known as free-swinging power hitterswith good contact skills, so it is apropos to see them adjacent to one anotherhere. Aramis Ramirez, Brandon Phillips, and Yuniesky Betancourt also stand outas well known aggressive hitters who make contact.

After a winter of cockfighting, Aramis looks ready to summer in Milwaukee.

Prince and his Power

2012-01-13T02:26:00.002-05:00

One of my stranger collections are the undeveloped ideas, explorations, and arguments that lay in the tenuous existence of this blog's nebulous Saved Drafts folder.

Archived like time capsules, these drafts may house a few lines or more. Sometimes, it's just a title for a post, but more often it's a bunch of half-baked and sloppily written blog fragments.

We've never done this before, but the following is an unpublished post from this past June.

***

Thinking about Prince Fielder's upcoming contract negotiations, I wondered where he ranked in the NL in Homeruns over his career. It must be a high ranking every year. How high?

Over the course of his six full seasons in the big leagues (NL Rank in parenthesis).

2006: 28 (18th)
2007: 50 (1st)
2008: 34 (8th)
2009: 46 (2nd)
2010: 32 (6th)
2011: 38 (2nd)

As one would expect, Boras Corporation bombards front offices with sellable information on their Free Agent clients. The binder the agency produces should include these power numbers for the past 5 seasons: Top 2 in the NL three times in 5 years. That sounds impressive, but how impressive is it?

Compared to Albert Pujols? Not very... Here are Pujols's Homerun numbers (with NL rank) over the past six years:

2006: 49 (2nd)
2007: 32 (10th)
2008: 37 (4th)
2009: 47 (1st)
2010: 42 (1st)
2011: 37 (3rd)

Boras won't be comparing Prince to Pujols in any way, except age.

This is cherry picking numbers, and it's not good for supporting arguments with your friends or on blogs, but it's what a lot of us may do from time to time. It's also something sports agents do all the time. Agents find statistics to support their cases when clients sign their first professional contracts, go through arbitration, and finally test free agents.

When discussing comparable players, statistics can be found to make either player look superior to the other.

Historical context can be powerfully persuasive tools for player agents. Looking at Prince Fielder's Homerun numbers again, this time as a percentage of total Homeruns hit in the league, should give us a useful point of view to discuss historical significance.

He's good for another 100,000 miles

2006: 1.16%
2007: 1.85%
2008: 1.30%
2009: 1.85%
2010: 1.33%
2011: 1.67%

Just for a second, to get away from the primary focus of this exercise (HR power), let's focus on a big picture performance.

The following metric includes defensive ratings from Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs. Here are the players on the MLBTR 2012 Free Agents page, ranked by Career avWAR/600 PA:

Albert Pujols: 7.2
Lance Berkman: 4.5
Prince Fielder: 3.1
Nick Johnson: 2.9
Derrek Lee: 2.7
Carlos Peña: 2.1
Russell Branyan: 1.95
Lyle Overbay: 1.93
Mark Kotsay: 1.88
Michael Cuddyer: 1.6
Casey Kotchman: 1.1
Xavier Nady: 0.9
Brad Hawpe: 0.8
Jorge Cantu: 0.5
Ross Gload: -0.2

Note: these avWAR/600 PA figures are from June 2011.

We're not here to embarrass Ross Gload. We're rooting for him to have a great rest of his career to finish up with a positive WAR.

Getting back to power, % of League Home Runs might be insightful, but I'm beginning to see this whole exercise as pointless. Let's examine the percentage of league HR's for everyone who's ever hit 50 homers.

Barry Bonds, 2001, 73 ~ 2.47%
Mark McGwire, 1998, 70 ~ 2.73%
Sammy Sosa, 1998, 66 ~ 2.57%
Mark McGwire, 1999, 65
Sammy Sosa, 2001, 64
Sammy Sosa, 1999, 63
Roger Maris, 1961, 61 ~ 3.98%
Babe Ruth, 1927, 60 ~ 13.67%
Babe Ruth, 1921, 59 ~ 12.37%
Jimmie Foxx, 1932, 58 ~ 8.20%
Hank Greenberg, 1938, 58 ~ 6.71%
Ryan Howard, 2006, 58
Mark McGwire, 1997, 58
Luis Gonzalez, 2001, 57
Alex Rodriguez, 2002, 57
Ken Griffey, 1997, 56
Ken Griffey, 1998, 56
Hack Wilson, 1930, 56
Jose Bautista, 2010, 54 ~ 2.44%
Ralph Kiner, 1949, 54
Mickey Mantle, 1961, 54
David Ortiz, 2006, 54
Alex Rodriguez, 2007, 54
Babe Ruth, 1920, 54
Babe Ruth, 1928, 54
George Foster, 1977, 52
Mickey Mantle, 1956, 52
Willie Mays, 1965, 52
Mark McGwire, 1996, 52
Alex Rodriguez, 2001, 52
Jim Thome, 2002, 52
Cecil Fielder, 1990, 51
Andruw Jones, 2005, 51
Ralph Kiner, 1947, 51
Willie Mays, 1955, 51
Johnny Mize, 1947, 51
Brady Anderson, 1996, 50
Albert Belle, 1995, 50
Prince Fielder, 2007, 50 ~ 1.85%
Jimmie Foxx, 1938, 50
Sammy Sosa, 2000, 50
Greg Vaughn, 1998, 50 ~ 1.95%

Lastly, we'll be looking at other people who've lead Major League Baseball in Homeruns, since World War II, and figuring their percentage of League HR's.

