Hall of Fame Potential by Game Score

There are six Starting Pitchers on this year's Hall of Fame ballot:

Rk		HOFs	JAWS
1	Roger Clemens	73	99.0
2	Curt Schilling	46	61.4
3	David Wells	40	39.1
4	Jack Morris	39	35.1
5	Woody Williams	14	24.2
6	Aaron Sele	15	17.5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/2/2012.

Jack Morris will likely
make it this year.

Sele and Williams drop off the pace pretty early in the discussion. It's surprising how good David Wells looks when compared to Jack Morris, while Morris might be inducted this year and Wells could drop off the ballot.

As we'll see in a few minutes, when looking at Average Game Score over the course of their careers, David Wells does not have a good case. It's even just below Woody Williams.

I'm not the biggest fan in the world of Game Score and would manipulate the formula a little bit out of personal preference, but these discussions are nurtured by different perspectives. There are plenty of places to go online and read Hall of Fame cases for and against certain players. At this brief moment in December, 2012, we'd like to take a look at how these 6 players compare with history, as gauged by Bill James' Game Score.

Baseball-Reference defines Game Score as, "a value created by Bill James that evaluates how good a pitcher's start was.

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (or 3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk."

It basically rewards starting pitchers for strikeouts and going deep into games while liming runs and base runners.

Five Hundred Forty Five (545) players since 1918 have started at least 200 Major League games. There are a few surprises as we look back in time, by average Game Score.

Rk	Player	GmScA	GS
1	Sandy Koufax	62.8	314
2	Pedro Martinez	61.3	409
3	Bob Gibson	61.0	482
4	Tom Seaver	60.3	647
5	Randy Johnson	59.9	603
6	Nolan Ryan	59.8	773
7	J.R. Richard	59.6	221
8	Andy Messersmith	59.3	295
9	Juan Marichal	59.2	457
10	Roger Clemens	59.0	707

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/2/2012.

Vaulting his name into any conversations on underrated starting pitchers of the 20th century, Andy Messersmith's name stands out 8th. It seems Messersmith is rarely talked about. When he is mentioned, it's because he was one of Baseball's first free agents 35 years ago, allowing him to sign a 3yr/$1M contract with the Atlanta Braves.

J.R. Richard's standing in 6th place speaks to his wild and dominant peak, also about 35 years ago. In a four-year span, 1976-79, J.R. Richard averaged 281 innings pitched in 37 starts per season. His career has an interesting curve, looking at his Strikeout Percentage, which was dominant the first three seasons of his career, good the next four, and world class once again the final 3 years.

J.R. Richard Strikeout Percentage

Year	Age	Tm	SO%
1971	21	HOU	30.2%
1972	22	HOU	22.2%
1973	23	HOU	25.3%
1974	24	HOU	15.1%
1975	25	HOU	19.5%
1976	26	HOU	17.6%
1977	27	HOU	19.6%
1978	28	HOU	26.7%
1979	29	HOU	26.6%
1980	30	HOU	27.2%
10 Yrs			22.4%
MLB Averages			13.3%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/19/2012.

Continuing the list of Average Career Game Score for anyone who started over 200 MLB games since 1918, in continuous search for Hall of Fame perspective...

Rk	Player	GmScA	GS
11	Johan Santana	58.9	284
12	Curt Schilling	58.5	436
13	Jim Palmer	58.5	521
14	Sam McDowell	58.4	346
15	Don Drysdale	58.4	465
16	Bob Veale	58.1	255
17	Jim Maloney	57.8	262
18	Whitey Ford	57.8	438
19	Mario Soto	57.7	224
20	Cole Hamels	57.6	211

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/2/2012.

Our first sighting of active players, as Johan Santana and Cole Hamels make appearances. Hamels should still have another year or two of prime performance, at least. Santana, on the other hand, probably hopes to settle in to a role of steady above-average production, with occasional feats of brilliance, on those days his change-up can't miss.

