Matt Harvey was unstoppable tonight. The White Sox never had a chance against him. As just about anyone reading this knows, Harvey went 9 innings, facing 28 batters, retiring 27.
19 minutes ago
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
Wednesday, May 1, 2013
MLB Attendance Trends
One month into the season, let's check out the early returns from box offices around the league. Similar to other statistical analysis, we are dealing with a small sample that could potentially skew results, for example, by weather.
Presenting, Baseball-Reference's year-to-year attendance trend chart through April 30, 2013 games.
Most attendance trends are about what we'd expect. The Dodgers and Blue Jays made the splashiest changes since last May, and their fans bought into it before Opening Day. A few surprises include the returns in Boston and Texas.
The Red Sox and Rangers have the best and second best records in baseball, respectively. Yet, they are drawing about 5,000 and 3,000 fewer fans per game than they did at this point last year.
Cleveland's April attendance is not trending too badly year-to-year, but it is the worst in the league. What has the weather been like in Cleveland? How are the 2013 Cleveland Indians underdrawing the Miami Marlins? They're drawing at about the same rate as last season. I haven't been watching much Weather Channel lately; does Cleveland turn into Siberia in April?
The Marlins are outdrawing Cleveland by over 4,300 fans per game. Cleveland's dismal attendance is a terrible business return for investing in Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and others this winter.
Here is Cleveland's attendance in April 2013 home games:
The A's, Royals, and Mariners have essentially the same per game attendance as the shamed Marlins, at about 19,000 per game.
Oakland's attendance continues to underperform their on-field accomplishments. The ballpark remains an issue, but should that be enough to cost Oakland fans the chance to have a Major League team on their side of the Bay?
The Royals look dangerously close to taking over the hearts of Kansas City once again, as their .583 winning percentage is the 8th best in Baseball. They are just a half game behind the first-place Tigers. Sabermetrically inclined Royals fans would be pleased to know their 14-10 record matches up perfectly with their Pythagorian Win-Loss. PECOTA playoff odds on Baseball Prospectus currently gives them a 23% chance to make the postseason, which is better than Baltimore's and three times as high as Toronto's.
In Seattle, the retractable roof eliminates most weather issues that could affect attendance, and we know it has to do with disappointing results over the past few years. Mariners fans are calling for an allegorical guillotine for Jack Z and the scapegoats.
The Mariners are 12-17, with an offense taking them nowhere. Remember when we thought the Mariners offense was bad last season, as they averaged an AL-worst 3.8 runs scored per game? This year, they're scoring 3.3 runs per game.
Presenting, Baseball-Reference's year-to-year attendance trend chart through April 30, 2013 games.
| Rk | Tm | 2012_AttendpGm | 2013_AttendpGm | DiffPerGame ▾ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TOR | 24,210 | 31,820 | 7,610 |
| 2 | LAD | 39,401 | 46,238 | 6,837 |
| 3 | WSN | 25,791 | 31,813 | 6,022 |
| 4 | LAA | 33,784 | 38,736 | 4,952 |
| 5 | BAL | 23,193 | 26,398 | 3,206 |
| 6 | SDP | 24,840 | 27,287 | 2,447 |
| 7 | ATL | 28,958 | 30,331 | 1,374 |
| 8 | DET | 33,410 | 34,502 | 1,092 |
| 9 | ARI | 26,382 | 27,264 | 882 |
| 10 | TBR | 20,822 | 21,322 | 500 |
| 11 | CHW | 19,912 | 20,105 | 194 |
| 12 | SFG | 41,598 | 41,762 | 164 |
| 13 | CLE | 14,734 | 14,711 | -23 |
| 14 | OAK | 19,248 | 19,153 | -94 |
| 15 | STL | 41,268 | 40,956 | -312 |
| 16 | NYM | 26,797 | 26,344 | -453 |
| 17 | SEA | 20,186 | 19,115 | -1,070 |
| 18 | CIN | 26,849 | 25,690 | -1,158 |
| 19 | KCR | 21,435 | 19,450 | -1,985 |
| 20 | PIT | 23,058 | 20,616 | -2,442 |
| 21 | COL | 31,196 | 28,648 | -2,548 |
| 22 | HOU | 22,808 | 20,131 | -2,677 |
| 23 | TEX | 41,719 | 38,802 | -2,917 |
| 24 | NYY | 40,864 | 37,278 | -3,586 |
| 25 | MIL | 35,086 | 30,677 | -4,409 |
| 26 | BOS | 37,562 | 32,439 | -5,123 |
| 27 | MIN | 33,068 | 27,731 | -5,337 |
| 28 | CHC | 37,100 | 31,361 | -5,739 |
| 29 | PHI | 45,013 | 36,653 | -8,359 |
| 30 | MIA | 30,180 | 19,043 | -11,137 |
| total | 29,639 | 28,822 | -817 |
Most attendance trends are about what we'd expect. The Dodgers and Blue Jays made the splashiest changes since last May, and their fans bought into it before Opening Day. A few surprises include the returns in Boston and Texas.