2011: Jose Bautista, 43 ~ 1.89%
2010: Jose Bautista, 54 ~ 2.44%
2009: Albert Pujols, 47
2008: Ryan Howard, 48
2007: Alex Rodriguez, 54
2006: Ryan Howard, 58
2005: Andruw Jones, 51
2004: Adrian Beltre, 48
2003: Jim Thome and Alex Rodriguez, 47
2002: Alex Rodriguez, 57
2001: Barry Bonds, 73
2000: Sammy Sosa, 50
1999: Mark McGwire, 65
1998: Mark McGwire, 70
1997: Ken Griffey, 56
1996: Mark McGwire, 52
1995: Albert Belle, 50
1994: Matt Williams, 43
1993: Barry Bonds and Juan Gonzalez, 46
1992: Juan Gonzalez, 43
1991: Jose Canseco and Cecil Fielder, 44
1990: Cecil Fielder, 51
1989: Kevin Mitchell, 47
1988: Jose Canseco, 42
1987: Andre Dawson and Mark McGwire, 49
1986: Jesse Barfield, 40
1985: Darrell Evans, 40
1984: Tony Armas, 43
1983: Mike Schmidt, 40
1982: Gorman Thomas, 39
1981: Mike Schmidt, 31
1980: Mike Schmidt, 48
1979: Dave Kingman, 48
1978: Jim Rice, 46
1977: George Foster, 52
1976: Mike Schmidt, 38
1975: Mike Schmidt, 38
1974: Mike Schmidt, 36
1973: Willie Stargell, 44
1972: Johnny Bench, 40
1971: Willie Stargell, 48
1970: Johnny Bench, 45
1969: Harmon Killebrew, 49
1968: Frank Howard, 44
1967: Harmon Killebrew and Carl Yastrzemski, 44
1966: Frank Robinson, 49
1965: Willie Mays, 52
1964: Harmon Killebrew, 49
1963: Harmon Killebrew, 45
1962: Willie Mays, 49
1961: Roger Maris, 61
1960: Ernie Banks, 41
1959: Eddie Mathews, 461958: Ernie Banks, 47
1957: Hank Aaron, 44
1956: Mickey Mantle, 52
1955: Willie Mays, 51
1954: Ted Kluszewski, 49
1953: Eddie Mathews, 47
1952: Ralph Kiner and Hank Sauer, 37
1951: Ralph Kiner, 42
1950: Ralph Kiner, 47
1949: Ralph Kiner, 54
1948: Ralph Kiner and Johnny Mize, 40
1947: Ralph Kiner and Johnny Mize, 51
1946: Hank Greenberg, 44

***

We never got back to this post to calculate all the percentages of league home runs. If anyone wants to try it, help yourselves. Share your results with us, and we will give you Big Ups all over cyberspace.

At the very least, this post provided a nifty avWAR/600 PA compilation of projected free agent first basemen from this past June. You can't get that anywhere else.

I'd say it's a good thing that I don't have to date anymore.

This is dreadful date conversation. Thanks for reading.

MLB's 24 Under 24

2012-01-03T09:21:00.001-05:00

Some of you may have participated in a Major League Soccer promotion called 24 under 24. As the name implies, MLS is highlighting 24 of their brightest young stars, under the age of 24.

Fredy Montero is a beacon of
hope for soccer fans in Seattle.

The league has done this the past two years. Fredy Montero ranked #1 in 2010, and Brek Shea of FC Dallas too top honors this season.

Major League Soccer is blessed with the best young talent they've maybe ever had. Not only does the league have a bright future, it is thriving after a fantastic season.

I have no idea of the prime ages for soccer players, but 24 seems like an interesting age for the arbitrary cutoff. In baseball, a decent number of people would presumably say that the age 24 season is often the first of a player's prime, i.e. peak performance, seasons.

As an homage to the good people at MLS, let's take a look at our choices for Major League Baseball players, yet to reach their prime:

To be eligible for our list, players must have some Major League experience going into the 2012 season. So, guys like Bryce Harper are not eligible.

Major League Baseball's 24 Under 24
24. Salvador Perez
Royals, Age: 21

Salvador Perez is a big guy.

There are some questions about Perez's long-term hitting ability, as he didn't put up eye popping stats in the Minor Leagues. On the other hand, he's been shuttled around various rookie leagues and has always been young for his level. Last year, at 21, he raked in a 2-week stint with the Omaha Storm Chasers before hitting .331 as a part-time backstop for Kansas City.

23. Chris Sale
White Sox, Age: 22
Following in the footsteps of recent success stories, like C.J. Wilson's, the White Sox will be converting Chris Sale back to the position in which he was drafted, Starting Pitcher. After two successful years in the White Sox bullpen, Sale should be effective in the rotation. He has effectively mixed in his four pitches, with two different fastballs and an outstanding slider and change-up. Sale has consistently been one of the league leaders in difference between his fastball and change-up. It's expected that his fastball will lose a couple of MPH when starting but his change-up should, as well.