Curt Schilling supporters should be pretty jazzed about their guy placing 12th. The Hall of Fame case for Curt Schilling relies heavily on his outstanding record in the postseason: In 19 career postseason appearances (all starts), he has had 3 "bad" starts. His teams have a 14-5 record in his starts, to go along with his 11-2 record and 2.23 ERA.

To put it another way, that actually fits the context of this discussion, Schilling's Postseason Average Game Score was 64, which would put him at the top of the list we are looking through right now, as Sandy Koufax leads way with a 62.8 Avg GmSc.

Embarrassingly, I cannot say that I've ever heard of Bob Veale or Jim Maloney. At least, with recent research I did become aware of Mario Soto's acute dominance in the early 80's.

Rk	Player	GmScA	GS
21	Steve Carlton	57.5	709
22	Gaylord Perry	57.5	690
23	Justin Verlander	57.4	232
24	Don Wilson	57.4	245
25	Felix Hernandez	57.3	238
26	Fergie Jenkins	57.3	594
27	Sid Fernandez	57.2	300
28	Matt Cain	57.0	235
29	Jered Weaver	56.9	207
30	Bert Blyleven	56.9	685

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/2/2012.

"Lefty" was a No-Doubt HoF'er

Steve Carlton won four pennants and two World Championships during a 24-year career spent primarily with the Cardinals and Phillies, before brief stints with Giants, White Sox, Indians, and Twins.

Longevity cost Seaver a better ranking on this list. His average Game Score after the first 20-seasons of his career was 59, placing him near Roger Clemens.

A bunch of active stud pitcher are in this group, namely Verlander, King Felix, Matt Cain, and Jered Weaver. Ot course, this is a ranked list based on a Career Average Statistic. Like with Seaver, as these players begin to deal with aging and increasing ineffectiveness, their Average Game Scores will presumably fall. We shall see if guys like Fergie Jenkins and Bert Blyleven finish with higher career GmSc's than the active players currently ahead of them.

How about that Sid Fernandez! Talk about getting no respect. Sid Fernandez enters Rodney Dangerfield territory, with only 2 Hall of Fame votes his one year on the ballot.

Moving on...

Rk	Player	GmScA	GS
31	Jim Bunning	56.9	519
32	Dean Chance	56.9	294
33	Roy Halladay	56.8	377
34	John Smoltz	56.8	481
35	David Cone	56.8	419
36	Ron Guidry	56.8	323
37	Catfish Hunter	56.8	476
38	Warren Spahn	56.8	665
39	Jake Peavy	56.7	282
40	Don Sutton	56.7	756

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/19/2012.

John Smoltz is a slam dunk Hall of Fame choice because of his brilliance as a starting pitcher, reliever, and postseason performer in both roles.

Roy Halladay has a Hall of Fame discussion for the future, and being in the neighborhood of Warren Spahn helps.

It just dawned on me that we could be here forever if we forget that we are just looking to see where Average Game Score places the six Starting Pitchers on this year's Hall of Fame ballot, among all players who've started at least 200 games since the deadball era.

We saw that Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling ranked 10th and 12th on this list, respectively. Looking at the Top 40 highlighted some interesting names, mostly of active players who've begun what could result in Hall of Fame careers.

Still, to get to the next ranked Starting Pitcher on this year's Hall of Fame ballot, we must plummet all the way down to #125 for Jack Morris.

