Monday, March 28, 2011

Ranking Pitchers by Win Projections

Awesome reader Gavin emailed a question in today. He writes...
In a real simple season long pool. All it is, is u take 20 pitchers, u get 1 point per win and whoever has the most accumulated wins at the end wins.
Have you seen the Halladay/Ruiz ad?
Any suggestions on the 20 (particularly sleepers)?
People can own the same guy, so likely everyone will own CC, Halladay etc.
I'm not going to spend much time shouting about why predicting pitcher wins is such a crapshoot.

Briefly, it's so unpredictable because luck and unknown future circumstances are such key factors to pitching results, especially with Wins. Not only does a pitcher have to pitch relatively well, on average, but he must also receive enough support from the team's offense, defense, and bullpen to gain a Win.

He may not look like it
here, but Felix is the King
As a recent example, simply look at how well Felix Hernandez pitched in 2010 to win 13 games, compared with how much worse John Lackey or Jon Garland pitched winning 14.

To really do the work, it would be important to factor in a team's projected run support, and maybe assign some value to their team defense projections - if there are such things.

Keeping things simple, what I did for Gavin was averaged out the projected Win totals from Bill James, ZiPS, Marcel, RotoChamp, and Fangraphs fan crowd-sourcing.

Here are the results, remember this is just for pitcher Wins - not overall roto value, in a Top 50 format...

  1. Roy Halladay: 18 wins
  2. C.C. Sabathia
  3. Jon Lester: 17 wins
  4. Justin Verlander: 16 wins
  5. Tim Lincecum
  6. Cliff Lee
  7. Ubaldo Jimenez: 15 wins
  8. Felix Hernandez
  9. David Price
  10. Zack Greinke: 14 wins
  11. Matt Cain
  12. Dan Haren
  13. Jered Weaver
  14. Roy Oswalt
  15. Tommy Hanson
  16. Cole Hamels
  17. John Danks: 13 wins
  18. Clay Buchholz
  19. Clayton Kershaw
  20. Josh Johnson
  21. Francisco Liriano
  22. Tim Hudson
  23. Ricky Romero
  24. John Lackey
  25. Yovani Gallardo
  26. Chad Billingsley
  27. Trevor Cahill
  28. Max Scherzer
  29. Colby Lewis: 12 wins
  30. Ted Lilly
  31. C.J. Wilson
  32. Derek Lowe
  33. Phil Hughes
  34. Mark Buerhle
  35. Carl Pavano
  36. Ricky Nolasco
  37. Matt Garza
  38. Randy Wolf
  39. Gavin Floyd
  40. Gio Gonzalez
  41. A.J. Burnett: 11 wins
  42. Carlos Zambrano
  43. Anibal Sanchez
  44. Dallas Braden
  45. Josh Beckett
  46. Randy Wells
  47. Wade Davis: 10 wins
  48. Brett Myers
  49. Clayton Richard
  50. Brett Anderson
We purposefully omitted Mat Latos and Chris Carpenter due to future injury concerns. If you like one of them, feel free to consider them for yourselves.

We did not penalize Zack Greinke and expect him to have a very strong season after sitting out the first few weeks.

Thanks to Fangraphs and Baseball Think Factory for the statistics!

No comments:

Post a Comment