22. Jacob Turner
Tigers, Age: 20
The results of his Major League performance in 2011 did not impress, but Jacob Turner showed confidence in four pitches, forecasting a bright future at the front of the Tigers rotation. Recent rumors the Tigers are offering him in exchange for Matt Garza have some Cubs fans brimming with optimism.

21. Mike Moustakas
Royals, Age: 23
Another player who showed fantastic promise without great results is the Royals young 3rd baseman. In that vain, his two best attributes are his youth and ability to play a position known for talent scarcity.

20. Brandon Belt
Giants, Age: 23
Belt's stock dropped a bit last season, mostly because the team mismanagaed him by waffling between his involvement in Triple-A and San Francisco. Even in the big leagues, he was often playing a bit out of position in the outfield. His hitting tools are such that he could eventually be the most accomplished hitter on this list, which speaks to the outstanding young talent in baseball.

19. Starlin Castro
Cubs, Age: 21
There are overt questions about physical and mental elements in Castro's game, but he's getting the benefit of the doubt for still being so young. Castro does not walk often enough to be an elite on-base guy (5.2 career BB%), and he's shown middling power (.118 ISO).

18. Elvis Andrus
Rangers, Age: 23

Where were you at 23?

As a Cubs fan, it would be great to watch Castro develop into a better player than Andrus. Until then, Elvis Andrus is better defensively and sports a higher walk rate. FWIW, according to Baseball-Reference, Andrus's top comp at age 22 is Alan Trammell, and Starlin Castro's, at 21, is Garry Templeton.

17. Aroldis Chapman
Reds, Age: 23
They say the flame throwing Cuban southpaw is transitioning to the starting rotation next season, and with Dusty Baker as his manager, anything is possible. He could be brilliant, but for how long? The Reds will need to monitor Chapman's innings, for a late October run, and they may have the depth to handle it. The Reds rotation already pencils in: Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Arroyo, and Leake without Chapman.

16. Dustin Ackley
Mariners, Age: 23
Scouts who touted Dustin's hitting ability in the amateur ranks have been nodding in approval as Ackley showed good command of the strike zone, a balanced swing, and a propensity to get extra-base hits.

15. Freddie Freeman
Braves, Age: 22
Finishing a strong second in NL Rookie of the Year voting, as a 21-year old, means Freeman should remain on this list for another couple of seasons. How high will he rise in the rankings before his 24th birthday?

14. Michael Pineda
Mariners, Age: 22
How far can a 1-2 duo of Felix and Pineda take the Mariners? Probably about 3rd or 4th place if they don't add some hitting. On the plus side, Seattle is supposed to have a slew of great arms almost ready to impact the big league rotation.

13. Brett Lawrie
Blue Jays, Age: 21
Someone could try to compare better career debuts and/or better 43-game seasons. Brett Lawrie will not develop into one of the best third basemen in world in a few years. He already is one today. Blue Jays fans should hope that Lawrie's days of playing Edward 40 Hands are over.

12. Julio Teheran
Braves, Age: 20

The Braves will rise again.

Teheran flashes a power arm and repertoire of pitches that will have him in Braves colors for the next six seasons, minimum.

11. Neftali Feliz
Rangers, Age: 23
Kimbrel is a better relief pitcher than Neftali Feliz, but we have the Rangers' closer here because he still may be converted to a starter. In other words, Feliz would be more valuable if he could bring his team twice as many quality innings as a relief pitcher.

10. Jesus Montero
Yankees, Age: 22
How could anyone not be excited about this kid stepping into the bright lights of a Yankee pennant race, and shining by hitting with patience and power? Even if he cannot handle catching duties, he could define the DH position like no-one since Edgar Martínez.

9. Craig Kimbrel
Braves, Age: 23
Recent trades of young, inexpensive relievers, under team control for years, like Marc Melancon and Sergio Santos have changed the market for relievers. If more teams decide to cash in on even their best relievers, the bounty the Braves could get for Craig Kimbrel exceeds all others. In his 1+plus year career, Craig Kimbrel has faced 394 batters to a batting line of .167/.270/.216. That is a SLUGGING percentage of .216.

8. Eric Hosmer
Royals, Age: 22
During talk of AL Rookie of the Year candidates, people kept saying that Hosmer was the best rookie prospect we saw this year, but the award should go to whomever had the best season. Voters ultimately picked Jeremy Hellickson and Mark Trumbo ahead of 3rd place Hosmer. The Trumbo votes were terrible, as voters completely ignored his .291 on-base percentage and the fact that he made 427 Outs.

7. Jason Heyward
Braves, Age: 22
Sophomore slumps have the moniker because they happen from time-to-time. Most sophomore slumpers rebound, and there's no reason to expect Jason Heyward to just not be "good" anymore. Evidence shows he played injured last season, often with multiple injuries at once. Particularly damaging to Heyward were any lower body injuries that affected his balance at the plate. If healthy, Heyward should continue to use his keen batting eye and evident power to enter league MVP conversations in the next year or two.

6. Madison Bumgarner
Giants, Age: 22

The Bumgarner guy's gonna
be around for a long time.

As recently as two years ago, we were not very high on Bumgarner. He was too much of a soft tosser for us to get too excited about. No, we went gaga for guys who've flamed out or never developed and are now beginning to get wise. Aside from the Win/Loss record, what Bumgarner has done in the Major Leagues the past two and a half years, and at such a young age, has been tremendous. At age 21, Stephen Strasburg electrified baseball with 68 innings before throwing out his elbow. By comparison, at 21 last season, Madison Bumgarner threw 204 innings, with a 3.21 ERA and 2.67 FIP, across 33 starts for the Giants.

