Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Our Return to Dontrelle's Bandwagon

Dontrelle Willis is four games into his comeback. Carrying a 3.52 ERA and 0-1 record into his start in Houston on Wednesday night, D-Train fans have reason for optimism.

According to Fangraphs, Dontrelle Willis has been throwing his changeup better than any starter in baseball, min 20 ip.

Runs Saved per 100 Change Ups
Dontrelle Willis, Reds 8.85
Mike Minor, Braves 4.39
We're on the bandwagon!
Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies 4.32
Kyle McClellan, Cardinals 4.10
Felix Hernandez, Mariners 3.83

In his limited action since being recalled from Louisville, Dontrelle's walks per 9 innings, BB/9, have returned to passable levels.

Dontrelle Willis BB/9 by Team
Marlins: 3.0
Tigers: 8.2
Diamondbacks: 10.9
Reds: 3.9

Similarly, Dontrelle's SIERA numbers are much improved, even if nowhere near Zack Greinke's level.

Come to the Cubs!
Dontrelle Willis SIERA by Season
2003: 3.95
2004: 4.37
2005: 3.86
2006: 4.59
2007: 4.74
2008: 8.31
2009: 6.42
2010: 5.86
2011: 4.15

Facing the Quadruple-A Astros should improve his overall numbers even more. With all due respect to Astros' rookie sensation, Jordan Lyles, I wholeheartedly expect Dontrelle Willis to earn his first Major League win since June 5, 2010.

Let him bat 1st, daddy
The Reds are still under .500 and in 4th place, at the moment, but Dusty Baker knows something about getting his competitive teams to finish strong.

Dusty may have difficulty grasping certain nuances of this ever-evolving sport, but he knows hot to get his guys to battle and win playoff births.

The Brewers are still our choice to win the Central, but we feel the Reds have a better chance than St. Louis or Pittsburgh.

Ugh, I can't wait for the Cubs to be relevant again.

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