The Red Sox and Rangers have the best and second best records in baseball, respectively. Yet, they are drawing about 5,000 and 3,000 fewer fans per game than they did at this point last year.
Cleveland's April attendance is not trending too badly year-to-year, but it is the worst in the league. What has the weather been like in Cleveland? How are the 2013 Cleveland Indians underdrawing the Miami Marlins? They're drawing at about the same rate as last season. I haven't been watching much Weather Channel lately; does Cleveland turn into Siberia in April?
The Marlins are outdrawing Cleveland by over 4,300 fans per game. Cleveland's dismal attendance is a terrible business return for investing in Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and others this winter.
Here is Cleveland's attendance in April 2013 home games:
| Date | Opp | Attendance |
|---|---|---|
| Monday, Apr 8 | NYY | 41,567 |
| Tuesday, Apr 9 | NYY | 12,663 |
| Friday, Apr 12 | CHW | 11,864 |
| Saturday, Apr 13 | CHW | 11,422 |
| Sunday, Apr 14 | CHW | 11,682 |
| Tuesday, Apr 16 | BOS | 9,143 |
| Wednesday, Apr 17 | BOS | 10,282 |
| Thursday, Apr 18 | BOS | 12,936 |
| Tuesday, Apr 30 | PHI | 10,841 |
The A's, Royals, and Mariners have essentially the same per game attendance as the shamed Marlins, at about 19,000 per game.
Oakland's attendance continues to underperform their on-field accomplishments. The ballpark remains an issue, but should that be enough to cost Oakland fans the chance to have a Major League team on their side of the Bay?
The Royals look dangerously close to taking over the hearts of Kansas City once again, as their .583 winning percentage is the 8th best in Baseball. They are just a half game behind the first-place Tigers. Sabermetrically inclined Royals fans would be pleased to know their 14-10 record matches up perfectly with their Pythagorian Win-Loss. PECOTA playoff odds on Baseball Prospectus currently gives them a 23% chance to make the postseason, which is better than Baltimore's and three times as high as Toronto's.
In Seattle, the retractable roof eliminates most weather issues that could affect attendance, and we know it has to do with disappointing results over the past few years. Mariners fans are calling for an allegorical guillotine for Jack Z and the scapegoats.
The Mariners are 12-17, with an offense taking them nowhere. Remember when we thought the Mariners offense was bad last season, as they averaged an AL-worst 3.8 runs scored per game? This year, they're scoring 3.3 runs per game.
 |
| Dustin Ackley's 56% GB% is driving fans mad. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images) |
Surprising Season Stats (Small Sample Size)
Red Sox pitchers have the highest K% and BB% in the American League. Neither statistic is particularly surprising, but the duality of the records is rare. Since 1990, it has happened twice, both by the Cubs:
In their doomed 2003 season, the Cubs lead the NL with a 22.6% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. They also lead both leagues with a 19.6% K% and 10.8% BB% in 2006.