5. Mike Stanton
Marlins, Age: 22
Power, raw and unadulterated power. When Mike Stanton first came to the big leagues, we were a bit suspect by his lack of patience and high strikeout numbers. Given his undeniable ability to hit the ball very hard, we have come around to forgive the 150 strikeouts, particularly because he's so young and he is showing signs of fondness towards the base on balls.

4. Mike Trout
Angels, Age: 20
From power, we go to speed. Mike Trout may do everything well on the baseball field, but his speed is what sets him apart from past outfield phenoms. He was clocked from home to first at 3.82 seconds, which is newsworthy.

3. Matt Moore
Rays, Age: 22
As Michael Scott would say, Matt Moore could end up being the bell of the ball, and may deserve being ranked #1 on this list. The talent he showed in a late-season call-up and postseason start in Game 1 of the first round left observers in awe. Great job by the Rays locking him up to a team-friendly, Longoria-esque long-term deal. The Rays and Blue Jays are legit, so the AL East may finally have a 4-team race again. When was the last time that division had four teams in contention in late August?

2. Stephen Strasburg
Nationals, Age: 23
Give me any of these to 3 guys, and you won't hear any complaints. The fact that he came back from Tommy John Surgery throwing in the high 90's fosters confidence that he will be his old self as he enters his age 23 season and prime over the next seven or eight seasons. With a rotation boasting Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, ~~Ryan~~ Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan, and Chien-Ming Wang bringing up the rear, watch out for those Nats!

1. Clayton Kershaw
Dodgers, Age: 23
Looking at some of Clayton Kershaw's career accomplishments reads like a plaque in Cooperstown, and he's only 23 years old with a Cy Young award to his credit. Sandy Koufax didn't win his first Cy Young until he was 27.

The only legitimate criticism of Clayton Kershaw is with his facial hair.

Honorable mention: Logan Morrison, Rick Porcello, Leonys Martin, Devin Mesoraco, Drew Pomeranz, Dayan Viciedo, Wilson Ramos, Alex White, Danny Duffy, Alex Cobb, Zach Britton, Mike Leake, Jordan Walden, Henderson Alvarez, and a couple of ex-teammates in Oakland called Anderson and Cahill.

Please begin or join the discussion in our comments section, and please remember that players must have some MLB experience, so no Bryce Harper this year...

If Twitter Had Deleted Scenes

2011-12-31T19:55:00.001-05:00

Have you ever watched deleted scenes to any of your favorite movies? There's a reason the scenes didn't make it into the final cut of the film. Usually, they're mundane scenes that are either poorly written, don't quite fit with the pace of the film, or have any other multitude of problems. Sadly, I'm afraid this post may live up to similar standards of excellence.

To preserve the patience of my twitter followers, I held back a collection of untweetable outbursts and recorded them below throughout the past four months. There's a reason these weren't tweet-worthy, so please feel free to read no further, making this a complete opt-in service.

Hopefully, this will be better than the The Godfather deleted scene of Michael's body guards in Sicily eating fruit in a silent room.

***

Sept 2, 7:45 am - There must be a new shoe releasing at Footlocker today, or something, because there are about twenty people in line.

Sept 2, 8:03 am - Money line from @barryap1: "It's as if ESPN never had problems crossing the line between editorial and advertising." http://deadspin.com/5836538/espn-will-put-unranked-texas-in-the-top-25-now-that-they-own-the-longhorn-network

Sept 2, 10:19 am - I just invested $1 in tomorrow's $91 million Powerball.

Sept 2, 10:32 am - I would totally submit pictures to @captivate if my office had a good view.

Sept 4, 7:11pm - Why is Michael Pineda owned in only 55% of yahoo leagues? Isn't he really good?

Sept 6, 6:11pm - Adeiny Hechavarria will be the second most exciting player in the Arizona Fall League.

Sept 6, 9:21pm - Who's better on bass? Tony Garnier or George Porter, Jr?

Sept 6, 9:40pm - Dude, Strasburg is back. #99mph

Sept 6, 10:36pm - Goddamn, Jerry owned "Visions of Johanna" before he passed. #dylan

Sep 8, 1:13pm - MJ "why? Why?" #np

Sep 8, 4:19pm - Just blocked @foxrobot because I h-a-t-e the Fox Robot.

Sep 8, 6:50pm - it looks like every restaurant on the UWS has a B or Grade Pending from the NY Health Dept. #gross

Sep 8, 7:16pm - Go Craig Kimbrell! #fantasy #playoffs

Sep 8, 7:20pm - I didn't know Justin Turner had 47 at bats, let alone 47 rbi. #Mets

Sep 8, 7:24pm - Why we don't pay for Saves: Craig Kimbrell #Braves

Sep 8, 7:27pm - "He's not selling any alibis, as you stare into the vacuum of his eyes." #dylan

Sep 8, 8:06pm - How would @oshman react to Astros to the American League?

Sep 8, 8:54pm - hate the Packers, watching Julio Teheran pitch instead.

Sept 21, 2:30pm - Swisher uncorked a throw after favoring it for days, but is looked like there was pain there.

