Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Shopping for a Hitter

A few numbers on a couple of free agents:

Over the past 11 years (since 2001)
Player A: .272/.343/.451, 141 HR, 415 xBH
Player B: .285/.367/.510, 273 HR, 675 xBH

Player A: 111 OPS+, .345 wOBA, 111 wRC+
Player B: 127 OPS+, .380 wOBA, 131 wRC+

Player A: 52 SB, 16 CS, .12 GDP/game
Player B: 250 SB, 33 CS, .07 GDP/game

Player A: 1.7 avWAR/600 PA
Player B: 5.1 avWAR/600 PA

Age 24 - Age 32 Seasons (9 years)
Player A: .272/.344/.453, 137 HR, 402 xBH
Player B: .284/.367/.512, 244 HR, 597 xBH

Player A: 111 OPS+, .346 wOBA, 111 wRC+
Player B: 126 OPS+, .381 wOBA, 130 wRC+

Player A: 49 SB, 16 CS, .12 GDP/game
Player B: 243 SB, 30 CS, .06 GDP/game

Player A: 1.7 avWAR/600 PA
Player B: 5.3 avWAR/600 PA

Past 3 Years (since 2009)
Player A: .276/.341/.465, 66 HR, 180 xBH
Player B: .298/.384/.497, 39 HR, 121 xBH

Player A: 117 OPS+, .351 wOBA, 117 wRC+
Player B: 141 OPS+, .380 wOBA, 140 wRC+

Player A: 24 SB, 5 CS, .15 GDP/game
Player B: 18 SB, 4 CS, .11 GDP/game

Player A: 1.9 avWAR/600 PA
Player B: 4.7 avWAR/600 PA

Today
Player A: 32 years old, 1.7 Career avWAR/600 PA
Player B: 34 years old, 4.8 Career avWAR/600 PA

They've both been consistent over the years.

The speed has basically vanished from Player B's game, and his Homerun production is not what it used to be. On the other hand, Player B is still slugging better than Player A, and Player A is right on his heels in the age department and won't be increasing his HR total nor stealing many bases in the future.

If both of these players are station-to-station batters, why not choose the one with the superior batting and on-base skills?

Earlier today, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the Rockies offered Michael Cuddyer more than the 3yr/$25M deal the Twins offered and are hoping to land Cuddyer or Carlos Beltrán, Players A and B, respectively.

Teams are open to three year deals for 32-year olds like Cuddyer and Josh Willingham, whom the Twins are looking to sign. What's the right contract length and salary for Beltrán? Whatever the fair price for Beltrán is, it would be more desirable than paying 27 million dollars to Michael Cuddyer for three years.

Will fans blame Cuddyer, or Twins management, if he leaves town?

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