Rk	Player	GmScA	GS
40	Don Sutton	56.7	756
41	Denny McLain	56.7	264
42	Gary Nolan	56.5	247
43	Mickey Lolich	56.4	496
44	Mike Cuellar	56.4	379
45	Mel Stottlemyre	56.4	356
46	Luis Tiant	56.3	484
47	Vida Blue	56.2	473
48	Greg Maddux	56.1	740
49	Jose Rijo	56.0	269
50	Gary Peters	56.0	286
51	Roy Oswalt	55.8	335
52	CC Sabathia	55.8	383
53	Jon Matlack	55.8	318
54	Juan Pizarro	55.8	245
55	Kevin Brown	55.7	476
56	Steve Rogers	55.7	393
57	Larry Dierker	55.7	329
58	Bret Saberhagen	55.6	371
59	Al Downing	55.6	317
60	Bill Singer	55.6	308
61	Billy Pierce	55.6	432
62	Dwight Gooden	55.5	410
63	Robin Roberts	55.3	609
64	Dave McNally	55.2	396
65	Jerry Koosman	55.1	527
66	Sam Jones	55.1	222
67	Teddy Higuera	55.0	205
68	Sonny Siebert	55.0	307
69	Jose DeLeon	54.9	264
70	John Tudor	54.9	263
71	Phil Niekro	54.9	716
72	Ray Culp	54.9	268
73	Cliff Lee	54.8	280
74	Mike Mussina	54.8	536
75	Joe Horlen	54.8	290
76	Bob Lemon	54.8	350
77	Dan Haren	54.7	286
78	John Candelaria	54.7	356
79	Bob Turley	54.7	237
80	Dave Stieb	54.6	412
81	Mike Scott	54.6	319
82	Camilo Pascual	54.6	404
83	Sal Maglie	54.6	232
84	Tim Hudson	54.5	405
85	Johnny Antonelli	54.5	268
86	Ken Johnson	54.4	231
87	Carlos Zambrano	54.3	302
88	Denny Lemaster	54.3	249
89	Rudy May	54.2	360
90	Chris Short	54.2	308
91	Mike Garcia	54.2	281
92	Josh Beckett	54.1	304
93	James Shields	54.1	217
94	Burt Hooton	54.1	377
95	Dennis Eckersley	54.0	361
96	Fernando Valenzuela	54.0	424
97	Wilbur Wood	54.0	297
98	Stan Williams	54.0	208
99	Ben Sheets	53.9	250
100	Orel Hershiser	53.9	466
101	Bob Welch	53.9	462
102	Marty Pattin	53.9	224
103	Milt Pappas	53.9	465
104	Earl Wilson	53.8	310
105	Larry Jackson	53.8	429
106	Ralph Terry	53.8	257
107	Harvey Haddix	53.8	285
108	Zack Greinke	53.7	231
109	Kevin Appier	53.7	402
110	Steve Barber	53.7	272
111	Don Newcombe	53.7	294
112	Alex Fernandez	53.6	261
113	Mark Langston	53.6	428
114	Fred Norman	53.6	268
115	Jim O'Toole	53.6	238
116	Ramon Martinez	53.5	297
117	Ken Forsch	53.5	241
118	Dennis Leonard	53.5	302
119	Ken Holtzman	53.5	410
120	Bill Hands	53.5	260
121	Claude Osteen	53.5	488
122	Chris Carpenter	53.4	332
123	Jason Schmidt	53.4	314
124	Jimmy Key	53.4	389
125	Jack Morris	53.4	527

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/19/2012.

That's a lot of names. Many great ones, such as Maddux, Greinke, and Appier, and other not-so-inspiring guys, like Carlos Zambrano and Ramon Martinez rank higher than Morris.

The Career GmScA for Woody Williams was actually 0.1 points higher than David Wells. To find them in this setting, we need to more than double our list's size, peeking just below Ryan Dempster to the 260's and 270's...