Sept 21, 2:35pm - As a Cubs fan, seeing Larry Rothschild with the Yankees is still infuriating.

Sept 21, 2:44pm - Aaron Laffey is doing his best to avoid the #Yankees postseason roster.

Sept 21, 3:10pm - That's a Gold Glove play by D Jeter.

Sept 21, 5:17pm - Sabathia's going for 20, Hellickson for ROY.

Sept 21, 5:55pm - Poetry from @zacharylevine: "Homer-ravaged pitcher finds shelter in Houston lineup" http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2011/09/21/reds-2-astros-0-homer-ravaged-pitcher-finds-shelter-in-houston-lineup/ #Reds #Astros

Sept 22, 7:58pm - Matt Moore is great so far in the Bronx, 5 K's in first 2 innings

Sep 22, 8:15pm - #RedSox fans watching this #Rays / #Yankees game must be so upset. Matt Moore is awesome; the Rays are great and getting better.

Sep 22, 8:16pm - it's Rays 9, Yankees 0

Sept 23, 11:19pm - The Brewers have the best tailgate in baseball, and the best team outside Philadelphia in the NL.

Sept 23, 11:22pm - The Cubs celebrate a shortstop with terrible defense getting 200 hits, and the Brewers win the division. #ugh

Sept 29, 1:38pm - Atlanta fans don't care. MT @DKnobler In Atlanta, no one takes the fall @mlbbowman: Braves will bring back their entire coaching staff

Oct 2, 4:38pm - If "clutch" existed, that would have not been clutch. But, "clutch" does not exist. #Jeter

Oct 2, 4:44pm - Oh man, Aaron Rodgers, 50-yd TD @nflredzone

Oct 4, 9:09pm - AJ Burnett has not had a good year. He hasn't been good in a while. Maybe he should lose those stupid necklaces.

Oct 7, 3:44pm - Jim Leyland picks his battles and wins.

Oct 7, 7:21pm - @cantpredictball Yuniesky Betancourt, post-season hero.

Oct 8, 1:12pm - "Relationships of ownership, they whisper in the wings to those condemned to act accordingly and wait for succeeding kings." Bob Dylan 1964

Oct 10, 3:21pm - Thanks, Deanna @DFigurito, very helpful. RT @EverydayHealth: Foods that do your boobies good: http://t.co/oDcnnvkN

Oct 10, 5:25pm - Ron Washington needs a bump.

Oct 10, 8:19pm - Ryan Perry is really good...

Oct 10, 8:34pm - I thought Brandon Inge was a totally nice guy, until I saw his tatt's.

Nov 22, 7:40am - @brotz13 Buster may need to take a step back from the ol' twitter machine.

Nov 22, 8:20am - Buster's getting defensive https://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/status/138938285803315200

Nov 23, 3:58pm - Is Brian Ching really going to retire? Say it ain't so, @brianching @MLS

Nov 25, 4:10pm - You're not a bad tweeter, @Citibank, but the people at the banks are terrible at communicating, particularly listening and speaking clearly.

Nov 27, 11:06am - Coño, @Sporting_Gijon 0 @LevanteUD 2

Nov 29, 12:11am - Big day tomorrow, good night! #deletedscene

Nov 30, 8:44am - Is Arlo White moving to New York? @arlowhite

Dec 2, 11:30pm - Exciting time to be a Marlins fan, eh?

Dec 4, 8:58am - Canadian band @Nickelback is the best rock band in the world (at deflecting criticism). cc: @PeterMoylan

Dec 4, 2:57pm - Oh Jesus, Tebow just threw a TD pass.

Dec 4, 9:04pm - The #Cubs trading Tyler Colvin for a 3rd baseman is a solid Winter Meetings rumor.

Dec 5, 4:40pm - @CubsDen More like 5/$175.

Dec 7, 2:40pm - Tourists just commented that being in New York is stressful, and they're ON VACATION.

Dec 11, 12:10pm - @JonHeymanCBS No, Prince is not returning to Milwaukee. Pls stop asking.

Dec 14, 8:31pm - The Holiday Spirit is alive when you see a creepy man with a younger woman and later realize it's an innocent night out for a father/daughter

Dec 14, 8:32pm - I'm so glad to have this safeguard because that last tweet was rubbish.

Dec 14, 8:33pm - So was that last one #rubbish #english

Dec 16, 4:59pm - @Number1Baseball Much better value for the Twins, getting essentially an equal player

Dec 16, 8:56pm - If the Blue Jays don't value Luis Perez, the #Cubs should trade for him.

Dec 30, 8:10am - Sounds like the Andrew Bailey trade was basically all about Raul Alcantara: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2011/2612761.html

Season's Greetings from the Corleone Family

Coal for the Hot Stove

2011-12-31T02:45:00.003-05:00

We did this 367 days ago. It was so much; we had to do it again.

Below is our suggestion for a 25-man roster comprised solely of current free agents, as of Dec 31, 2011.

Pos: Player
SP: Edwin Jackson

Roy-O PHOTO BOMB!!!!

SP: Roy Oswalt
SP: Hiroki Kuroda
SP: Jeff Francis
SP: Bartolo Colón
Swing: Joe Saunders
Middle: Luis Ayala
Middle: Taylor Buchholz
LOOGY: Mike Gonzalez
Setup: Kerry Wood
Closer: Ryan Madson

C: Chris Snyder

Prince casts a large shadow over
the remaining free agent class.

