Wednesday, July 29, 2015

MLB Starting Pitching Trade Market

This started off as a simple tweet about Andrew Cashner's career FIP as a starter. As you can see, it became much more than 140 characters, when we wanted to add the context of other starting pitchers who have been traded, or rumored to be on the market this July. First, a simple list of those pitchers, ranked by Career FIP as a starter...

Career FIP (as a Starter)
David Price 3.24
Alex Wood 3.26
Tyson Ross 3.28
Andrew Cashner 3.36
Mat Latos 3.40
Cole Hamels 3.46
Mike Fiers 3.55
Jesse Chavez 3.57
Hisashi Iwakuma 3.60
Jeff Samardzija 3.63
Carlos Carrasco 3.64
Yovani Gallardo 3.72
Dan Haren 3.76
C.J. Wilson 3.77
James Shields 3.79
Johnny Cueto 3.80
Julio Teheran 3.84
Scott Kazmir 3.89
Matt Garza 4.00
Ian Kennedy 4.02
Aaron Harang 4.13
Mike Leake 4.15
Bud Norris 4.22
Jeremy Hellickson 4.28
J.A. Happ 4.30
Kyle Lohse 4.30
Jorge de la Rosa 4.35

How about that Tyson Ross?! No wonder he's sounding like such a priority to the Cubs' brain trust, especially when considering his low salary. Pedro Moura made a similar observation when others speculated that Wood could be flipped for Hamels.


Now, there's speculation that Wood could be flipped for David Price. I don't see that making much sense, either. If you wouldn't flip him for Hamels, why would you flip him for 2-3 months of Price?

Since we are here, let's rank them again by xFIP, K:BB ratio, and Opponents' OPS, then provide an overall ranking if we give equal value to each statistic and scoring of 1 point for finishing in last place, 2 points for second-to-last, etc. As always, this is supposed to be fun, and like in old episodes of "Fat Albert", we may learn something...

Career xFIP (as a Starter)
Hisashi Iwakuma 3.21
David Price 3.36
Cole Hamels 3.36
Carlos Carrasco 3.39
Tyson Ross 3.40
Jeff Samardzija 3.49
Alex Wood 3.52
Andrew Cashner 3.54
Mike Fiers 3.56
James Shields 3.58
Yovani Gallardo 3.61
Mat Latos 3.63
Dan Haren 3.65
Jesse Chavez 3.66
Mike Leake 3.76
Johnny Cueto 3.82
Julio Teheran 3.87
Ian Kennedy 3.95
C.J. Wilson 3.95
Matt Garza 4.01
Bud Norris 4.04
Scott Kazmir 4.05
Jorge de la Rosa 4.13
Aaron Harang 4.17
Jeremy Hellickson 4.28
J.A. Happ 4.31
Kyle Lohse 4.38

Career K:BB Ratio (as a Starter)
Hisashi Iwakuma 4.59
Dan Haren 4.09
Cole Hamels 3.75
David Price 3.62
James Shields 3.56
Mike Fiers 3.48
Jeff Samardzija 3.29
Carlos Carrasco 3.12
Andrew Cashner 3.11
Julio Teheran 3.11
Mat Latos 3.05
Alex Wood 3.04
Jesse Chavez 2.93
Johnny Cueto 2.84
Ian Kennedy 2.74
Mike Leake 2.71
Aaron Harang 2.64
Yovani Gallardo 2.51
Matt Garza 2.51
Tyson Ross 2.40
Scott Kazmir 2.35
Bud Norris 2.35
Kyle Lohse 2.35
Jeremy Hellickson 2.31
C.J. Wilson 2.09
J.A. Happ 2.06
Jorge de la Rosa 1.92

Career Opponent's OPS (as a Starter)
David Price .651
Mat Latos .658
Hisashi Iwakuma .662
Andrew Cashner .665
Tyson Ross .670
Johnny Cueto .674
Cole Hamels .675
Alex Wood .681
C.J. Wilson .684
Jesse Chavez .693
Yovani Gallardo .696
Julio Teheran .696
Jeff Samardzija .703
Dan Haren .709
Matt Garza .710
Mike Fiers .712
Scott Kazmir .718
Jeremy Hellickson .718
James Shields .721
Mike Leake .735
Ian Kennedy .736
Carlos Carrasco .753
Kyle Lohse .755
J.A. Happ .756
Bud Norris .760
Jorge de la Rosa .760
Aaron Harang .763

OVERALL ARBITRARY PERFORMANCE FORMULA RANKINGS
David Price 103.5 pts
Hisashi Iwakuma 98 pts
Cole Hamels 93.5 pts - traded to Rangers
Andrew Cashner 86.5 pts
Alex Wood 83 pts - traded to Dodgers
Mat Latos 82 pts - traded to Dodgers
Tyson Ross 79 pts
Jeff Samardzija 76 pts
Mike Fiers 74 pts
Dan Haren 70 pts
Carlos Carrasco 67 pts
Jesse Chavez 67 pts
James Shields 63 pts
Johnny Cueto 60 pts - traded to Royals
Yovani Gallardo 59 pts
Julio Teheran 57 pts
C.J. Wilson 45.5 pts
Matt Garza 39.5 pts
Mike Leake 39 pts
Ian Kennedy 37.5 pts
Scott Kazmir 33 pts - traded to Astros
Aaron Harang 23 pts
Jeremy Hellickson 21 pts
Bud Norris 20.5 pts
Kyle Lohse 14.5 pts
J.A. Happ 10.5 pts
Jorge de la Rosa 9.5 pts

If we take salary commitments and years of team control into consideration, the rankings shift again. That's where we will leave it up to personal choice. Where would you, the reader, rank any of these players? Maybe just consider the top 5 or 10, based on total cost, what it would presumably take to get them, and how long they could help your favorite team?

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