Rk	Player	GmScA	GS
126	Frank Tanana	53.4	616
127	Rick Reuschel	53.4	529
128	George Brunet	53.4	213
129	Vic Raschi	53.4	255
130	Joe Coleman	53.3	340
131	Frank Lary	53.3	292
132	A.J. Burnett	53.2	340
133	John Smiley	53.2	280
134	Fritz Peterson	53.2	330
135	Joey Jay	53.2	203
136	Dick Donovan	53.2	273
137	Larry Jansen	53.2	237
138	Jack McDowell	53.1	275
139	Hideo Nomo	53.0	318
140	Andy Benes	53.0	387
141	Chuck Finley	53.0	467
142	Doug Drabek	53.0	387
143	Bryn Smith	53.0	255
144	Jim Kaat	53.0	625
145	Al Leiter	52.9	382
146	Charlie Hough	52.9	440
147	Jim Rooker	52.9	255
148	Pat Dobson	52.9	279
149	Orlando Hernandez	52.8	211
150	Eric Show	52.8	235
151	Jim Perry	52.8	447
152	Curt Simmons	52.8	462
153	Javier Vazquez	52.7	443
154	Tom Glavine	52.7	682
155	Frank Viola	52.7	420
156	Joaquin Andujar	52.7	305
157	John Montefusco	52.7	244
158	Mel Parnell	52.7	232
159	Dennis Martinez	52.6	562
160	Bruce Hurst	52.6	359
161	Dock Ellis	52.6	317
162	Jack Sanford	52.6	293
163	Frank Sullivan	52.6	219
164	Ted Lilly	52.5	326
165	Tommy John	52.5	700
166	Ron Reed	52.5	236
167	Gary Bell	52.5	233
168	Bill Monbouquette	52.5	263
169	Bob Rush	52.5	321
170	Barry Zito	52.4	394
171	Tom Candiotti	52.4	410
172	Mike Witt	52.4	299
173	Steve Blass	52.4	231
174	Jim McGlothlin	52.4	201
175	Mike McCormick	52.4	333
176	Johnny Podres	52.4	340
177	Pete Harnisch	52.3	318
178	Juan Guzman	52.3	240
179	Randy Jones	52.3	285
180	Clay Kirby	52.3	239
181	John Denny	52.2	322
182	Mudcat Grant	52.2	293
183	Dave Stewart	52.1	348
184	Mike Boddicker	52.1	309
185	Rick Rhoden	52.1	380
186	Jim Bibby	52.1	239
187	Nelson Briles	52.1	279
188	Bob Buhl	52.1	369
189	Carl Erskine	52.1	216
190	Ron Darling	52.0	364
191	Vinegar Bend Mizell	52.0	230
192	Greg Swindell	51.9	269
193	Ray Sadecki	51.9	328
194	Don Cardwell	51.9	301
195	Billy Hoeft	51.9	200
196	Johnny Sain	51.9	245
197	Kelvim Escobar	51.8	202
198	Rick Wise	51.8	455
199	Jim Lonborg	51.8	368
200	Clyde Wright	51.8	235
201	John Buzhardt	51.8	200
202	Bob Friend	51.8	497
203	Bartolo Colon	51.7	375