1b: Prince Fielder
2b: Jeff Keppinger
SS: Ronny Cedeño
3b: Wilson Betemit
LF: Jonny Gomes
CF: Yoennis Cespedes
RF: Kosuke Fukudome

C: Ronny Paulino
IF: Jack Wilson
OF: Coco Crisp
PH Rt: Vladimir Guerrero

PH Lt: Johnny Damon
Bench: J.D. Drew
Bench: Willie Harris

The market had plenty of decent part-time players, but the only legitimate middle of the order bat still available belongs to Prince Fielder. People will be watching Cespedes intently when he unveils his game in the US. There may still be a big season left in the tank of Johnny Damon or Vladdy Daddy. Just like last year, there are a bunch of bullpen options even rolling into January. A team looking to improve their starting rotation still has a few solid #3 starters for sale, as well as innings eaters like Joe Saunders and another handful not listed. Check out mlbtr's regularly updated 2012 Free Agents list to keep up with the diminishing talent pool. What are your thoughts? Reactions? Opinions?We have a couple more posts in the works, but it's unclear if they'll hit the blogosphere until 2012. Have a happy and healthy New Year!

Johnny Damon and Vladimir Guerrero may be competing for the same job.

Basic Appreciation for Edgar Martinez

2011-12-27T12:08:00.000-05:00

As we noted in our last post, one stat never tells the whole story. Nonetheless, it is widely believed that the most important offensive statistic is On Base Percentage. As readers of Moneyball may remember, outs are a baseball game's most valuable commodity. A team gets only twenty-seven outs per game, and each one is precious. OBP is baseball's most treasured offensive statistic because reaching base is the act of avoiding an out.

In this spirit, here is the today's quickest argument in favor of Edgar Martinez's Hall of Fame case:

Career OBP Leaders, past 50 years
Barry Bonds .474
Todd Helton .421
Mickey Mantle .421
Albert Pujols .421
Frank Thomas .419
Edgar Martínez .418
Stan Musial .417
Wade Boggs .415
Manny Ramírez .411
Lance Berkman .409

If we were to make a longer argument, we would say that the penalty for being a DH has been too harsh on Edgar. Would he have a stronger case if he had been a terrible defender, like Jim Rice, Reggie Jackson, or Willie Stargell?

Good luck, Edgar!!!!

Last Year's Best Roster Additions

2011-12-26T17:14:00.000-05:00

The final days of December are just a bit past the midpoint of baseball's hot stove season. Many big purchases have been made, while a few marquee prizes still shine in the sales brochures produced by their agents. This season, Prince Fielder, Ryan Madson, Edwin Jackson, among others, will make many millions of dollars after Christmas.

Instead of the usual guessing game as to who will end up where, let's take a quick look back at the 2011 season. Which players changing teams added the most to their clubs?

For this exercise, we are using our old standby of avWAR, or Average Wins Above Replacement from Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs. It should go without saying, Wins Above Replacement does not tell us the whole story. Unfortunately, the comment section will every so often contain a comment stating that, so I guess the disclaimer can't hurt. For the record, no one statistic tells the whole story. That's the point. More information is better. We could rank batters by Hits and pitchers by Strikeouts, and our list of Top 10 roster additions probably wouldn't vary much more than using avWAR, but avWAR is substantially more judicious than traditional counting stats of batting average and ERA.

Top 10 Roster Additions of 2011
10.) Shaun Marcum, Brewers: 3.0 avWAR
Milwaukee's #3 starter was worn out by the end of the season, but he added enough value during the Summer that he helped the Brew Crew win their first division title since they were in the American League.

9.) Melky Cabrera, Royals: 3.6 avWAR
Somehow, Melky scored 102 runs last season, and to Dayton Moore's credit, he flipped him to Brian Sabean for a lottery ticket called Jonathan Sánchez.

8.) Cameron Maybin, Padres: 3.8 avWAR

Cam Maybin is still getting better.

One of Jed Hoyer's finest moves as General Manager in San Diego was capitalizing on the organization's depth in relief pitching and plucking a potential budding star in Centerfield. Cameron Maybin will turn just 25 next year.

As he grows into his body, a season with 20 HR's and 40 SB's could be on the horizon. More importantly, he has shown the aptitude of an improving, soon-to-be dangerous hitter, a good defender and outstanding base runner.

7.) Matt Garza, Cubs: 4.0 avWAR
This was not one of our favorite Jim Handry moves, as we didn't see any need to fight for 75 wins, when the 2011 team did not look good.

As a consolation, it looks like Garza's productive 2011 campaign could benefit the team if Theo and Hoyer can flip him for better prospects than he cost a year ago. Doubtful, but there's a chance.

6.) Brandon McCarthy, Rangers: 4.2 avWAR
Blog favorite Brandon McCarthy, used impeccable control to lead the American League in FIP last season.

For all you stat-head youngsters out there, the Hardball Times defines Fielding Independent Pitching as "a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number".

5.) J.J. Hardy, Orioles: 4.5 avWAR

Who would have thought that in the sorry state the Orioles have been the last few years, they would have made one of the finest acquisitions of 2011? Not us.

The Orioles are in a terrible place, and more and more signs point to the only hope being ownership change.

Much like the Mets in the National League, the Orioles are destined for last place next season in the AL East.

