Saturday, July 17, 2010

Fun Trading with rZIP's

This morning, we glanced at a couple of guys' Rest-of-Season ZIPS Projection numbers from the invaluable Fangraphs site. One player we looked at is in his prime, the other appears to be having more of a renaissance.

In some time circa 2006-2007 a good number of people started thinking that Hanley Ramirez could become the best all around player in baseball.

Before the 2008 Season, Buster Olney said he could be the next $200 million dollar man.

Here are some numbers from Hanley's first 3 seasons in the Show, starting with his triple/slash lines of BA/OBP/SLG.

2006: .292/.353/.480, 17 HR, 119 R, 59 RBI, 51 SB
2007: .332/.386/.562, 29 HR, 125 R, 81 RBI, 51 SB
2008: .301/.400/.540, 33 HR, 125 R, 67 RBI, 35 SB

The BABIP numbers for each season were remarkable (.343, .353, and .329, respectively). There was some ill-advised chatter before the 2009 season that Hanley Ramirez was going to change his game. He wouldn't be able to steal as many basses, he'd become more of a power hitter, move to the #3 spot in the order, and bulk up. He would presumably not utilize his speed as much as a leadoff hitter.

In 2009, Hanley Ramirez won the National League batting championship and put together this monster line:

.342/.410/.543, 24 HR, 101 R, 106 RBI, 27 SB

The loss in SB's was more than compensated for by the increase in RBI, and improved lineup protection gave him better pitches to hit to a .342 average. Those are two stats I usually ignore to attempt to predict future performance, but for revisionist history it works.

So, why did we look at rZIP's this morning? Is Hanley Ramirez someone we would want to trade for in rotisserie baseball? He's not a keeper, so let's just see how his projections look for the rest of 2010.

Hanley Ramirez 2010 rZIP
12 HR, 16 SB, .392 OBP, .528 SLG, .402 wOBA

The computer is probably expecting him to have a better 2nd half than 1st half. Hanley's 2010 line drive percentage is 15.7%, but his career average is 18.6%. His popup number has also been really high this season, IFFB% 14% (Career 11%).

Magglio Ordoñez is the other guy we looked up. The trade deadline for MLB is about two weeks away, and rotisserie league trading blocks are heating up, as well. We were offered a trade of Hanley Ramirez & Magglio Ordoñez for a few of our guys. Magglio was a beast in Chicago. He was a Cub killer in the cross town classic, and a preposterously good hitter for five seasons from 1999-2003. The White Sox traded him to the division rival Tigers after an injury riddled '04 season made the organization wary of signing him to a lucrative extension. It was actually the alternative surgery he seeked out in Europe for his knee that scared White Sox management from throwing bags of money at the Venezuelan Pauly Shore.

Since then, I pretty much wrote off Magglio as too much of an injury risk to count on in fantasy baseball. Still, this chance to get Hanley makes it look like we might be chanting Oh-eeh-oh, Maaaaagglio while rooting for our team. To the rZIP numbers...

Magglio Ordoñez 2010 rZIP
8 HR, 1 SB, .369 OBP, .472 SLG, .368 wOBA

We'll accept the trade. We'll give Mags a chance. Even if he totally tanks, we'll just drop him. It's not every day that you have a chance to acquire a 26-year-old Shortstop who can do it all. It's not even every decade, when you may get a chance like this. The price? Keepers Ian Stewart & Alexei Ramirez, and fellow non-keeper Stephen Strasburg. Anyone think we paid too much? Let the discussion begin.

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