204	Andy Pettitte	51.7	491
205	Floyd Bannister	51.7	363
206	Dave Goltz	51.7	264
207	Stan Bahnsen	51.7	327
208	Wandy Rodriguez	51.6	230
209	Bruce Kison	51.6	246
210	Mark Buehrle	51.5	396
211	Darryl Kile	51.5	331
212	Erik Hanson	51.5	238
213	Jerry Reuss	51.5	547
214	Lew Burdette	51.5	373
215	Bob Shaw	51.5	223
216	Freddy Garcia	51.4	344
217	Ervin Santana	51.4	233
218	Bob Ojeda	51.4	291
219	Ed Whitson	51.4	333
220	Joe Niekro	51.4	500
221	Steve Hargan	51.4	215
222	Gene Conley	51.4	214
223	Matt Morris	51.3	276
224	Rick Reed	51.3	245
225	Scott Sanderson	51.3	407
226	Melido Perez	51.3	201
227	Oil Can Boyd	51.3	207
228	Bob Knepper	51.3	413
229	Tony Cloninger	51.3	247
230	Jim Wilson	51.3	217
231	Kevin Millwood	51.2	443
232	Brett Myers	51.2	249
233	Randy Wolf	51.2	368
234	John Lackey	51.2	294
235	Wilson Alvarez	51.2	263
236	Mark Portugal	51.2	283
237	Danny Darwin	51.2	371
238	Chris Bosio	51.2	246
239	Mike Flanagan	51.2	404
240	Larry McWilliams	51.2	224
241	Mike Krukow	51.2	355
242	Larry Christenson	51.2	220
243	Lynn McGlothen	51.2	201
244	Doc Medich	51.2	287
245	Steve Stone	51.2	269
246	Blue Moon Odom	51.2	229
247	Shane Reynolds	51.1	278
248	Denny Neagle	51.1	286
249	Don Robinson	51.1	229
250	Reggie Cleveland	51.1	203
251	Mark Gubicza	51.0	329
252	Tom Browning	51.0	300
253	Doyle Alexander	51.0	464
254	Hal Brown	51.0	211
255	Aaron Harang	50.9	293
256	Chan Ho Park	50.9	287
257	Jim Deshaies	50.9	253
258	Rick Sutcliffe	50.9	392
259	Charlie Leibrandt	50.9	346
260	Bob Forsch	50.9	422
261	Larry Gura	50.9	261
262	Woodie Fryman	50.9	322
263	Ross Grimsley	50.9	295
264	Dick Bosman	50.9	229
265	Vern Law	50.9	364
266	Ned Garver	50.9	330
267	Ryan Dempster	50.8	322
268	Woody Williams	50.8	330
269	Jeff Fassero	50.8	242
270	Buddy Black	50.8	296
271	Bill Gullickson	50.8	390
272	Jim Barr	50.8	252
273	Jack Billingham	50.8	305
274	Dick Ellsworth	50.8	310
275	Joe Nuxhall	50.8	287
276	Bob Purkey	50.8	276
277	Mark Mulder	50.7	203
278	David Wells	50.7	489
279	Andy Ashby	50.7	285
280	Dan Petry	50.7	300
281	Ray Herbert	50.7	236