4.) Lance Berkman, Cardinals: 5.1 avWAR
We're finding little comfort being right when we suggested the Cubs sign Berkman last November.

3.) Adrián Beltré, Rangers: 5.5 avWAR
The Rangers second straight run to the World Series provided a showcase of their fabulous third baseman. Not only has Adrian Beltre shown an ability to control the strike zone and hit with power, but he is the finest 3rd baseman we've seen in years.

2.) Adrián González, Red Sox: 6.75 avWAR

Boston's got 99 problems,
but 1st base ain't one.

Folks in Boston aren't too happy about the Red Sox these days, but they shouldn't really complain about having Adrian Gonzalez for the next half a dozen years. It looks as if the Boston faithful may have a trying year, or two, as their team ages quickly, while the Blue Jays improve dramatically and the Yankees and Rays remain in the AL East's Top 3 teams.

1.) Cliff Lee, Phillies: 6.8 avWAR
Watching Lee take a little less money to pitch in Philadelphia than New York satisfied fans from coast-to-coast. Does anyone know if Cliff Lee has a prescription for Adderall or Ritalin, and if so if he has ADD or ADHD? This isn't an accusation, just a claim that he looks like he's on Adderall. Doesn't he look like he is so zoned-in... especially the way he's gnawing away on his chewing gum... am I crazy about this? I can't help but think that he's one of the many players to get a prescription for speed after baseball outlawed amphetamines.

Honorable Mention: Víctor Martínez, Casey Kotchman, Hunter Pence*, and Carlos Peña.

*If Hunter Pence had spent the entire season with the Phillies, he would have comfortably placed in our Top 5, as he earned 2.4 avWAR for the Astros before being traded to Philadelphia, where he accumulated 2.6 avWAR in just 54 games.

Extra Base Hit Leaders by Position

2011-12-16T18:49:00.001-05:00

Below are the 2011 batting leaders for each position, as measured by extra base hits. For historical significance, we included the last person at his position with more in a season.

Check out the "best since" surprises at 2nd Base, Shortstop, and LF.

A lot of beer bets can be won with the trivia question of which Left Fielder hit the most extra base hits in 2010.

The stability at the corner infielders was a bit surprising, as well.

Thoughts? Comments? Please share below!

A Brief Moment in 'Why?'

2011-12-15T12:43:00.000-05:00

A few curiosities on this Thursday lunch hour:

Why is Coco Crisp being considered for Left Field? If his defense has deteriorated to the point where ha cannot effectively play Center Field, why would a team be interested in him? Fangraphs defensive metrics suggest Marlon Byrd was better defensively than Coco Crisp in 2011. Fangraphs calculates a Center Field UZR/150 of 3.0 and -6.7, respectively for Marlon and Coco last season. Defensive metrics need much larger sample sizes than one season to show anything of statistical significance. Over the past three seasons (2009-2011), Crisp stands as a superior defensive Center Fielder, UZR/150 of 3.4 to Byrd's 0.9. How their future performance will compare is anyone's guess. I'm just surprised the Cubs* and Dodgers are looking at Crisp to play Left Field.

Why hasn't Peyton Manning been placed on IR? Why wasn't Peyton Manning's surgery done earlier than right before training camp?

Why is the bounty of the Clippers CP3 deal better than what the Lakers offered? Why is Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Minnesota's unprotected 2012 first-round pick better than Lamar Odom, Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Goran Dragic, and the Knicks' first-round pick?

Why aren't the Mets getting any credit for signing Chuck James? Everyone, so far, is like 'Who the heck is Chuck James?' After a few promising campaigns with the Atlanta Braves, James disappeared for a few years (who hasn't), before reemerging for eight appearances with the Twins last year. If he has a good summer and nets the Mets a prospect in a July trade, Sandy Alderson will have a good moment, perhaps the highlight of his season.

*According to baseball-reference, the two players in all of baseball history most similar to Coco Crisp, statistically speaking, are:

Are the Cubs stockpiling Byrd's?
That's what Aramis does in the D.R.

1. Marlon Byrd
2. David DeJesus

If the Cubs sign Coco Crisp, they will have all three of them in 2011. Wouldn't that be something? It could mean the Cubs are willing to eat about 70% of the Soriano contract to send him to the American League. They should send him to the Astros, who will need a DH next season.

Yeah, Coco Crisp would have some fans on the North Side of Chicago...

Shopping for a Hitter

2011-12-13T22:51:00.000-05:00

A few numbers on a couple of free agents:

Over the past 11 years (since 2001)
Player A: .272/.343/.451, 141 HR, 415 xBH
Player B: .285/.367/.510, 273 HR, 675 xBH

Player A: 111 OPS+, .345 wOBA, 111 wRC+
Player B: 127 OPS+, .380 wOBA, 131 wRC+

Player A: 52 SB, 16 CS, .12 GDP/game
Player B: 250 SB, 33 CS, .07 GDP/game

Player A: 1.7 avWAR/600 PA
Player B: 5.1 avWAR/600 PA

Age 24 - Age 32 Seasons (9 years)
Player A: .272/.344/.453, 137 HR, 402 xBH
Player B: .284/.367/.512, 244 HR, 597 xBH