The year, the Red Sox have 26.7% strikeout and 10.1% walk rates.
***
Switching to team hitting stats, Cubs batters have the best Extra Base Hit percentage in the National League (8.8%, NL Avg. 7.3%).
One of the reasons the 2013 Cubs struggle to score runs is their 5.9% walk rate, the lowest in both leagues. Only one Cub has double digit walks this year, Anthony Rizzo has 11. Even Justin Smoak has more than a dozen walks this year.
***
Salvador Perez has an uncharacteristically extreme KK/B ratio. Last season in 305 plate appearances, Salvy Perez struck out 27 times. This year, he already has 18 K's. Perez's 20.2% K-rate equals the league average but is almost twice as high as his career average.
2011: 2.86 K/BB (2.23 AL Avg.)
2012: 2.25 K/BB (2.41 AL Avg.)
2013: 18.00 K/BB (2.43 AL Avg.)
On the positive side, as Chad Young points out, Salvador Perez has seen the fifth biggest gain in average fly ball distance in baseball.
Player | 2013 Distance | 2012 Distance | delta
Dexter Fowler 342.1 - 278.8 = 63.2 feet
Todd Frazier 330.7 - 280 = 50.7 feet
Todd Helton 333.6 - 283.5 = 50.1 feet
Colby Rasmus 319 - 273.5 = 45.5 feet
Salvador Perez 330.6 - 284.5 = 44.1 feet
Read Chad's piece on Fangraphs here.
In their doomed 2003 season, the Cubs lead the NL with a 22.6% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. They also lead both leagues with a 19.6% K% and 10.8% BB% in 2006.
The year, the Red Sox have 26.7% strikeout and 10.1% walk rates.
 |
| Andrew Miller gets lots of K's and BB's |
***
Switching to team hitting stats, Cubs batters have the best Extra Base Hit percentage in the National League (8.8%, NL Avg. 7.3%).
One of the reasons the 2013 Cubs struggle to score runs is their 5.9% walk rate, the lowest in both leagues. Only one Cub has double digit walks this year, Anthony Rizzo has 11. Even Justin Smoak has more than a dozen walks this year.
 |
| Anthony Rizzo is a perennial silver lining. |
***
Salvador Perez has an uncharacteristically extreme KK/B ratio. Last season in 305 plate appearances, Salvy Perez struck out 27 times. This year, he already has 18 K's. Perez's 20.2% K-rate equals the league average but is almost twice as high as his career average.
2011: 2.86 K/BB (2.23 AL Avg.)
2012: 2.25 K/BB (2.41 AL Avg.)
2013: 18.00 K/BB (2.43 AL Avg.)
On the positive side, as Chad Young points out, Salvador Perez has seen the fifth biggest gain in average fly ball distance in baseball.
Player | 2013 Distance | 2012 Distance | delta
Dexter Fowler 342.1 - 278.8 = 63.2 feet
Todd Frazier 330.7 - 280 = 50.7 feet
Todd Helton 333.6 - 283.5 = 50.1 feet
Colby Rasmus 319 - 273.5 = 45.5 feet
Salvador Perez 330.6 - 284.5 = 44.1 feet
Read Chad's piece on Fangraphs here.
 |
| Salvy Perez has enough youth and tools to improve. |
Red Sox players' description of Salvador Perez:"The Beast." Majority opinion:no AL catcher with better hands or arm. Star.
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) April 23, 2013
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
MLB Ballplayers on Vine
A couple of weeks before getting traded from Oakland to Houston, Travis Blackley set off his first Vine.
Penguins Visit the Tampa Bay Rays
Penguins visited the Tampa Bay Rays' clubhouse today, reinforcing the fact that Joe Maddon is a progressive thinker. FWIW, I wouldn't leave Kyle Farnsworth alone with one of those things. Go Rays!