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/19/2012.

Aaron Sele should be celebrated for playing well enough and long enough to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot. In the context of this discussion, he ranks 400th out of 545...

Rk	Player	GmScA	GS
282	Jarrod Washburn	50.6	300
283	Matt Clement	50.6	236
284	Moose Haas	50.6	252
285	Milt Wilcox	50.6	283
286	Pedro Ramos	50.6	268
287	Brad Radke	50.5	377
288	Ismael Valdez	50.5	288
289	Steve Avery	50.5	261
290	Todd Stottlemyre	50.5	339
291	Tim Belcher	50.5	373
292	Jim Colborn	50.5	204
293	Dontrelle Willis	50.4	202
294	Jon Lieber	50.4	327
295	Ken Hill	50.4	315
296	Zane Smith	50.4	291
297	Dennis Rasmussen	50.4	235
298	Ruben Gomez	50.4	205
299	Bronson Arroyo	50.3	323
300	Kevin Gross	50.3	368
301	Dave Roberts	50.3	277
302	Kevin Tapani	50.2	354
303	Paul Splittorff	50.2	392
304	Jim Hearn	50.2	229
305	Kirk McCaskill	50.1	242
306	Storm Davis	50.1	239
307	Tom Underwood	50.1	203
308	Steve Renko	50.1	365
309	Tom Gordon	50.0	203
310	Scott McGregor	50.0	309
311	Brad Penny	49.9	315
312	Mike Caldwell	49.9	307
313	Tom Brewer	49.9	217
314	Russ Meyer	49.9	219
315	Joe Blanton	49.8	228
316	Edwin Jackson	49.8	204
317	Pat Hentgen	49.8	306
318	Mark Gardner	49.8	275
319	Danny Jackson	49.8	324
320	Bill Wegman	49.8	216
321	Jim Clancy	49.8	381
322	Mike Torrez	49.8	458
323	Carl Morton	49.8	242
324	Jamie Moyer	49.7	638
325	Vicente Padilla	49.7	237
326	Bob Tewksbury	49.7	277
327	Dick Ruthven	49.7	332
328	Geoff Zahn	49.7	270
329	Rick Honeycutt	49.6	268
330	Derek Lowe	49.5	377
331	Mike Hampton	49.5	355
332	John Burkett	49.5	423
333	Bill Bonham	49.5	214
334	Odalis Perez	49.4	221
335	Bill Lee	49.4	225
336	Eddie Lopat	49.4	318
337	Paul Maholm	49.3	216
338	Tim Wakefield	49.3	463
339	Pedro Astacio	49.3	343
340	Jack Fisher	49.3	265
341	Kris Benson	49.2	200
342	Mike Moore	49.2	440
343	Bob Walk	49.2	259
344	Rick Mahler	49.2	271
345	Shane Rawley	49.2	230
346	Jim Slaton	49.2	360
347	Pete Falcone	49.2	217
348	Richard Dotson	49.1	295
349	Murry Dickson	49.1	338
350	Carl Pavano	49.0	284
351	Joel Pineiro	49.0	263
352	Gil Meche	49.0	243
353	Joey Hamilton	49.0	209
354	Bruce Chen	48.9	203
355	Steve Trachsel	48.9	417
356	Bobby Jones	48.9	241
357	Dave LaPoint	48.9	227
358	Ron Kline	48.9	203
359	Livan Hernandez	48.8	474
360	Charles Nagy	48.8	297
361	Doug Davis	48.7	286
362	Russ Ortiz	48.7	266
363	Terry Mulholland	48.7	332
364	Frank Castillo	48.7	268
365	Tim Leary	48.7	224
366	Jon Garland	48.6	330
367	Brett Tomko	48.6	266
368	Jeff Weaver	48.6	274
369	Dave Burba	48.6	234
370	Jim Abbott	48.6	254
371	Mike Smithson	48.6	204
372	Ray Burris	48.6	302
373	Jake Westbrook	48.5	254
374	Kenny Rogers	48.5	474
375	Sterling Hitchcock	48.5	200
376	Walt Terrell	48.5	294
377	Kyle Lohse	48.4	331
378	Rick Helling	48.4	234
379	Paul Byrd	48.3	256
380	Mike Morgan	48.3	411
381	Mike LaCoss	48.3	243
382	Lary Sorensen	48.3	235
383	Preacher Roe	48.3	261
384	Andy Hawkins	48.2	249
385	Eric Milton	48.1	270
386	Chuck Stobbs	48.1	238
387	Miguel Batista	48.0	248
388	Shawn Estes	48.0	281
389	Esteban Loaiza	48.0	333
390	Alex Kellner	48.0	250
391	Steve Gromek	48.0	225
392	Harry Brecheen	47.9	240
393	Jason Marquis	47.8	289
394	Bobby Witt	47.8	397
395	Adam Eaton	47.7	201
396	Cal McLish	47.7	209
397	John Thomson	47.6	212
398	Bill Swift	47.6	220
399	Herm Wehmeier	47.6	240
400	Johnny Schmitz	47.6	235
401	Aaron Sele	47.5	352
402	Jason Bere	47.5	203

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/19/2012.

This road to nowhere basically got us where we started. The only compelling Hall of Fame cases, from Starting Pitchers, on this year's ballots come from Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling. IT's doubtful that either pitcher will get in. Clemens, for being a no-good, dirty, cheating, lying dirt-bag. Schilling for not compiling enough Pitcher Wins, Strikeouts, or friends in the BBWAA, as he is also an ornery type.

Hopefully, we've learned something new along the way. Who knew Andy Messersmith was so good?

If you've made it this far, make sure you reward yourself in some way. You've earned it. Thanks again for reading.