
Here's our monthly snapshot of what we feel will happen this October...
Playoff Teams
National League
National League
Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, & Cardinals (wc)
American League
Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, & Yankees (wc)
MVP
NL: Albert Pujols, Cardinals
AL: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
NL: Tim Lincecum, Giants
AL: Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
Rookie of the Year
NL: Colby Rasmus, Cardinals
AL: Elvis Andrus, Rangers
Manager of the Year
NL: Tony LaRussa, Cardinals
Postseason Predictions
NLDS
Cubs over Phillies
Dodgers over Cardinals
NLCS
Cubs over Dodgers
ALDS
Red Sox over Angels
Yankees over Tigers
ALCS
Red Sox over Yankees
2009 World Series
Red Sox over Cubs
Divisional At-a-Glance
Please keep in mind, this is part of our running experiment of what we are "thinking" on the first of each month. We will always stick with our Opening Day predictions for any sort of record keeping. This is more of a monthly diary of the soap opera that is major league baseball.
NL East
The Phillies GM, Ruben Amaro Jr, did a fantastic service to the obnoxious fans of Philadelphia. He got them another frontline starter with Cy Young credentials, Cliff Lee, without giving up key prospects Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, or Michael Taylor. This vaults the Phillies to favorites to win the National League again this season, while being competitive for years to come.
The Marlins and Braves have done an admirable job of staying in the hunt. Florida made a nice move acquiring Nick Johnson, from the Nationals. He will help them with his ability to get on base, as well as his ability to get Emilio Bonifacio and his .270 wOBA. The Braves have also been practicing the art of addition by subtraction. They jettisoned Jeff Francoeur and Casey Kotchman out of town and relewgated Kelly Johnson to the bench, in favor of Martin Prado.

NL Central
The Cubs, Cardinals, Astros, and Brewers are involved in what could be the best race of the year. We feel the Astros & Brewers may have fallen into the second tier of these teams. Injuries to Berkman and Oswalt may be too much for Houston to overcome. Plus, neither team made any last minute moves to get better. Felipe Lopez was an exciting move by the Brewers, but the Brewers need to get more pitching to improve their standing. Maybe they can find some that gets through waivers. Sorry Cheeseheads, but signing Corey Patterson is definitely not a step in the right direction.

NL West
As we've known all season, the Dodgers will win this division. I love the addition of George Sherrill to the bullpen. He and Broxton are going to be incredible together. Against lefties this season, Sherrill's OPS allowed has been a mindboggling .356. Again, that is a .356 On-Base PLUS Slugging. (h/t R.J. Anderson)

AL East
The titans of industry still reside in the AL East. The Yankees are in first place. Their offense is terrific, and they've been getting marvelous pitching from a variety of places, namely Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Mariano Rivera. I can't say I like the Jerry Hairston trade, but at least they aren't trading the farm for a number 3 or 4 starter.
Boston has struggled lately to score runs, plus they've suffered from poor defense and some inconsistency in the starting rotation. Their recent acquisition of Victor Martinez should help them score runs, but he offers little more than flexibility with the leather. He can allow them to platoon Varitek, Lowell, and Ortiz at the C/3b/DH spot, while having Victor play everyday. On days he plays first, Kevin Youkilis will slide over to third.
Tampa didn't make any moves, but they're the defending champs. They need their starting rotation to carry them on a tremendous hot streak the rest of the way, if they're going to make the playoffs. That means that Scott Kazmir and David Price need to pitch a lot better. I think Price is a better bet to figure it out. Kazmir looks/sounds injured to me.

My instincts tell me that Toronto erred in holding on to Halladay. They won't get as much for him in the offseason, or next year. Hopefully, for them, they'll have a better season next year and have Halladay pitching meaningful games. They have a lot of good pitchers, and should be able to build an offense around Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Travis Snider, Edwin Encarnacion, the Wells/Rios Experience, and power hitting catcher J.P. Arecibia.
AL Central
I've been leaning towards the Twins all year, while still leaving hope for Jimmy Leyland's club in Detroit. In fact, earlier this spring or summer, I went to a baby naming ceremony. At the point of the service where they ask people for anyone that they would like to have blessed, a gentleman who was also there for the baby naming asked the rabbi to bless Jeremy Bonderman. Afterwards, I discussed baseball with this old-school Tigers fan from Detroit.

The Twins' chances took a blow when they lost Kevin Slowey for the season, and that's the second reason I'm predicting the Tigers will finish first. But, I have to consider that this is just Kevin Slowey. He's not really that fantastic. Although it seems extremely unlikely, if Francisco Liriano can have a vintage second half, they'll be in contention the last week of the season.
If I had to pick, I'd say the White Sox will finish in second place. I've never liked them, as you know, but they did get a stud in Peavy. He may not be lights out ever again in his career, but if he can throw, he'll be able to win games. The White Sox also have some potential thunder to call up in September with trade chip Josh Fields and Double-A baby Dayan Viciedo.

The Royals so bad... I mean, look at what the Yuniesky Betancourt trade has done to Joe Posnanski.
AL West
The AL West is rapidly becoming a very likeable division. The Angels and Athletics have ruled this land for quite a while. I've always appreciated the Angels National League style of play, as well as the way Mike Scioscia can build a bullpen with nasty boys at the end. The A's, of course, have the Hollywood story of Moneyball and their hotshot GM, Billy Beane, who builds competive rosters (usually) despite miniscule payrolls.
I begun to love rooting for Nolan Ryan and Jack Zduriencik, who are currently running the Rangers and Mariners, respectively. They each have been charged with the daunting task of rebuilding two lousy franchises, and they each have a process I respect.
Ryan has a philosophy on pitching that is different from others in the game. He's protecting his young pitchers, but he also has them strengthen their arms and throw more in the offseason than any team outside of Japan.

What does all of this tell us? Nothing really. It's likely going to be the Yankees and Red Sox battling it out against the Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, or Cardinals. Maybe the best thing about this great game is how even the lousy teams have great stories, great characters. Until we meet again, go cubbies...
Injuries to Berkman and Oswalt may be too much to overcome? Berkman is back in a few days and Roy will probably miss one start....a little early in the season for that kind of statement. How about just that they aren't very good.
ReplyDeleteBet you the Cards win the division.