Player A: 111 OPS+, .346 wOBA, 111 wRC+
Player B: 126 OPS+, .381 wOBA, 130 wRC+

Player A: 49 SB, 16 CS, .12 GDP/game
Player B: 243 SB, 30 CS, .06 GDP/game

Player A: 1.7 avWAR/600 PA
Player B: 5.3 avWAR/600 PA

Past 3 Years (since 2009)
Player A: .276/.341/.465, 66 HR, 180 xBH
Player B: .298/.384/.497, 39 HR, 121 xBH

Player A: 117 OPS+, .351 wOBA, 117 wRC+
Player B: 141 OPS+, .380 wOBA, 140 wRC+

Player A: 24 SB, 5 CS, .15 GDP/game
Player B: 18 SB, 4 CS, .11 GDP/game

Player A: 1.9 avWAR/600 PA
Player B: 4.7 avWAR/600 PA

Today
Player A: 32 years old, 1.7 Career avWAR/600 PA
Player B: 34 years old, 4.8 Career avWAR/600 PA

They've both been consistent over the years.

The speed has basically vanished from Player B's game, and his Homerun production is not what it used to be. On the other hand, Player B is still slugging better than Player A, and Player A is right on his heels in the age department and won't be increasing his HR total nor stealing many bases in the future.

If both of these players are station-to-station batters, why not choose the one with the superior batting and on-base skills?

Earlier today, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the Rockies offered Michael Cuddyer more than the 3yr/$25M deal the Twins offered and are hoping to land Cuddyer or Carlos Beltrán, Players A and B, respectively.

Teams are open to three year deals for 32-year olds like Cuddyer and Josh Willingham, whom the Twins are looking to sign. What's the right contract length and salary for Beltrán? Whatever the fair price for Beltrán is, it would be more desirable than paying 27 million dollars to Michael Cuddyer for three years.

Will fans blame Cuddyer, or Twins management, if he leaves town?

The Remains of Willis and Cabrera

2011-12-12T22:52:00.000-05:00

Shortly after news broke of the Marlins' most recent transaction - trading Burke Badenhop to the Tampa Bay Rays for minor league catcher Jake Jefferies, the estimable Keith Law tweeted:

Badenhop is tough on righties

"And with the Badenhop trade, the Marlins no longer have any of the six players acquired for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis."

That's interesting, but a little besides the point is that some of the six players were traded for players the Marlins still have, including Jefferies. Law's keen observation stands to point out that the Marlins could still have Miguel Cabrera. Granted, some of the past few years in South Florida have been lean. Without a steady, money-spending fan base and a couple dozen more corporate sponsors, it would have been terribly hard to sustain a payroll with an extra $66 million parked on first base.

Quickly, I thought it would be interesting to take a closer look at the Cabrera/Willis for Maybin/Miller & Co swap four years ago.

Since the trade on December 7, 2004:

Dontrelle Willis

2008 avWAR*: -0.75
2009 avWAR: -0.4

Love rooting for Dontrelle!

2010 avWAR: -0.1
2011 avWAR: 0.35

Subtotal: -0.9 avWAR

*avWAR is the average Wins Above Replacement from baseball-reference and Fangraphs.

Miguel Cabrera
2008 avWAR*: 2.95
2009 avWAR: 4.7
2010 avWAR: 6.75
2011 avWAR: 7.2

Subtotal: 21.6 avWAR

Total from Marlins: 20.7 avWAR

The Marlins traded away more than 5 WAR per season, over the past four seasons, in addition to the future Wins of MiggyCab and the D-Train.. What did they receive in return?

Besides the six players (Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio (Frankie) De La Cruz, Mike Rabelo, and Dallas Trahern), the Marlins traded Maybin for a couple of guys they still have, (Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb), and of course just received Jake Jefferies for Badenhop. Unfortunately, the Marlins gave up on former first-round pick Andrew Miller, trading him for a guy they would lose on waivers to the Braves before making it to the big club: Dustin Richardson.

Cameron Maybin, 2008-2010 avWAR: 2.45
Andrew Miller, 2008-2010 avWAR: -1.2
Burke Badenhop, 2008-2011 avWAR: 1.7
Eugelio De La Cruz, 2008 avWAR: -0.75
Mike Rabelo, 2008 avWAR: -0.55
Dallas Trahern, 2008-2011 avWAR: n/a
Edward Mujica, 2011 avWAR: 1.25
Ryan Webb, 2011 avWAR: 0.55

Total to Marlins: 3.45 avWAR

In return for 20.7 WAR over the past four years, the Marlins are getting less than 1 WAR per season in return. They still have the future value of Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb, and Jake Jefferies to bank on, but will it be enough to catch up to the Hall of Fame pace of 28-year old Miguel Cabrera?

Would you want to bet your
reputation on Edward Mujica?

There are estimates out there, like ZiPS, and aging WAR curves, but no-one knows for certain what the future holds. It's a good bet that Miguel Cabrera will continue to run away from the pack, but we still don't know for sure. After all, the Marlins could wind up trading Edward Mujica this July for a future prospect who becomes a Hall of Famer. Well, it could happen but it's highly doubtful.

Chances are, the Marlins will never come close to making up for punting Miguel Cabrera after his age 24 season, nor should they. As bad as our grammar can get, and as bad as bad trades can go, the legend of this trade will get worse and worse as time goes by.

The Marlins tried getting Albert Pujols last week, and with that cash,
they could have kept Miguel Cabrera in South Florida all along.