Thursday, November 25, 2010

Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks

This week, we've been working on a pretty neat analysis of baseball players in their primes.  There should be some interesting new tidbits on guys ranging from Miguel Cabrera to Brett Wallace.

As we look at today's National Football League festivities, the games look like they are going to be very good.

Look, he's being a jet!
Last week was hot.  I was at the incredible Jets/Texans game.  More importantly, my picks went 10-6, while Weino bounced back from two sub-.500 weeks to go 12-3.

Personally, to make these picks I use the Simmons method of trying to predict the lines, then wagering off the arbitrage between my predicted line and the actual line.  For example, last week, I thought the Bears/Dolphins line should have been Bears -2.  It was Miami -1.5, so I jumped all over the Bears +1.5 opportunity.

This week is a test; I'm going to Zig when Vegas expects me to Zag.  My guesses for this week were Pats -3, Saints -3, Jets -6.  I selected the correct favorites but didn't give enough points.  The method we practice should tell us to take the underdogs, and therefore the points.  But, while nonsense, it's a holiday.  I'm feeling like our instincts were right, but we were a bit stingy with the spreads this morning.  So, as you can deduce, these are our picks for today:

Danny Woodhead could
win a Turkey Leg today.
Pats -7 @ Detroit
Saints -4 @ Dallas
Jets -9 vs Bengals

Since it's a holiday, and these are Nationally televised games, let's select our picks to click*: Danny Woodhead, Drew Breese, and Shonn Greene.

*Yes, it's true.  Picks to click are an homage to old White Sox broadcasts of my youth.  I think they still do it, and I would say that picks to click are the only things I've ever considered to be positive contributions from Hawk Harrelson.

None of these picks are locks.  We'll have three locks with our picks for Sunday/Monday, coming out this weekend.  Enjoy your holiday, the games, and please remember to be thankful for something.

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