I checked with Elias. Cliff is the first penguin ever to sit in the chair of a @mlb manager. #MaddonsMenagerie twitter.com/HallerDave/sta…
— Dave Haller (@HallerDave) April 24, 2013
MLB Team-by-Team At-a-Glance
More than half of today's games are matinees, including a couple of 12:35 ET starts in Baltimore and Cincinnati. So, we don't have all afternoon to craft a comprehensive This Moment in Baseball post. Instead, let's run down both leagues with one note on each team.
Thursday, April 11, 2013
2013 Leadoff Hitter Power Rankings
The importance of batting order construction is a polarizing debate. I tend to lean towards evidence that batting order construction ultimately means very little. The one spot in the lineup that tends to be the most critical to scoring runs is the lead off hitter. Without commercial interruption, please enjoy our 2013 Leadoff Hitter Power Rankings:
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Quick Notes around Baseball
Starling Marte, of the Pirates, has 2 hits in 4 straight games.
Colby Rasmus has 4 this year, 3 of which are home runs. He'll probably hit 20+ HR's and hit .220 for the Blue Jays.
Make no mistake, Matt Harvey is a dominant pitcher. The Mets blew the doors off the Roy Halladay Farewell Tour with Harvey on the hill. Harvey's next start, against the lowly Minnesota Twins on Sunday at 2pm ET is appointment television. How bad are the Twins right now? As of Wednesday morning, Fangraphs has them ranked 27th out of 30th in Wins Above Replacement, and the only team with a Blutarsky esque 0.0 WAR. Even worse, Baseball-Reference has them ranked last, with a negative (-0.7) WAR. Speaking of the Twins offense, specifically, they are also ranked last with minus-7 Runs Above Replacement.
In his last five games, Jose Reyes has reached base safely 14 times. Factoring into the unfortunate 2-5 start for the Blue Jays must be that Jose Reyes has a .516 On Base Percentage but has only scored 5 runs.
Wilin Rosario stole two bases off Tim Lincecum and Hector Sanchez. The box score shows the first stolen base was with Michael Cuddyer on 3rd base, and the second one was on a swinging strikeout. I'm not sure how much any of that factored into the stolen base, but I wouldn't expect Rosario to break out for double digit steals this season. He's listed at 5'11 220 and looks bigger.
Mike Moustakas got his first RBI of the season last night. His teammate, Alex Gordon, on the other hand is having a fine season. Gordon has reached base safely in all eight Royals games this year, scoring 9 runs with an attractive 1.035 OPS.
Adam Lind, who started out the season in the best shape of his life, and 0-for-13, was kept out of the starting lineup the last two games, but is back in there this afternoon, batting 5th between Edwin Encarnacion and J.P. Arencibia.
In his last 3 starts, the Cardinals' Matt Carpenter has 7 hits and 7 runs scored.
The Braves have inserted Evan Gattis into the heart of their lineup, and he delivered with his second HR of the year last night. It's been almost two days since Justin Upton hit his 6th home run of the year. So, he's probably due for another one today.
Today's pick to click is Jordan Zimmermann vs the White Sox.
We're pretty jazzed for the Nationals / Braves series this weekend.
Colby Rasmus has 4 this year, 3 of which are home runs. He'll probably hit 20+ HR's and hit .220 for the Blue Jays.
Make no mistake, Matt Harvey is a dominant pitcher. The Mets blew the doors off the Roy Halladay Farewell Tour with Harvey on the hill. Harvey's next start, against the lowly Minnesota Twins on Sunday at 2pm ET is appointment television. How bad are the Twins right now? As of Wednesday morning, Fangraphs has them ranked 27th out of 30th in Wins Above Replacement, and the only team with a Blutarsky esque 0.0 WAR. Even worse, Baseball-Reference has them ranked last, with a negative (-0.7) WAR. Speaking of the Twins offense, specifically, they are also ranked last with minus-7 Runs Above Replacement.
