Friday, July 6, 2012

Checking in on OOPS

A year ago, we looked at leaders in Opponents' OPS, then again with historical perspective.


Recapping what we learned last season:

Opponents OPS Leaders (ERA Qualifiers)
2000
AL: Pedro Martinez, Red Sox .473
NL: Kevin Brown, Dodgers .598

2001
AL: Freddy Garcia, Mariners .627
NL: Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks .583

2002
AL: Pedro Martinez, Red Sox .562
NL: Odalis Perez, Dodgers .609

2003
AL: Pedro Martinez, Red Sox .586
NL: Jason Schmidt, Giants .566

2004
AL: Johan Santana, Twins .565
NL: Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks .557

2005
AL: Johan Santana, Twins .596
NL: Roger Clemens, Astros .544

2006
AL: Johan Santana, Twins .618
NL: Chris Carpenter, Cardinals .643

2007
AL: Erik Bedard, Mariners .615
NL: Chris Young, Padres .578

2008
AL: Roy Halladay, Blue Jays .621
NL: Tim Lincecum, Giants .612

2009
AL: Felix Hernandez, Mariners .605
NL: Tim Lincecum, Giants .561

2010
AL: Felix Hernandez, Mariners .585
NL: Mat Latos, Padres .601

2011
AL: Justin Verlander, Tigers .555
NL: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers .554

Here is the 2012 OOPS leader board (min 60 IP), as of July 6 2012.

2012 MLB Opponents OPS Leaders
Brandon Beachy, Braves .507
Jered Weaver, Angels .523
Chris Sale, White Sox .546
Ryan Dempster, Cubs .564
Justin Verlander, Tigers .566
Gio Gonzalez, Nationals .568
C.J. Wilson, Angels .572
R.A. Dickey, Mets .581
James McDonald, Pirates .584
Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays .590
Stephen Strasburg, Nationals .602
Ryan Vogelsong, Giants .602
Jarrod Parker, Athletics .607
Matt Cain, Giants .612
Jake Peavy, White Sox .613
Johan Santana, Mets .618
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers .626
Zack Greinke, Brewers .634
Jason Hammel, Orioles .635
Johnny Cueto, Reds .636

Quick notes:

How will the 3rd place Braves
replace Brandon Beachy?
The Braves Brandon Beachy won't qualify for the ERA title, as he is out for the season following elbow surgery, but his first half was outstanding.

The Braves signed Ben Sheets this week, but it would be irresponsible to expect his long-shot comeback to result in another top flight starting pitcher.

In the unlikely event that Jered Weaver's second half performance sustains his outstanding rate, he will have the lowest Opponents OPS since Pedro Martinez in 2000.

Chris Sale's impressive .546 is close to Roger Clemens's steroid enhanced 2005 season.

No doubt Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein will have this statistic handy in Ryan Dempster trade discussions. "Better OPS Against than Justin Verlander" is a nice selling point.

2nd Half Warning on Jarrod Parker
Jarrod Parker has brought a bit of good luck to the A's rotation, as illustrated by the disparity between his 2.46 ERA and 4.41 xFIP.

Parker's walks haven't hurt him so much, since he's been able to stifle opponents' power. In fact, his Opponents' Onbase Percentage is actually higher than his Opponents' Slugging Percentage.

Among pitchers with at least 60 IP this season, only three pitchers have a allowed a higher OBP than SLG.

Carlos Zambrano: .338 OBP, .325 SLG
Jarrod Parker: .309 OBP, .298 SLG
C.J. Wilson: .299 OBP, .273 SLG

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