In his last five games, Jose Reyes has reached base safely 14 times. Factoring into the unfortunate 2-5 start for the Blue Jays must be that Jose Reyes has a .516 On Base Percentage but has only scored 5 runs.
 |
| Power? Yes. Speed? Not so much. |
Mike Moustakas got his first RBI of the season last night. His teammate, Alex Gordon, on the other hand is having a fine season. Gordon has reached base safely in all eight Royals games this year, scoring 9 runs with an attractive 1.035 OPS.
Adam Lind, who started out the season in the best shape of his life, and 0-for-13, was kept out of the starting lineup the last two games, but is back in there this afternoon, batting 5th between Edwin Encarnacion and J.P. Arencibia.
In his last 3 starts, the Cardinals' Matt Carpenter has 7 hits and 7 runs scored.
The Braves have inserted Evan Gattis into the heart of their lineup, and he delivered with his second HR of the year last night. It's been almost two days since Justin Upton hit his 6th home run of the year. So, he's probably due for another one today.
Today's pick to click is Jordan Zimmermann vs the White Sox.
We're pretty jazzed for the Nationals / Braves series this weekend.
Thursday, April 4, 2013
What Happened Last Night?
In honor of MLB's first 15-game day, and as we did in June of '09, we present our brief notes from perusing the box scores, attempting to answer 'What happened last night?'
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Baseball's Season of the GIF
We have yet to determine the finest GIF from Sunday night's game, but Monday had A.J. Burnett messing around with a white powder. Tuesday night, at a Blue Jays game, a fired up fan caught a bat that flew into the stands. Slightly insane playfulness ensued:
While this guy's family seeks out counselling, the rest of us can look forward to Wednesday being our first day with a full, 15-game schedule. Make more GIF's and enjoy the games!
While this guy's family seeks out counselling, the rest of us can look forward to Wednesday being our first day with a full, 15-game schedule. Make more GIF's and enjoy the games!
Monday, April 1, 2013
A.J. Burnett and Things Fall Apart
Courtesy of something called DeckersDelight on the burgeoning /baseball subreddit, we get an Opening Day gif for the ages, starring the Pittsburgh Pirates' A.J. Burnett and his resin bag.
Is it rosin bag? Or, resin bag? Ah, who cares?
Happy Opening Day!
Is it rosin bag? Or, resin bag? Ah, who cares?
Happy Opening Day!
Monday, March 25, 2013
The Tantalizing Style and Tools of Jairo Beras
The Texas Rangers' toolsie teen prospect, Jairo Beras, is suspended until July 1st but still allowed to play in unofficial, minor league Spring Training games.
Monday, March 18, 2013
Position-by-Position-at-a-Glance
Only a couple of weeks away from Opening Day, let's check in on each position around Major League Baseball.
Monday, March 4, 2013
Small Sample Size Much?
How 'bout this insignificant sample size?
The Spring 2013 Small Sample Size Extravaganza has begun. Please share blatant SSS examples, in our comment section, or on social media. We could start a Small Sample Size tumblr, which is obviously an untapped social media landscape.
The day before, we got a "Looks like he's locked in."#Royals 1B Eric Hosmer with two swinging strikeouts so far after going three for three in Saturday's victory.
— Bob Dutton (@Royals_Report) March 3, 2013
Eric Hosmer with an oppo homer in the fifth. Also has two oppo doubles. Looks like he's locked in. #Royals lead Giants 5-2.We don't mean to criticize. @Royals_Report is one of the best in the business. Besides that, part of the fun is getting caught up in the moment. Sometimes it's no fun to wait for all the data to come in. A "jump to conclusions" mat is a fun idea because we want to jump to conclusions. We love when what we see with our eyes leads us to that moment, when it feels like whom we are rooting for can't miss a pitch, a shot, an open receiver, or a putt.
— Bob Dutton (@Royals_Report) March 2, 2013
The Spring 2013 Small Sample Size Extravaganza has begun. Please share blatant SSS examples, in our comment section, or on social media. We could start a Small Sample Size tumblr, which is obviously an untapped social media landscape.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
